olafminesaw

AI models favor this solution with the highest totals in NE NC and a sharp cutoff west of the Triangle

I have a feeling that while the NW trend is our friend for now, it will become the villain before it is all said and done, at least for those East of 85

Subtle improvements through 84 on the Euro I think. Hard to say yet if just noise

The 12z OP was an amplified outlier to it's ensemble to some degree, so it makes sense that the op and mean split the difference and became aligned at 18z

Boom big increase from 12z

At 84 the RGEM looks good with respect to the trough orientation, but again, not quite in range

Third the of weather club: toss the 84 hour NAM in the garbage and wait for the RGEM to run

I thought more in line with the Euro than the GFS, but somewhere in between. Not worth dissecting the 84 hr NAM though

FWIW the Euro AI looked better than the OP at 500 mb, while the GFS AI generally supports the OP GFS

Ironically, unless all other models fold to the GFS, warm air aloft could be the savior of many with this system

Looks like 10-15% support the GFS

AI GFS Ensembles

Not a disaster but not a step towards the GFS either.

Yeah, some big differences in surface low location to resolve. Unclear if along 85 or the coastal plain will be the spot to be just yet

As does the HRRR. As with the Sunday event, jet stream dynamics coming into play, often only gets picked up by short range models. Not saying something will happen on Thursday, but just something to keep an eye on