Typhoon Tip

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Looking at most guidance ex the GFS op you can see how odds favor decent weather. GEM makes most sense to me.

Even the 12z GEFS has the surface low SE of the BM by 12z Sat. Not buying bs IVT on the GFS.

I'm on the fence ...

On one hand, the GFS rages on with an amplitude bias that surpasses all other amp bias' across all guidance, that kicks in around 96 hours.  The flow is slowing ( hemisphere ) and I suspect that it's amplitude bias shifts <-  ...etc.   Lot of intuitive experience with this guidance.   Plus, the GGEM is noted ( I mentioned that myself earlier) and would make sense.  It has good continuity between 00z and 12z, where the GFS is all over the place. I  just think the GFS trips over it's own amplitude fantasies. 

On the other hand, pure experience.   New England's unique p.o.s. spring climate cannot be discounted.

Pistol to the head I suspect the GGEM is closer to right with some caveats perhaps. 

One other aspect that's seasonally heading toward the back burner, but the teleonnectors are in aggregate a warm basis for the next 10 days to 2 week.  At some point that may and probably should begin to present in the guidance. 

4 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Those are the Adirondack high peaks.  Tug Hill is west of there, off the eastern end of Lake Ontario.

cool

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

flakes for some?

For the hawks nests maybe.  

I don't diminish the cold profile at this late in the year, but that's the eastern region of the Tug Hill, which has an elevation around 2,000 ... than again S Greens and up there near the Presidential Range in NH. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Placement of it seems in question...but yeah at least a weaker EML anyways. Maybe even lapse rates >7C/KM from 700-500. For the most part low levels are stable so if anything maybe some hail? Western areas may get srfc destabilization. 

I wouldn't honk, but could see 1 or 2 stronger storms.

which seems it must be 300% of normal for this stability hole of a wasteland

NAM went N with the warm boundary for tomorrow.  Has it pretty darn SRHy looking on this run between the Pike

and rt 2.  

Bit warmer too as a consequence.   

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think tomorrow may have a few stronger storms. Decent lapse rates moving in, good 850 theta-e. May even get some srfc base stuff near low center in the aftn?

I saw Ryan mentioned an EML ? 

Wow, look at LGA's grid data (NAM) for tomorrow at 18z

36000 38 32 29 -1098 022714 64 26 19 08

that's a pure open sear sun sky with a T1 of 26C  ...    the 2-m slope temperatures probably 31 C there with that straight west wind

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Jeez, we got down to 36F at like 5:30am.

Its already 60F at 9:15am.

hybrid air mass

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We flood?

Look at the 00z version... less than half. 

It's all over the map.  That second coastal/nor'easter spin up it's doing for Friday has been placed from NS to N of Maine to Cape Cod about every other run for the past 3 days.  

I guess what I'm getting at is that continuity being less than optimal doesn't lend to confidence that any one solution will turn out true.

Which ...haha, backs us into 'hope' that none of them will be, and we'll instead have a nicer weekend - like the GGEM.  Which isn't ideal, but is a helluva lot better than the GFS' misery grind.

Hopefully the 00z GGEM is right.  It suppresses that 'coastal' winter -like synopsis on Friday. 

I'll take the cool thicknesses but at least dry, and at least some partial sun, over the GFS' 70 straight hours of misty murk when not chilly light soul-sapping rains.

The GFS is ridic, man.  It does that extended cyclonic smear with east wind drab rains crap from a system that looks February only too warm for snow, for like 30 straight hours, only to then spin up a coastal nor'easter.  I'd love to see that be all be flat wrong for two reasons.  A, I don't want that.  But B, I'm sick of this model consummately trying to regress the advance into the warm season - it just always leans on the coldest most vile solution it can find at this time of year.

The only problem is, we are in a time of year when our climate also leans on the most vile solution it can find.  It's not helping ...

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Bruins were awfully close to being on the historic end of record you hate to see. Thank God for Lindholm and Pasta.

There was a lot about that game that was almost poetic

5 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Next weekend is coming around, to "okay", from dreadful - but man is the crap weather pattern fightin' hard.

I just need Sunday to end up on the fairer side - can you work that out ?

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

I'm a bit bummed actually. When I was looking at vort, wind, and lapse rates then got to QPF I was shocked the NAM wasn't spitting much of anything out during the afternoon. Initial thoughts were maybe too much cloud junk or maybe shortwave subsidence. But getting into soundings...bone dry within the mid-levels and even into the lower-levels. 

mm...I also wouldn't trust the NAM with those metrics.   It's been vacillating between completely cloud and mostly sunny for today, for example. 

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

blahhhh that's some nice shortwave forcing Wednesday with steep lapse rates but its awfully dry aloft. 

Dry micro bursts ?

Whenever I see one of these alerts down there

I'm always struck with this notion that the region in question is really in a constant state of meso-beta ( between synoptic and meso ) scale circulation, already.  Like a static, if not quantifiably rotating field relative to the surrounding medium, certainly intense potential vorticy. It could be a sunny day with no jet streak moving over, no DP gradient fairness, ...that region still slowly turns around itself.

Just a matter of whether it gets focused.

This is going to be really bunner comment here ...but, I've seen this watching slowly whirling leaves around the lee sides of buildings and when a gust comes over top ... it provides a wonder natural laboratory.  The slowly whirling leaves suddenly contract into a rapidly spinning column as/while the gust is roaring over from over the building and passes over that same region. 

It's really the same thing in principle.  We dawn with "slowly turning leaves" down there, and wait for some jet streak to come over top the "rockies building" - it passes over, triggers a lift, stretches the vortex which contracts it's diameter ... and away it columnates. It's like if we lived on a world that didn't have water, there'd be tornadoes there anyway -they just wouldn't be connected to any thunderstorm CBS.    heh interesting.

The mood is down in here today ( apparently ... heh ), because in being slaved to photo-electric effect, the brain circuitry misses the direct sunlight thru the warm air we were promised on people's faces this morning.

If it were 64 already with warm sun corpuscular rays beaming thru the morning budding trees of May and all that, we'd be spinning things more optimistically - understood. 

It could be ... vastly worse.   May 2005 makes this look like a Hawaiian get away.

1 hour ago, Patrick-02540 said:

I remember reading a social psychology/anthropology article in graduate school about this type of persistent cool, damp, and overcast weather being the driving force for the expansion of the British empire.  People can't tolerate this, and it is an impetus for relocation to warmer and drier areas.

You can go ahead and expand this perspective into the total arc of human evolution.

Climate has been a modulating force on migration pathways and establishment depots during all three major migration events out of Africa.  

This is known   yup.

No one asked me but the only thing stopping me from going elsewhere at this point is loneliness - ha... I don't want to to commit to any such venture, by my self, and have to start over at my age. 

Interestingly, there is this new reverse aging technology. Apparently it's working in mice. Like they've cracked the code of death. They've taken these mice that are geriatric, and reverted them back to svelte and virile.  Solving problems and getting phone numbers from the babes in the other cages.   If this were somehow scaled up to humans?  Yeah, given another 70 years of good looks, intelligence, and hot girls, might make it worth the while Lol.  

Most of my erstwhile life I was on the tolerant side of this New England's time stealing season known as spring. I was tolerant because I had a kind of tacit agreement with nature:  you get to violate my will to live in the spring, because you're giving us big winters.   It was a willing trade off. Besides, albeit rare, some years would turn balmy, early, and stay that way.  And usually, July is still coming whether spring liked it or not - we'd get at least a couple of months of that 80+deg, golf and beach nostalgia. 

But lately?   Winters are a root-canal, while summers are becoming too submerged in DPs mixed with "continental B.O." - I don't know what you call that polluted miasma we've been getting in recent summers, but it's causing these black mold blooms like red tide in the house. Summers are becoming eerie.  And springs seem to eat later and later into summer. 

The deal is off!

Taking time away from higher sun angle time of the year and eating into the warm season, while our winters are increasing sucky.  That's another reason why people migrated from the Brit Empire ... taxation became unfair. ... Without winters?  what's the point. It's a good thing the climate isn't changing

I keep getting post cards and cold calls, and texts from strangers offering to buy my house, as is, ...dinner plate departure, for cash - meaning you drop what you're doing and just give them the keys for X amount of dollars. Literally, 'no cleaning necessary. Leave the furniture ...', etc.  A lot of people are getting those around me, too.   I guess most of the population doesn't give a shit what the weather's doing because I'd-a thunk a climate frustration triggered diaspora would lower real-estate demand   I dunno.  Point is, I can probably get out here if it got bad enough - but where to go?

Cloudy, 53 .... supposed to be 71 but it's cloudier than modeled as a last minute adjustment - go figure.

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Problem is if it’s hoodie weather where you are, folks are lighting wood stoves up here .

Been stuck between 46-50F all day.  Currently 47F.

The difference between today and tomorrow will be among the more impressive single day changes we've seen in quite some time, pan-regional.  Especially in your lower els that escape the fog capped valley inversion - which I think the wind will be establishing a S bias in the Notch. 

No one's really talking about that as it's a non-injurious notable but 46 to 76 isn't out of the question say St Johnbury region, and that's true for down our way too.  It's 49 here mi casa this hour, steady R-  Can't find a model lower than 76 here when factoring in the typical 2-meter sounding slope.

This is one of the deals where the whole system sensibly is more like a warm front, even though a cf clears the region prior to dawn.  It's one of my personal labeled type of system, more common in autumn and spring - where the cold is on the front side only.  Only when this does it is spring, you get the sun booster to really bring the point home.  

It's subtle . .. but, the 12z Euro's trying to normalize that D5 - 10 pattern.   It's got a ways to go but it's not as obnoxious with the 500 mb height synopsis as it was in prior runs. 

Wednesday may have some interesting convection with that entangled warm boundary/weak cyclone deal.   Nice theta e pooling in CT with a strong temperature gradient in that vicinity, with a modest mid level wind max/right exit jet region coming in over S surface winds.  

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

The GFS is vomit worthy after Tuesday

And that's actually better than the 00z and 06z in the sequential order.  I mean ... it's been getting better - imho.  But still is above the vomit threshold - ha.

One upshot is that it's keeping the pattern progressive while that +PNA trough spends that 5 days in there.  We're not stalling lows in the area.  I'm also noticing that we aren't pulling as much "blue line" S of the border as much as prior runs.  Maybe it's bad pattern and at the same time the model's admitting that the sun is hot now.  jeez

Getting two days, back-to-back, above 70 F in this -NAO relaying into a +PNA is actually a pretty fantastic achievement relative to that predicament.

Beyond that, NWS is right ... probably 5 to 6 consecutive days of BN.  How much, or if we can pull a 'normal' day out of that stretch will come down ( as usual ) to the amount of sun.  The Euro variant would be on the uglier side of a frontal boundary, with cyclic waves running out along or S of LI Each one enhancing light rain and raw E drift to the air.  Couped up cabin fever at a time of the year whence that is clearly stealing what precious time we have for summer in this godforsaken cold dumpster region of the continent...  

This is entry into solar maximum week ... From now through August 8 we are getting what we're going to get from old sol - I'd rather not spend a week of it rotting but to each is his or her own. 

That all said, I suspect the Euro is over doing it with those thermal profiles S of ~60 N across the continent after D 7 or 8 ... that looks like typical model trying to eclipse the season shit we see in that time range during spring modeling season.   For that matter, there some possibility these models are all wholesale over doing that L/W rangle in that time range. 

Be careful though.  We may not cleanly exit the shits like that.   

The PNA is being forecast to flip modes into positive in the Euro's recent ensembles - fwiw.  The GEFs are bit tamer... rising to neutral index, but the Euro brings back February.

This can be seen both in the numerical telecons, but also in the larger hemispheric synoptic mean.  If it has legs we shift away from the -NAO shits, right into PNA diarrhea.   

Models do tend to be over amplified as a standing correction ... Pretty much everything they're handling beyond D 4 ..5 ..etc, tends to prove magnified.  Factoring that in might bring a more realistic/tamer GFS solution that much back from the brink of disastrous misery.  Suddenly some redemption, etc.  By arithmetic, that would require a big correction from the Euro, though. This is ensemble mean, mind you, at 200 hours

Anyway ... have to see if the PNA is being overly baked by the Euro. 

This kind of game of relaying from one rapist to the next hemisphere has been a spring plight around here going back years, on top of a climate that is also questionably tolerable to begin with.  Therefore, it fits the multi-seasonal trend? so to speak. It just makes the idea feel right ha

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What the heck is this thing?

 

Ooh.   that's an Arachnophobic  Succullotta ... very dangerous.  Don't mess with those! 

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 90s and 00s were terrible. Way worse than this. We've had some decent springs overall post 2010. I think this is more just our climo.

Between my childhood and ~ 2000 ... I never saw snow in May.

I've seen it now 10 times since 2000.

That's what I mean ?

I'm not refuting what you're say, re the four seasons of New England:  Summer, Autumn, Winter, Butt Bang

Like I said... it's hard to parse out which is which in terms of quota in the question of 'how much of this is just our climate vs being exaggerated by CC'   - speculative on this latter point, of course.

But just imho I don't think the hockey stick climate acceleration in the last 25 years, vs the sudden frequency shift in odd-ball late cold so pernicious that we have busted virga cu packing pellet flurries like it's Thanks Giggedy in May, is merely accidental. 

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The 90s and 00s were terrible. Way worse than this. We've had some decent springs overall post 2010. I think this is more just our climo.

Nothing will ever beat 2005 May    hahaha.