SouthCoastMA

21 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

I'd like to see proof of this

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not exactly inspiring confidence there

Pattern is promising but who the hell really knows until we get some storms to track in the mid range. I'd be content with a few inches around mid month or just before the holidays..sans a Christmas grincher

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eric Fisher is probably fondling the OP 12z GFS on Twitter 

live look

From 11/13 through today, SSTs in Cape Cod bay dropped from 57° to 49°.  It's been a steady drop since the 'pattern change that never happenend'

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Initially it was Dec 1.. then Dec 5. Now it looks like we lost the snower on Dec 8 and we get colder Dec 10. It’s been a slow steady delay which was the worry expressed . Not that it wouldn’t change to wintry , but that everything got delayed 

so models in the long range were off about 2 days? doesn't seem like something to get bent out of shape over

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno, I’m fine with my climo. Doesn’t irk me.

I've been conditioned to accept it, and it helps to know that we can still score on high end storms from time to time. Plus, other things like wind and the occasional OES keep it somewhat interesting. 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no lashing out at all. I’ve been around a long time . I’ve fallen for this excitement before and it almost always is pushed back and back .. like a Judge HR over the monster 

Would you rather have them currently showing a death vortex over GOA and a raging +NAO. No reason to panic yet on 11/22

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I share the same wish during the holiday period....but most of our great Decembers and white Xmases happened because of snowy periods in mid to late December and not because of snow on December 2nd or something. His expectations of the T-day through December 5th period are completely unrealistic....it's like a 1 in 10 shot at best of what he wishes for. Maybe even less since he also never wants it to melt if we happen to get a snow event during that period.

Oh yeah..I'm just ribbing him - I was a big fan of the December 2020 period prior to the epic grincher. Like you said, the panic this early is absurd - especially with ensembles looking pretty good attm. 

Kevin only wants snow in December so he can be like a kid in his jammies around the holidays, sipping hot chocolate, and looking out the window at the snow. He has a lot invested in December panning out, hence the lashing out. 

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Wednesday through Friday AN. Run at Record warmth this weekend. Mowvember continues, after a one week hiatus. 

Might touch low 50's here at one point this weekend? What record highs are you talking about? Models are mostly showing 40's to near 50

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

F’ing GD pig. Rays 2nd half December to remember turning into December to go on long bender

While Ginx train taking one up the rear ender 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro was close

eh..through central PA / upstate NY. need some serious changes

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Aren’t SWFE’s the best for Eastern SNE chances in early December . No East flow just a good thump that requires a cold antecedent airmass

Yes. any BL winds blowing 1° from the direction of the ocean and we toast, typically.  I'd take a SWFE. If I recall wasn't that Nov 18? 

Cape Cod bay is 55° currently. Maybe in another month we'll have a bit more wiggle room..but not much until January down here. 

Well we've gone from 60's and 70's, with TP hanging out of my shorts last weekend to consistent 30's and 40's - with a couple days in the 50's after TDay possible, before we head back to the 30/40's again. I'd say it's been a change. 

Orchard park crushed

Sea temp is 55° right now. I typically don't even look at models until after Thanksgiving, unless there's anomalous cold around along with a good setup - which next week seems to have at the moment. Still would need to thread the needle to score down in these parts. 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snow showers on and off this afternoon. The way Nov should be 

yeah looks like there's some rain/graupel showers on radar. enjoy

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No storm on euro lol. Just a weak system with a few ra/sn shwrs.

The energy got cutoff completely into the SW. 0z hinted at this but 12z went all in. Still a bias?

just another model

I like where the euro sits for next weekend. Looks like part of the energy breaks off in the southwest, unlike the 6z GFS. If the ridging out west holds a bit longer maybe there would be room for it to come up coast, but right now it all shunts east

How did I miss this thread. George already in mid-winter form

GFS with a few inches of OES the weekend of Thanksgiving. Frigid run

72/70

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She’s cutting west and phasing Fri nite 

and it will also be out of here by 11am Sat, maybe earlier if Euro is right 

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We still have oaks to go.

yeah the oaks take forever. We'll be doing final cleanups in early December, but that's standard down here. 

my maples are 99% bare, and the black locusts probably have a week left.