olafminesaw

Right? It's actually a piece of energy leftover from last weekend's storm that swings around and becomes the northern stream energy

You know something is going right when the mid Atlantic forum starts stirring up trouble in here

He has a point, we are still in a relatively delicate position. However, spread will continue to narrow. If we can hold until Tommorow nights runs, we'll be feeling pretty good.

Listen, if we have to worry about sleet cutting into our totals, we're talking some pretty epic totals.

Oh my...

It serves as an appetizer to the rest of the globals, but is hot garbage

There really aren't huge differences between the EUro and GFS, wouldn't take much to trend towards a big storm or towards nothing: EURO GFS

12Z Full phase: Canadian, GFS, Partial/late Phase: Euro⏫, Euro AI, AI GFS No phase: UKMET⏬, ICON, NEXT model⏬ Confidence is growing in the partial phase scenario, but all options still on the table

It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro

Everything trended West/slower with the last storm, so not entirely unreasonable to expect

EPS also looked improved. Just waiting on NEXT to wrap up the 12z suite

Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time

Euro AI also jumps east. Probably about time to take the GFS around back and put it out of its misery