olafminesaw

Looks like a great upslope event too for our mountain friends

Dewpoints actual vs HRRR at 3 pm: GSO -10 CLT -1 RAH -9 ROA -0 This tells me the warm front to the south has not advanced as far north as modeled. If this continues I would expect the rain/snow line as well as the heavier rates to shift south, although too early too have any confidence in this scenario based on OBS

A bit of good news, dewpoints running a few degrees lower then forecast this afternoon

Soundings for Guilford county, just north, and just south. Truly could go either way at this point

The North trend is back better than ever. Looks like a great even for the central/Southern VA Piedmont. Still some hope for the Northern NC Piedmont, but fading

Seems reasonable

Overall not a good set of runs at 18z for the I40 corridor. Teetering on the edge, so hopefully things will swing back south overnight

It's been good to see the trend towards a juicier system. At the same time we walk a tightrope where the system maybe trending North pushing the rain snow line north of the VA border. This may not get resolved until precip is falling here in the battle zone (Northern NC Piedmont). Looks great up your way regardless

I think the RGEM depicts how this will play out with the totals south of the VA border being rate dependent (a dusting for many but locally 2")

Cold bias in mind, but shows how rates can push the rain, snow, sleet line south. These temp boundaries can yield impressive banding relative to what the global models show, so something to keep in mind. A very tricky forecast with a boom and bust zone likely

December climo for 1" snowfalls before 2005 and after 2005. Even before 2005 they were a 10-30% chance outside the mountains in any given year. We are fortunate to be even talking about the possibility of snow Mountains are a different matter

We seem to be narrowing in on a higher likelihood of some light snowfall. Lots of details to be ironed out, with uncertainty about moisture and timing which opens the door for a modern moderate impact event (definitely less likely). Any chance for a higher potential coastal storm can probably be ruled out