olafminesaw

Yep, those two max zones have been showing up on a lot of guidance. Feels familiar (although this time the boom zones will be around an inch)

Big wedge, sleet to ice to rain potential on this one I fear

Hires models conceding to King Hires-RGEM and showing very little moisture East of 77

We should have known. It can only snow on the weekend

Wet bulb temp running 4 degrees below forecast at GSO

We are relying on lift from the WAA to wring moisture out after the frontal passage. Since our system remains weak, it only will produce light precip

N and West of 85 looking pretty dry. My gut is somewhere between Raleigh/Rocky Mount/Greenville will do well as well as the northern foothills. Hires models this morning have trended in that direction as well

Can you spot the dry slot?

Around Valentine's Day features a cutter on all models. Seems like some potential for CAD/messy ice situation depending on track/ridge placement. Also could feature borderline severe if the low tracks across New England instead of PA

The latest GRAF is also super light with precip. I don't think that the triad is going to get more than a dusting, based on the trend on the short range models

Sad trombone noises

Speaking of which, the HRRR joins many other models in painting the southern band directly over Guilford county. Schrödinger's snow band if you will.