DeltaT13

I'm home from work, less stressed, and fed.  Of course the GFS continues to lure me like a carrot on a stick, haha,. This 0z run tonight will be very significant..  

10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Big warmup?  Im leaving this thread for sure!

OUCH!!!

Officially losing steam on this one, I guess thats what happens when you track from 240 hours out, haha (We all know better too).  We'll get some front end snow and some lake enhancement.  It'll be wintry for a couple days, just not a blockbuster.  Thus is life.  Looking further out I see some hints a big warmup to start February, that has me more depressed than anything.  

Buffalo already posting watches. “That’s a bold move cotton, let’s see if it pays off.”

6 minutes ago, katodog said:

is this good for snow for us or bad ?

Very bad.  Coastal transfers are the bane of WNY snow lovers existence.  

16 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

The sun is out in downtown Syracuse. First time since Sunday. Looks good even though it wont last.

Get out of here with that nonsense.  We don't need sun during January and February "aint nobody got time for dat"   All you closet summer lovers make me sick -   (i'm looking in your direction Buffaloweather)

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

One other quick thing I noticed perusing the 12Z runs so far.  The lake effect potential through at least the next 7 days looks pretty tame.  Not what I was expecting with the cold dropping in.  But on the flip side the synoptic stays active, so that's a good trade-off.  Maybe too many highs and lows ripping through during this period to allow the lake effect machine to kick in.  

Looks like a lot of bone dry anticyclonic air to me.  Just crushing inversions and no moisture to work with.  Right behind these systems will get a little blast but nothing sustained.  

7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

FV3 crushes WNY

It certainly does and it has slowed down by a good 12 hours or so.  It's a pretty big outlier at this point though so I can't cherry pick that model.  

15 minutes ago, katodog said:

accuweather has rochester at 6-12" only

With the current trend that actually seems pretty plausible and not the worst.  6 would be disappointing, 12 would be fine.  

Well I can breathe for another 6 hours.  It sounds like a cheesy excuse but that 0z run really did seem to have some convective feedback issues.  I'm a nervous wreck with this storm.  

Great minds think alike B-lo Bumble!

Hey wait, I know what to blame... convective feedback, hahaha.  Joking aside, that secondary surface low does pop in the deep convection south of the parent storm stringing out the system and weakening the system as a whole.  Hopefully it will correct away from that.   

Well kids, I've seen enough for tonight, off to bed.  This is the gut punch I've been expecting.  I'm certainly not giving up but that run is a bit of a crusher.  

Jesus, the GFS is going all Ukie on us.  oh man...there it is.  There are tricks up this storms sleeve

Just now, WesterlyWx said:

00z GFS coming in a good bit weaker and SE thru hour 90.

Yeah, its a much more elongated low pressure center, less organized.  This might help slow that NW trend but I'd still like to see a sub 1000mb system coming out of the Ohio valley.  We need a happy medium here.  

I actually think the plains blizzard warnings are way more obnoxious/overused even though they technically meet the criteria.  Plains storms seem so damn lame most of the time.  Boston has gotten bigger synoptic storms than we have for the most part plus they have a gigantic sprawling disastrous road network.  But yeah, **** Boston...they are pansies sometimes.  

Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Sure is.  I would love to ride out a storm like this somewhere high up in the Sierra's when it slams into the coast.  Just a general 80-120" snowfall about 8K feet...

Would be an incredible experience for sure, especially with 80-100mph winds.   The sierras get rocked routinely but this storm seems more like a every 2 or 3 year type of event.  Maybe more.  I havent seen a warning map like this in Cali in for awhile.  

1 minute ago, WNash said:

That’s not a bad thing. Some WFOs (*cough*BOSTON*cough*) throw up a blizzard warning several times a year for stuff we would laugh at.

There is still a blizzard warning.  It just goes straight from Winter Storm Watch to Blizzard warning now.  

As a quick side note, anyone looking at what our storm is doing when it hits Cali?  That is some insane shit right there.  

This peak south of Tahoe is forecasting 85-113 inches over a 3 day period.  Daaaamnnnnn  
 

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Goofus looks perfect

That 18z run has a mix well into the fingerlake  and we know that the mix line usually exceeds the models by 25 miles or so.  Getting a little too close for comfort IMO.  

1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

With that kind of Arctic air impinging upon the system from its Northwest, I'd think the system would somehow try to escape east or ENE, no? Unless we get a full phase, then all bets are off as we taint but for how long? Lots of difficult questions to answer now as we are still like few said four days away so one run at a time!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, I guess my fear is that a deeper initial low will be a touch slower and perhaps better aligned for a full phase. In that scenario I think it moves more north northeast as it pushes the warm sector and baroclinic zone further north. It certainly is running into a formidable arctic high so we have that going for us. The slightly strung out partial phase is probably a safer bet though. 

The last 4 runs of the Euro have all dropped 1mb with each run during the development stage near Missouri.  These runs are also a little more amped.  I'm nervous it just keeps ticking NW.  The southern Tier towards Bing is already getting into a mixed precip scenario with a setup like that.  

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

When do you guys think BUF issues WSW? I’d think 4 days out is too soon. Maybe tomorrow? 

Thursday PM AFD is my guess.  

I'm going to feel a hell of a lot more confident once the parent storm is on-shore.  Still another 36 hours before that happens.  Things will really lock in late tomorrow and Early Thursday.   Until, then hold on tight.  

1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Hey all!  Been a busy dude (still am) so my dearth of postings is the result. (New fiancee', new job, new life...lol!!)

But......we got ourselves quite the upcoming pattern!!!!  So....Hello!!!

That avatar is a sight for sore eyes!  Jump on in, the water is perfect!