olafminesaw

My deep dive analysis on the 12z model suite can be found below:

Thermals were actually a touch colder this run on the GFS

Continues the trend towards late bloomer.

A bit south/more positive tilt through 69, seems to be a step towards the Euro

RGEM tilts neutral too late and too far north so it's a late bloomer, best precip over VA by the time the cold air arrives. Axis of best dynamics over DC

Timing will be key too, if we can get that band of WAA moisture to set up early enough in the AM it will be easier for temps to crash and snow to start accumulating

The things is, we're in a great spot to thread the needle in terms of model spread. It's just frustrating we have no wiggle room one way or the other and it's trended that way for a days now (even as track/vortex evolution has trended favorable)

I'm beginning to believe something like this is our best shot at accumulating snow with rain changing over to snow at the end

My biggest concern is the trend towards the low popping off the coast further north, in a more miller B fashion. This would allow more warm air to migrate inland and best dynamics to stay north of the VA border until the low starts moving more NE. At that point it becomes a cold chasing moisture kind of situation

It brings the arctic front in late, Eric Webb had mentioned this is a concern for East/central NC. I also noticed it is developing moisture much later/further north (in addition to bringing more moisture West/inland)

RGEM and ICON start the party off significantly more amped than 18z

Hard to take it seriously, it's holding the trough way back in Texas while the rest of guidance has it over the central gulf coast

AI GEFS

AI models favor this solution with the highest totals in NE NC and a sharp cutoff west of the Triangle

I have a feeling that while the NW trend is our friend for now, it will become the villain before it is all said and done, at least for those East of 85