olafminesaw

Focus is naturally on whether this will be a US threat, but I am very concerned about possible impacts of a slow moving hurricane passing directly over the Caribbean islands. Particularly Haiti which is under a significant humanitarian disaster from ongoing gang violence and political turmoil

And the Sandhills all the way to near the coast. Just inland from Jaxonville got down into the upper 30s

Alas seems pretty paltry West of I95

Pretty crazy how closely 2015 matches to this season

Could be the first season since 2015 without a land falling US hurricane. Ironic given that 2015 featured Joaquin, which like Imelda was forecasted to hook into the coast from the Bahamas a few days out but exited stage right instead

No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI

I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed

Models haven't really been showing meaningful organization for another 24 hours or so, so we appear to be on track

Pretty grim for a mean

I could see in a setup like this a primary flood zone near/North of where the center stalls, as well as a secondary flood zone where banding sets up away from the core of the system. With onshore flow and moisture being wrung out between the storm and the HP it the secondary banding could overperform

A bit more towards the stalled solution, with Humberto and Imelda's latitude closer together

For sure. On the one hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to keep 94L from moving northward enough to be picked up by the ULL, allowing for an escape route. On the other hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to move more Polward (East) away from 94L, having less influence

Just over an hour apart