olafminesaw

The latest GRAF is also super light with precip. I don't think that the triad is going to get more than a dusting, based on the trend on the short range models

Sad trombone noises

Speaking of which, the HRRR joins many other models in painting the southern band directly over Guilford county. Schrödinger's snow band if you will.

Putting all my money on wherever the HRRR doesn't have the band

The hires RGEM killed it on the last two storms. Especially the one two weekends ago, but here's a run from Friday that did fairly well as well

RAP illustrates my thoughts. Need to be able to get moisture and the cold to push far enough south, before cold/dry air shuts off the moisture. Moisture North of the warm front may be somewhat limited but concentrated in a band or two that may over perform. The RAP is a bit further north than the rest of guidance, so I would expect the green zone to set up right along I85

Some pretty insane banding showing up on the hires RGEM

Actually I would say Eastern Tennessee is the King of the warm nose and North Carolina is the court Jester

One reason we are seeing less potential in NC is a small warm nose showing up on short range models. It was looking like a changeover to snow at around 35 yesterday but now right around freezing for the changeover with some ZR mixed in

Some models showing a little light ZR as well. The pavement will still be holding some of the cold we've had especially in the shade so roads could certainly be slick

Definitely seeing most models back off a bit this morning. Still a decent threat north of the VA border. A dusting to half an inch possible North of 85 and may include the Triangle if everything goes right

The Euro AI has been very consistent in showing a maximum along the VA border

The AI GFS looks nice too

Yeah it's great to see that we could get accumulating snow even with the less amplified solutions knowing that a more amplified look would increase rates and crash temps even faster. That is, if the trough can stay sufficiently far south