olafminesaw

.75 QPF across the Eastern 2/3 of North Carolina, for both the GEFS and EPS. Reduced by 25% to get an idea of the footprint of snowfall = 6-10" snowfall at 15:1 ratios. Banding within that broad footprint will allow for 12-18". Some dry slotting may occur West/East of that band where "only" 3-6" falls. The footprint and magnitude of this general consensus will continue to shifts as models try to resolve the Dance of the ULL and developing powerful storm

3-6"+feels like a good bet right now. 8-16" is within reach but models still have lots to resolve, so trying to stay reasonable about the more extreme solutions

GFS is going to be a big hit, but again, I would tread with caution given the complexity of the interaction as the low bombs out and consolidated

Changes mostly noise I think, which is good because it continues to be on the amplified end of the spectrum

A bit of Fujiwara effect going on between the low forming in the Bahamas and along the coast. Could lead to either a track more to the East, or some pretty incredible totals if the Bhama low can swing the primary low back to the west end stall out

Doesn't look much different to me so far.

My hourly forecast in Greensboro is showing 8". The highest I've seen this far out since moving here in 2018

RGEM is a big hit

I am thinking the sooner the trough digs and tilts negative the better shot the coastal low will have to become dominant and cause both lows to consolidate further west?

I would want to be in the triangle from Rocky Mount to nags head to VA Beach for this storm

NAM is A bit more positively tilted and faster.

NAM has light snow breaking out from the VA border and North 10 AM Friday. Getting the party started early!

Hope it works out better than this one (in all seriousness, that's a pretty reasonable map all things considered)

0z vs 6z EPS is a nice uptrend