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TugHillMatt

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Everything posted by TugHillMatt

  1. TugHillMatt
    Yeah, the Para GFS snow map looks much worse than previous runs for central NY. Any more north and we're out of the game. I wish we could just have a synoptic system where we didn't have to worry about it too far south to all of a sudden being too far north and warm punches and dry slots, etc...............
  2. TugHillMatt
    That's a good point too!
  3. TugHillMatt
    Thanks. Yes, where are the coastal systems? It's odd hearing about the airmass not being colder, as it has been a cold weekend. Just shows how shallow the cold has been this year. Hopefully we can keep the Low south of NY/PA border. Most recent RAP also came north. Looks great for the Thruway corridor, but getting a bit nervous...about the points you have made.
  4. TugHillMatt
    Gotta sniff the taint.... If the Great Lakes Magnet pulls the Low any farther North, we're done.
  5. TugHillMatt
    So basically it goes back to us hoping for a southern track so we get an inch or two instead of a northern track that would give other locations a decent amount...but because of the lake plain, we will get mix/rain? Tough place for synoptic events, isn't it?
  6. TugHillMatt
    "Hitchcock" certainly wrote a "horror" of a weather discussion... the basic tone was "meh" with words like "minor" and "few" scattered throughout. If we end up in a long period of mixing, I swear.....................................................................................
  7. TugHillMatt
    Looks like things are definitely trending more interesting for this week, especially for those of us south of Lake Ontario. After this system comes through, lake effect snow showers will probably keep it looking wintry from the sky as well. Thursday night and Friday could see snow squalls.
  8. TugHillMatt
    Rap is also on board, with a nice 3 to 6 inches for all of us W/C NY Snow weenies...this is at the very end of its run with snow still ongoing...
  9. TugHillMatt
    3k isn't buying it. But it's always a stingy mofo.
  10. TugHillMatt
    Well, would you look at that!?!? Perhaps "our" curse is on winter break? At least for one run...
  11. TugHillMatt
    Looks like the Euro.
  12. TugHillMatt
    Euro basically has this as mostly a Primary Low event that makes it farther north and then moves east, with a later fizzle.
  13. TugHillMatt
    It's a rather narrow band, especially on Euro, so hopefully we can lock it in the next 48 hours.
  14. TugHillMatt
    I was just gonna say....YES, PLEASE!
  15. TugHillMatt
    Hmmm...watching this event for Tuesday...at present, it looks better for Central NY. We went from it being a fizzler with maybe an inch or two...to now a secondary development with the possibility of 3 to 6 inches..perhaps 4 to 8 inches depending on ratios. My biggest concern is to see if trends continue where the secondary will do it's "late development" that seems to always happen anymore and we end up on the western edge with an inch or two.
  16. TugHillMatt
    Ugh. It does look like the warmth may be muted a bit as it heads east though. I haven't been paying much attention to long for February. What's it looking like?
  17. TugHillMatt
    Yeah, didn't look like cutters....but a whole bunch of smaller systems with still possibly some mix issues.
  18. TugHillMatt
    Noticed it was pretty quiet on here, so checked out the 00Z runs and now I know why. Another Binghamton Synoptic special?
  19. TugHillMatt
    Congrats! I'm excited for you! What point of reference are you near?
  20. TugHillMatt
    Looks like my guesstimate was right on (per BGM Nws) .Onondaga County... Baldwinsville 11.5 in 1130 AM 01/23 43.16N/76.33W Jamesville 11.0 in 0900 AM 01/23 42.98N/76.07W 1 SE Taunton 8.3 in 1038 AM 01/23 43.02N/76.20W
  21. TugHillMatt
    I'm not getting my hopes up at all for synoptic snow this upcoming week. They have all been failures this winter, and not much has changed in the synoptic pattern to say otherwise. If it stays south it will be weak sauce...if it goes north it will be pull in warm air. Veeeeeeeery thin margin for decent snows.
  22. TugHillMatt
    Glad you guys finally got some snow cover there too. From the snowfall reports, it looks like north of Buffalo and then areas of the Finger Lakes (like Geneva) may still have grass showing.
  23. TugHillMatt
    We get it. You're trying to make it look like the snow is so high it reaches above the camera....Do you work at the Rochester airport?
  24. TugHillMatt
    I'd buy a mountain in Japan if I won.
  25. TugHillMatt
    Thanks for sharing your pics and updates from up there! Safe travels back to SW VA!
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