If as you say there's alot of subsidence to the north and south of the heaviest snow band. Why would you say you could see ALOT of sleet south of that band? That would not be subsidence??
Imagine the chaotic forecast the NWS would have if they just used Modelology, and not Meteorology. Changing their forecast every couple hrs, when a new model run comes out. It would be ridiculous, and no one would pay them any mind.
Really? I don't follow NYC forecasts very closely. But that seems amazing, and something I never realized? I can't remember 1 winter here in the last 33 years that we didn't have a winter storm watch, and or Warning.
Just got a text alert from EPAWA for Sussex county NJ.
Snow arrives between 5-8pm Friday.
Heavy at times Friday night.
Ends as light snow Saturday morning.
4-8" accumulation.
I'm assuming the 4" amounts would be for SW Sussex, I guess he's figuring there might be some sleet there. I'm in NE Sussex county, so maybe 6-8" here.
That's at least half sleet south of Rt. 78. Put that 6" line from Rt. 80 in northern Jersey, NYC, and mostly all of Long Island. As of right now. Things will almost certainly change a bit by Friday.