CryHavoc

3 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Between the total number of tornadoes, and the total number of strong tornadoes, this was one of the most impressive outbreaks we’ve had in the past 20-30 years.

Esp the single day total might be top 10 since 2000.

6 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

 

That is absolutely incredible, to actually pass the 2011 May Outbreak sequence for EF3+ tornadoes.  Wow.

I think at this point a high risk would have more than verified.  Massive outbreak with numerous violent tornadoes.  Glad they kept it at moderate and issued numerous PDS/TorE's for the day.

7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I'd guess a strongly worded tor watch.  PDS watches I think are automatic with high risk, and I don't know if high risk will be issued in the latest update.  But I think you can have PDS watches without a high risk.  Hopefully a met can enlighten us.

PDS watches are very common/frequent with MDT risk days as well, especially with elevated tornado probabilities.

Best couplet of the day near Springfield Missouri.  Very strong rotation with a strong couplet.

Cell to the NW of Joplin looks like it's about to produce.

Strong rotation showing up near Joplin.

Day 3 Enhanced Risk just went up.  I'm guessing this will be a Day 2 Mod.

Just now, J_Prothro said:

I think there'd be deaths if it was a 5

Agreed.  For no one to have died points to it likely being a 3... maybe a 4 and we just got lucky?  But for an EF5 to hit a major city and not kill anyone is basically unheard of.

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

We have a few quacks who compare everything to worst ever events, but ef 3 sounds about right to me from worst we've seen. Thinking construction of buildings contributed to severity of the debris ball.

From what we've seen, I agree, but there's a chance (like with Joplin) that we haven't seen the worst damage.  It's really hard to do a damage assessment when the worst hit areas are likely under rescue operations.  For that storm, we saw much of the outskirts of the city where the tornado was weakening or strengthening and didn't see the maxed out EF5 damage until later in the following day or even 48 hours later, if memory serves.

All signs do point to a high end EF3/low EF4 for now though.

23 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Jeff City was rated a high end EF3, preliminarily. 

For what it's worth, so was Joplin, initially.  There were even people on this board (I think?) saying there were no clear instances of EF4 or EF4+ damage right away and sounding pretty confident in that assessment.

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I can't remember a time they've issued moderate three days in a row.

May 22nd 23rd 24th, 2011 had 2 MDTs and a high.

5 minutes ago, mikeosborne38 said:

Good points. I will admit that as someone who lived through 4/27, I compare every higher risk event to that day, which I now realize is unrealistic. April 3, 1974, and April 27, 2011 belong in categories totally by themselves. It's easy to forget you can have bad days like Super Tuesday, etc. that don't rise to that level but are still pretty bad. Truth is, like you said those super outbreaks are once in a generation and there's a good chance I wont see a day like 4/27 in my lifetime. Unfortunately also I think some people just won't take responsibility for their own safety, regardless of the wording used sadly.

Indeed.

That said, there's no timescale on how often these happen.  Don't forget that we had an extremely active outbreak later that same year -- it just gets lost because of the Joplin tornado consumed so much attention, but that was part of a larger 5-6 day outbreak that also dropped over 230 tornadoes including the El Reno EF5.  We've also had multiple "only" MDT risk days that drop EF5 tornadoes, such as Joplin.
 

22 minutes ago, mikeosborne38 said:

I'll answer for myself. I have family in Midwest City and I only mentioned a bust because I was happy it was trending that way. I lived through 4/27 and don't wish that on anyone.  Like Dr Shepherd mentions in the article the current 24/7 news cycle along with social media and the search for likes and clicks contribute to some accusations of sensationalism.  Also, a good question posed in that article is are words like "dangerous"and "catastrophic"being over used?  In hindsight maybe mentioning 4/27 was a mistake as that day stands in a category by itself, even among high risk outbreak days.  People were expecting multiple violent tornadoes down at the same time like 4/27. Most lay person's don't read forecast discussions, etc to know possible limiting factors.

Thanks for the response.  It's important to note that an event "trending downward" doesn't necessarily precipitate a bust call, however.  Events like 4/27 are once in a decade or even once a generation, but a storm system does not need to spawn 100 tornadoes+ to resolve as a high risk, nor does an event that looks to be tapering mean it won't surge as the day wears on.

Regarding everyday citizens, it's unfortunate but often the only way to get people to take notice of high risk days is to use strongly worded language.  We have a double edged sword in that regard -- either use language that can be construed as hyping an event (perhaps unnecessarily), or being more conservative with watches and warnings and hope that people still take the situation seriously.

I think the very fact that people are not educated about storms in general means they need to be given an even greater berth of the situations unfolding.  I have a friend who lives in Texas and I told him not to be out yesterday, explained to him why, and his wife still got caught in 80mph winds in her car.  In my experience, people are just unable to be bothered from disrupting the convenience of their lives unless the most dire language is used.  That is why no matter how much lead time a tornado has, you see dozens of people caught in Home Depots, gas stations, and Walmarts when a tornado arrives.

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Yes and no...yes b/c we will always be learning but in terms of yesterday I don't think it could have (or should have been handled any differently). While this bares true for any type of weather event, IMO this is moreso for severe wx, but mesoscale features and short-term evolution are extremely critical for these types of events. There are plenty of meteorologists who have presented some ideas as to why we didn't see a much larger number of tornadoes (and strong tornadoes). Keep in mind none of these thoughts are mine...I am presenting what I have read, but temperatures around 10,000 to 20,000' ended up slightly warmer, an increase in H7 frotogenesis helped nudge a push of warmer air here into OK. Forcing may have slacked a bit more.

I know "busts" hurt the credibility of forecasts, but the main goal for forecasters is protecting life and property. In a case leading up to yesterday there is no other way to handle that. You want to give people as much information as possible to protect their life...people are too easy to cry and complain, but those who went through a terrifying situation are likely to be extremely thankful. 

What doesn't help the situation is the people who run around social media and cry bust after every weather event. Severe weather happened yesterday...and quite a bit...and in the highlighted area. People should be thankful we didn't see numerous strong-to-violent tornadoes and there aren't casualties (I have not heard of any...and hope there haven't been). 

Well articulated.

What I'd like to know for future threads like this is the rationale people have on these threads of saying "bust" before 5pm on a high risk day.

What is to be gained?  Why is it necessary to immediately jump all over a "bust" call?  Most of us reading the threads are scientists or have at least an active interest in the science of weather.  We can openly acknowledge difficult/problematic forecasts when the event is over -- by coming to consensus based on the parameters merited.

This isn't a sporting event.  It's a scientific pursuit of knowledge.  Saying an event "busts" isn't even a scientific statement -- it contains absolutely no furthering of information or exchange of curiosity.  It's just a token word designed to... I don't know, make the person saying it feel cool because they're calling out the SPC as an authority?

Furthermore, bust calls tend to kill conservation about the actual events taking place.  At the very least it never promotes healthy discussion in these threads.  Rushing to bust calls, in my humble opinion, serves absolutely no one.

Additionally, I am extremely concerned about the pressure this kind of thing can put on forecasters to be less aggressive in these calls.  Protection of lives must remain a priority.

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Cells in W OK starting to look better as well and become more separate.

Was just going to post that.  They look healthier and more discrete already.

Tornadic circulation ESE of Hollis.

Just now, jpeters3 said:

Considering the fact that there had already been several EF-5s on 4-27 by this time, I think this statement is well justified.

 

Sure, if you're comparing today directly to 4/27 as a measure of a "bust" scenario.

If we're literally talking about the largest outbreak in history as the bar today needed to clear -- that's flatly ridiculous.  It is not time for people to relax or let their guard down.  Only takes one big cell to send death tolls skyrocketing.

Just now, mikeosborne38 said:

Today proves how extremely rare days like April 27 2011 really are. Most outbreak days have some limiting factors unlike that day. Good news for the immediate OKC area.

Way too early to say that.  It's not even 5pm CDT.

Awfully quiet today...

Just now, chuckster2012 said:

Made it! It's over! ( not ashamed to say I prayed..).

Glad to know you're safe!  Wouldn't want another JoMo situation... 

 John Humphress has a strong funnel cloud on his stream as we speak.  SE of Evansville, very strong storm with a good base and rotation.

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Wow, Seymour cell is really intense.

1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said:

Moving toward me rn! Pray for me!

TVS on that cell.  Now is the time to take cover if it's close.  Hope you have a safe space to go to.

5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

several ofthe  cells in NE IL now have couplets

Most look weak but they are developing.  Maybe that 10% hatched wasn't such a terrible call after all...

Another nasty cell -- this one is tracking S of Brownstown.