olafminesaw

Yeah I think it's just frustration at losing the once in a generation snowstorm potential. I find myself chasing the high of the "big one", that I experienced when I was a kid. But I know at the end of the day it will come ago and melt away and my life overall won't be better or worse as a result of what happens. Snow is a gift at the end of the day

Yep, reposting what I shared yesterday. This low track was 2" snow, 2" sleet and minimal ZR in the triad

6z Euro is largely the same, maybe a touch south overall. The bleeding stops now, we can only hope

Totally agree. I do think there is an upside with more moisture early on Saturday from overrunning where the triangle/triad could over perform.

And the full run

GEFS still not buying the Euro, ticked south at 6z

Praying for a sleet bomb and not the ZR Nightmare the Euro depicts at this point. The 6z GFS at least didn't make any big jumps north so maybe the 6z suite can stop the bleeding (although I know many believe the corpse to be already dead)

Sometimes model tracking feels kinda like this, you get the weight on there just right, hold your breath and...

There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way

FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow

Earlier phasing and East. Should be a big run with a stout HP well placed

Yep, no big changes so far, just a tick north

I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs

This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm

I know everyone was nervous about that Euro run, but if it played out as depicted that front end thump of snow would be epic. Over 1" per hour rates possible