olafminesaw

What a difference 8 hours makes

I think there's going to be two factors at play leading to steady state through landfall: baroclonic forcing leading to pressure drop (seeing now), and shear weakening one half of the storm allowing dry air in and an expansion of the wind field

Wow, confirmation from the second plane too, 951.5 at least. So probably ~956mb

Whoa, need confirmation from the drop, but 952.8 MB extrap , vs the pass before at 958.0 (drop was 963)

The Nokia 3310 of hurricanes

It's way out there, but the NAM has a pretty nasty signature for tornadoes on the back end on Sunday

This radar image from recon seems to refute any signs of ERC that microwave indicated a few hours earlier

Destin has a bunch of dense housing and touristy buildings/hotels right on/near the beach too, one of the more vulnerable areas that's more urban

Seemingly no pressure rose yet. First pass 957 extrap

Kinda looks like a double eyewall has appeared?

Good writeup on Opal here, provides an excellent analog for impacts, albeit Opal was a category stronger at peak and landfall. Supports the idea of 10 ft storm surge and 100 mph + gusts at landfall along the immediate coast with hurricane Force gusts just inland https://www.weather.gov/mob/opal

Coming in now for a rare pass #6

Down from 960 to 959 MB on that latest dropsonde. Convection doing work