Harry

I guess I should have looked at the precip shield edge.. qpf came up ever so slightly here so yeah I assumed.

You mean nw bump.. And it is ever so slight..

Gonna take a real miracle to get the main ( second ) system to back up far enough nw to have any decent impact here. And no I don't believe in weather miracles atleast. Lol Still part 1 looks to provide a decent hit with potentially more. Near certain the historic potential is near zero though for here atleast. That ended when part two decided to go se on modeling. Was hoping for my first day off in over a month..

A ever slight bump Nw on ensembles with qpf. More important for now atleast the bleeding has stopped.

You don't think the lake is gonna help the cause there?

Starting to look like our hopes are riding with round one.

Oh it is. For now atleast the bleeding has stopped!

Lol.. Hey you remember back in the day what happened to Hoosier storm threads? Lol You used to have the golden touch. And yeah it helped having geos around.. Damn him! It's his fault! Someone go find hIm! Gotta have some fun with this!

Chicago storm started this one and moved everything from that thread.. Maybe that's the problem? Lol

GRR has pulled the trigger here. Ofcourse WDM is at the helm. Ballsy call is all I will say after today's runs.

I wouldn't worry to much. It is the NAM. One thing I am certain of is the nam will come back south. It always does that and the one constant. Just a matter of what the big boys do? Thus the unknown at this point granted today it has been wagons south which could continue. Good luck!

I am not gonna lie but there was a point in time a little over a day ago I thought this sucker could end up going a bit too far north bringing that nasty ice threat. Lol Guess we can close the book on that sort of thing happening anymore. Won't say it is zero but yeah low.. Back in the days of 07/08 and GHD l we would be wondering who is getting smashed in WI. Yeah GHD ll came back north a bit but not like many of the others prior to that did. Now for the 18z runs! Start crossing toes, legs etc.. lol

That south trend needs to do a full on reverse starting with the 18z runs and continuing till storm time. If this is to do anything meaningful up this way. Note the lead system and how much stronger it has gotten on modeling ( see GFS etc ) once it heads for and past Hudson bay. That is what is helping to pull everything further south and se. Can only hope the modeling is overdoing that feature.

Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol Life goes on though. Now for the euro which should be up and running!

Not I. I'll pass as well. Keep going south. Models had been behaving so well ( as in more predictable trends ) and now this. Lol Enjoy Indiana and Ohio! This is not coming back north. History making systems never do come back for here atleast. Willing to bet that the Jan 67 ( #1 ) and Jan 78 ( #2 ) records stand for another 100+ years here? Any takers? What a wild ride for sure and nice to see all the old faces pop in. Question now is northern Indiana or Central and same for Ohio? Who is gonna be in that zone? Somebody is getting buried down that way while someone else could be getting a disgusting ice storm.

At a loss for words looking at them. Wow

So it took a little longer then I thought for the trend back north I see. Could end up paying off big time.

The Telecons don't support such a suppressed track as the euro would have it yet ( as I think I have seen before.. trying to recall? ) it is looking like just that is gonna happen despite the rest. Oh well give it another day..

If it doesn't happen in Grand Rapids proper or in the boonies further north ( where basically nobody lives ) it didn't happen. Only a few there worth reading who actually takes the time to break things down and they are rarely on when it comes to winter events. Historic has found everyway possible to miss this area ( Dec 04, Mar 08. VD 07, GHD 1, etc etc ) so yeah expectations have been low on the crazier amounts the GFS has showed. That blew it's load here in 67 and 78.

The main system is still 4 days out.

I would have to agree and not because we share similar thoughts. He explains stuff like no other. It doesn't matter the subject either. We have a goody at this office ( GRR ) but sadly is not around often enough! See WDM.

GFS tends to be too wet while euro does not so great with Canada and thus the tendency to suppress and thus see clipper euro run image posted in that clipper thread. It does tend to hold energy back to long as well in the sw. East coast swears by euro because yes it tends to handle such stuff better coming out the south. Wonder how it's doing in Boston? Just my observations.

They should break it down by region. I suspect those numbers change ( not for the good ) especially for this region. See older storm threads.

Closer to moisture source. 24hr record here is 21.5 from Jan 26, 1967. #2. is 18 from Jan 26, 1978. Only this place could pull off that sort of thing. I was looking at prior storm threads ( trio clipper ) and noticed it has been a southern outlier more often then not vs GFS etc..

They go to 144.