Iceagewhereartthou

42 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I could see this one busting majorly for the upstate in a good way. If we get heavy rates tomorrow morning and quickly overcome the shallow warm air at the surface, we could be off to the races with an inch of liquid falling down as heavy sticking snow at 32/33,(plus the sun angle isn't bad at all like it is in feb/march).  In the perfect scenario I think north of 85 could get 5 or 6 inches of paste.

On the other hand, the shallow warm air at the surface could hold strong and we get our inch of liquid with nothing more than white rain pelting down and melting on contact all day.

Warm nose at 750mb could also set up a little farther north than models show and preclude us from any snow.

Odds are something goes wrong and we get mostly rain or non-sticking slop, but there is certainly a non-zero chance we get pasted with significant snow-storm.

 

Edit to add: The southern Mountains are going to get smoked. I think that's a lock now.  Highlands/cashiers/lake toxaway, towards caesar's head will get get 6 to 10 inches, IMO.

Good post burrell, always like seeing your input. Your last part is a great description of the 2009 December storm, Mtns got a big one, including SC mtns, but is was just a cruel hair too warm below 2000 ft.Got a few sleet pellets mixed in in Taylors, but nothing else. That was tough one to swallow.Even though this is a different setup, it could have very similar results.

14 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

January CJ said 4-6 with locally higher amounts. We got a backend dusting 

Well i was one of the lucky ones and got a good 3-3.5 here in Easley. My parents in Dacusville got 5.5! But yeah, just East of here missed on that one, but it all evens out, you guys got the Halloween snow a couple years ago and I didnt get a flake.

6 minutes ago, J.C. said:

16z HRRR

 

This image fits very well for what almost all guidance is showing (and with Climo) for the NEGA/Upstate/WNC crew. Warm buble over NEGA/Upstate with snow SW from there and snow over WNC mtns. Sort or an upside down banana of snow. This is climo and the look we see about 95% of the time. Always disappointing, but never surprising. 

Also for this area, we have timing going against us with the bulk coming in at the worst time of day. Needs to be 8 hours earlier or 8 hours later. With solar radiation it's very difficult to chip away at a warm BL or get much accum even if you do. 

Some of the run to run comments on here are hilarious. Remember guys, in general:

- Temps are a problem outside elevation 99% of the time with very few exceptions (Jan 88/ Jan 11)

- The warm bubble you're seeing over NEGA and Upstate is climo (I know, I hate it too!). It doesn't always happen, but most of the time it will and nothing can be done about it. 

- There are always wobbles in track leading up to an event, and 95% of the time there are NW adjustments all the way up until go time. 

- Every model has had it's coup and it's fail, so hugging or jumping based on one model is a little silly.

- DO NOT take accumulation maps verbatim!

- Models are only tools, how many surprises have we seen the past few years no matter the model support? 

- Climo says a bust is way more likely than a pleasant surprise but a surprise is still possible. Don't over expect. 

- The vast majority of events outside elevation have mixing so expect that at your place if it's not all rain. 

24 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

top is 12z NAM, bottom is 18z, same time.

 

All I can see on these particular images is an SE ridge! I can't remember seeing such heavy snow THAT far south in Mexico then the 540 line goes though DELMARVA. Wow at that buckle!

4 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Weenie Run

Talk about you're I-85 special!

4 hours ago, Lookout said:

18z run of the cmc seems pretty bullish. Still showing that aggravating near surface warm bubble around here.. but overall..nw of the 12z run 

 

Total precip amounts between  06z friday and 06z saturday....

You guys are a lot better at this than me but this set up looks unusual to me. The low looks pretty good just off the SE coast, but our cold high feed is the 1033 in northern, Mexico, n`est pas? I guess the 1044 over Idaho is a reinforcing cold feed, but that seems too far. It seems we need that 1033 about 1000 miles NE. Then we have our infamous great lakes low. On the 78 hour frames we have 3 lows that look well placed and about the right strength. So we have 2 highs, one that seems too far South, one that seems too far West, 2 upper Midwest lows, and 3 SE lows. With all that change in pressures, why are not seeing more wind, and with 3 lows a lot more moisture? Any good analogues for this set up?

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Hit 84 here today. Like I have always said, if it isn't going to snow might as well be sunny and warm.

You're  killing me Smalls.

Except for 4 days in Jan, this is the most depressing and pathetic winter of all-time! Might as well be in Key West.

2 hours ago, pcbjr said:

A thing of beauty ---

 

Awesome! Now with that snowpack we just need a big NAO block, a huge reinforcing dump of cold air, and an active STJ with multiple slow moving weak lows delivering over- running events and we would be epic! 

Instead we'll get 60s for 2 weeks .

8 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Welp I am thinking more and more we are getting a cold rain in Greenville. Good luck to those in atl and north of us. 

We're going to have to move to Greenville, NC, I do think it's become the new Asheville over the past ten years! Trying to get a decent snow in the upstate anymore is like trying to get a date with a pretty girl back in high school. You always have built up hopes, but eventually reality slaps you in the face and you're left with nothing but lonely heartbreak. 

Top posts about to be placed in the storm thread:

10 How can the models be so clueless?

9 Cold air is ALWAYS the first priority.

 8 We just can't get winter storms anymore.

7 Put a fork in it, it's done.

6 This was an awesome run!

5  This was a terrible run!

4  I'm done with chasing snow.

3 I know I shouldn't have bought in to...

2 It's not properly sampled yet!

1 This was never going to be a great storm for...

BONUS: The writing is on the wall folks!

37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I want enough snow to get out of work Monday, so I can have a relaxing day to get ready to watch Clemson lose the Championship, for the 2nd year in a row!!

As long as Clemson loses, I won't even worry about the snow ( well not much any way) . Hate Bama, but ROLL TIDE!

38 minutes ago, Wow said:

The DGEX isn't a reliable model, just known for showing fantasy snow maps.

Oh I know, it's def a clown model. The only reason I even commented was because it really does resemble the layout of the 18z. 

14 minutes ago, packbacker said:

DGEX been rock solid.  

Actually mirrors the latest GFS. Looks awful for western areas. I'm not liking that trend.

1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

I want the 12z back

 Yeah it was way better for me too. Another jog like that and we'll be looking at another Jan. 2000. Couple jogs and it'll be a 12 /89 deal. Boo on both of those!

88 was a good snow for many, Upstate happened to be in the bullseye for once in history. It is amazing to me though that the western upstate has never seen a bigger snow (technically Spartanburg got 15 inches in like 1902?), which is more than GSP airport recorded from 88 storm). There are lots and lots of places that have bigger all-times, Birmingham, Columbia, Florence, Charlotte, Raleigh, and of course mountains and farther north, but those are a few right here. Just goes to show how difficult it is to truly get a good one right here tucked away in our little area. Downslopping, dryslotting, WAA, too far from the Atlantic, Leeward cycloogenesis (farther East), there is always something to keep us from getting ours here in the upstate. As awesome as 93 Superstorm was IMBY, we still didn't get the totals of many places like Asheville, Chatanooga, Birmingham. And, yes, Jan 2000 was a crush job for us western peeps, crushed dreams, crushed egos, crushed with jealousy, etc.