olafminesaw

The Nokia 3310 of hurricanes

It's way out there, but the NAM has a pretty nasty signature for tornadoes on the back end on Sunday

This radar image from recon seems to refute any signs of ERC that microwave indicated a few hours earlier

Destin has a bunch of dense housing and touristy buildings/hotels right on/near the beach too, one of the more vulnerable areas that's more urban

Seemingly no pressure rose yet. First pass 957 extrap

Kinda looks like a double eyewall has appeared?

Good writeup on Opal here, provides an excellent analog for impacts, albeit Opal was a category stronger at peak and landfall. Supports the idea of 10 ft storm surge and 100 mph + gusts at landfall along the immediate coast with hurricane Force gusts just inland https://www.weather.gov/mob/opal

Coming in now for a rare pass #6

Down from 960 to 959 MB on that latest dropsonde. Convection doing work

Another convective tower trying to wrap around the eye as it fights some intense shear on the West side. Wish we had one more pass to see if pressure drops or holds steady

Likely near peak intensity at just over major hurricanes strength right now with pressure leveling off around 960 MB and winds catching up to pressure now supporting a major hurricane around 115-120 at the surface

A nice way to display the impacts (I think a little over cooked on the inland gusts though)

The latest blend of models. Still looking promising