olafminesaw

Loving this approach, feel like the NHC should adopt something like this

Seems to be strengthening around the solar minima fighting back shear with convection then levels out as soon as convection starts to die down during the daytime.

HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall

Yup ...

Yeah recon just found 988, so still fairly decent intensification which is quite impressive given how sheared it looks Also a nice little core evident on microwave:

Yeah the center is squarely under the convective burst ongoing at the moment, would expect another substantial drop on the next pass

Whoa

Landfall right along the FL/AL line seems like the best bet right now

Who would have thought as of a year or two ago the NHC would already be explicitly using AI models as part of their forecast in 2026 (courtesy of Google, of all entities)

Yeah, convection will likely win the battle and pull/consolidate the llc, but it may take time (12+ hrs) before this really starts taking off

It's easy to forget because of our unprecedented streak of strengthening hurricanes at landfalls in the GOM, but I remember how in the early 2000s it felt inevitable that significant weakening would occur at landfall along the GOM coast

Piedmont split looking strong! At least we won't wiff this one right?

And the GFS has folded like a house of cards

The GFS is so bad it has quite literally been replaced by AI