olafminesaw

Over a third of the American population is now under a winter storm warning

https://tinyurl.com/ypmmjduh Lots of fun data to play around with here

These are for Greensboro

Worst case 90th percentile map from RAH

This seems plausible with the possibility of that cutoff shifting north or south

Unfortunately the dry slot may mean freezing drizzle early that would otherwise be sleet. In general global models struggle with QPF distribution,so while I don't think the cutoff of heaviest precip is nailed down, I would tend to disregard the way the globals broad brush uniform heavy precip

NAM actually has a band of very heavy sleet across the area. I think with the intensity of the WAA and the moisture feed it is likely that the dry slot won't be as significant factor as normally is the case with a miller B.

REFS Plumes For Greensboro VS Raleigh at hour 60, Raleigh more of a ZR sounding while GSO more of a sleet

Thanks! Gets confusing to the public when maybe an area under a winter storm warning could get more ice than an ice storm warning, when ice is the more serious impact to prepare for

How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?

Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details

Yeah pretty much, at the surface anyway. Stronger CAD despite not really jumping south at all

Sleet bomb is back on the menu boys and girls