olafminesaw

Toeing the wedge but the phase diagrams seem to agree

Bright sunshine across the Piedmont. Wasn't expecting that!

Persistent little strip of drizzle. RAH could have the lowest high temp in the whole state today

Back below average ACE

Good point, there's a pretty big difference between the beginning and end of September climatologically. Also not a huge data set to draw firm conclusions on.

Of the 22 systems since 1980 to pass within 100 miles of the British Virgin Islands in September, 5 made landfall in the us (22%). This feels like a reasonable benchmark based on model consensus, although as Wxwatcher007 says above, there is a high degree of uncertainty until a LLC develops. I think odds of this system never developing at all have gone up this morning with lots of shear potentially across the Carribean.

Even with the GFS coming south to start the run, if I take it's position at hour 78: there have been 20 storms since 1980 to pass within 100 miles of that point in September, of which only 2 made landfall in the US, the rest recurved well east. The two exceptions are Hugo and Georges (1998). Georges moved through the heart of the Greater Antilles hitting every island along the way. It is the furthest south of this grouping in the Caribbean as well, so a track south of the islands would be unprecedented

This coupled with the 12 Euro, which is way south and breaks up a weak system over Hispanola, means landfall odds have increased this afternoon (both for the Caribbean and Conus). Still no reason to be concerned just yet as we watch the windshield wiper effect.

Fairly good agreement on a trough over the Eastern Conus in modeling in agreement with the overall troughy pattern that has been established, leads to higher than normal confidence in a recurve

We should fall around 73.4 (based on some rough estimates), which would put us just outside the top 5. What is really impressive is the next lowest of this century is 2013 at 24.7, which ranks 22nd. We did it mostly through high temperatures remaining lower, with no particularly anomalous lows. That's the way to do August!

For sure. We do tend to dry out this time of year, but soil moisture went from well above average to slightly below average. Could be some rain next week.

Feels like the kind of year for some kind of wonky subtropical landfall

Just a perfect evening for a stroll (I won't complain about this year's particularly persistent crop of mosquitos)

We obviously still have a good deal of surplus rain from July into the first week in August in Greensboro. However, with about a third of an inch of rain since the 9th, and entering what appears to be a stable period of dry weather and low dewpoints, we may get some minor drought conditions. No big deal, but it's just crazy how we get stuck in these persistent patterns this year.

Here's what the CPC put out in May. We should end up slightly above average I think for the whole summer so not bad