olafminesaw

So close to a big boom, just not quite there with the coastal. The tiniest bit more tilt and we would all be quite pleased, as it stands this is a big run for coastal areas

GFS looks like an improvement in the upper levels,further west with the trough and a tiny bit more negative tilt

Exactly. We need to rely on the Globals now to nail down the tilt and then once the mesoscale models come into agreement on the low placement we can start to talk details. A more Easterly/offshore track is still possible, but globals generally don't show that solution

RGEM has the screw zone more over the triad rather than Raleigh. Focuses energy on the coastal portion and drives the ULL moisture south

Also I gotta say if you live in upstate SC/NE GA trends have been great for you guys over the past 12 hours. Would not be surprised at all to see Greenville SC get 6"+

GRAF kinda mirrors the NAM, so I do think the concern is legit. It's wait and see time

This is a now-casting event. Please do not live and die by every run of the NAM. Someone will be in the screw zone, someone will get a surprise foot

One thing that could be a positive for the Piedmont is if the storm continues to tick south that initial deformation band will more likely settle over the area.

models are struggling to resolve these blobs of convection and how/when/where these pieces will come together as a consolidated low. A bit more negative tilt would make a huge difference East of 85 as consolidation would happen earlier. Kinda running out of time for big shifts,but the Euro kinda moved in that direction set the orientation of the trough

I am guessing most of those Eastern solutions are showing an elongated low with deeper pressure on the East side. The GFS OP has this feature, but the primary low on the West side

The ULL dug further south. The coastal low pops off the coast but doesn't have time to consolidate before moving off shore. Most of the moisture is to the East, need more negative tilt to throw moisture back to the west.

Ensembles still looking solid.

Through dinnertime Friday on the HRRR