I'm not sure what would suck more about having the Euro bust badly, greatly reduced totals from this storm or shattered confidence in the model going forward for the rest of the winter. lol
I'm not sure people grasp that. I was not even slated for more than -SN until midnight and it looks like what's pivoting in will be at or just ahead of that time frame. We'll see where it goes from there but current obs can sometimes deceive folks from the overall modeled solutions.
BOX not buying. They are riding a different horse:
OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
They're map has not updated from this morning but my 4:30 zone forecast is still 18-24"
Apparently neither are any of the NWS offices. BOX has not updated map but Albany, Upton and GYX all look like updated maps (time sigs) that keep W NE well in the game. I trust their collective ability to interpret models.
some of these runs this morning really have the I-91 crowd in MA riding the edge of good and great. I'm throwing my money on the Euro and spinning the wheel.
I'm not really buying into some of the models that are spitting out .25" qpf back here. That would only happen in a significant move E or in a wound up tighter moisture field. Not saying it couldn't happen but NWS certainly isn't going with those solutions.