mimillman

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z RGEM only goes out to 48hr...but it would be way north.

At 48hr SLP is just west of Fargo, ND...and is on a heading to go towards MSP. Yes, I said MSP.

Chicago is becoming the new DC. It’s coming for you too 

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Definitely south. Over Galena at hr 60

 Good deal south of 18z, but still on the northern edge of guidance along with the GFS.

One can hope the 00z suite will respectively follow suit 

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good memories.  What a stretch that was... that was like an entire season's worth of snow in 10 days 

I grew up on the east coast. Sucks to be there most of the time, but every now and then, you’d rather be nowhere else...

Also just thought of something. This is a classic case of American guidance vs rest of world...not like the Euro is a southern outlier amongst the globals...

CMC and Ukie are also further south

Will be a pretty major disappointment for ECMWF if the GFS scores this coup

19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The 12z ECMWF was south of the 6z run.

10-15” across N. Illinois this run.


.

Looked a bit south of 00z even

18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Still pretty sizable spread on the GEFS. The operational model trends except for UKMET are what they are today, though not gonna punt this for northern IL. This synoptic setup is a tough one for the models to nail and some of the important features are in a data void area.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks RC.

E3/E20 are how I see this eventually unfolding, favoring the IL/WI border. 

12 minutes ago, Baum said:

storm threads are not just for your back yard.

I think you’re a little biased in this matter :p 

Also if this doesn’t pan out, there should be some rule to disallow members other than Cyclone from starting storm threads

UKMET still weaker and south

FV3 nearly identical surface low placement as last night over the WI/IL border. 995mb low

If the trends are correct, would be a major victory for the GFS, aside from yesterday’s runs which had capitulated.

Once again, still not fully buying this and I believe it will correct south some. Perhaps a blend of what we saw yesterday and today.

From 12z yesterday to 12z today, the GFS has shifted approximately 150 miles north 

Great run for Minneapolis and Madison

Looks like GFS should come north basis H5

Not buying the low will track north of the Illinois border...yet.

On the last storm, were all models (including the NAM) still north at this timeframe? I remember it was within 48 hours they all started to converge south, but can’t remember if there was an outlier out around hour 72-84.

Would like to see a shift back south at 12z. The trend north in guidance is a bit unnerving.

Optimistic though given what we saw with the previous two systems.

Hard to tell with the UKMET but track looks Euro-esque. SLP sitting over Terre Haute, IN at hour 96

I continue to like northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin for a widespread 6”+ event. Somewhere between the GFS and the Euro.

Euro is another good run. Decent lake enhancement signal too for SE Wisconsin.

With the ratios, this should make for something special. Will be a fun few days of tracking.

Big difference on the 12z GFS was the Sunday clipper which was more amped and further south, allowing heights out ahead of Monday’s events to lower.

Classic GFS cave 

Pretty clear disconnect between the GFS and the FV3. Grain of salt. Hopefully more clarity by Friday.

Edit: Also some good spread on the ensembles. A number of solid hits in Wisconsin, a number for Illinois

I feel pretty good about this one for the Chicago metro. A bit unnerving the northern shifts in this afternoons guidance, but as we saw with the last two systems, south trend inside 72 hours is the way to go

Should be an interesting afternoon AFD