AvantHiatus

All I can say is well-said Rob...

Not methane but this is not good. Carbon feedbacks on hyperdrive in a human hothouse.

I just wanted to point out, this is not TGW.

I don't think the general public recognizes the ENSO connection, and 2014 was warm without strong ENSO forcing. Nobody can stop an idea whose time has come, and it expands way beyond AGW.

70+% extinction is a total reset/wipeout. All you are left with is simple Eukaryota and Fungi. We have a decent amount of buffer in regards to temperature but deep down I don't think the Holocene biosphere is well-equipped to deal with a hothouse Earth. Everything is correct in principle Jonger, but it's simply not worth it just to keep an economic system going for one species when there are more productive alternatives. Global warming could conceivably kill the Earth but it's the least likely outcome at this point. There is just too much sequestered carbon in the Arctic from the Azolla event to rule it out tho. It would be like simultaneously dumping all sequestered CO2/CH4 to ever exist into one time interval. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azolla_event This won't happen if we stop short of say....750ppm? Which is very likely to happen.

You got it.

Over here in North America, AGW should continue but there will be SLR issues. Europe will need to worry about abrupt seasonal damages especially in agriculture. It's not that extreme when you look at the big picture. The paper above seemingly fails to account for what a AMOC collapse at the current/future GHG forcing does to equatorial temperatures. It's a truely nutty situation that we should have avoided at all costs (which is unlikely at this point baring some massive geo-engineering), or you can look forward to some serious unraveling and environmental incompatibility with our current coastal communities and economic shipping routes. The most important realization is that there should be doubts over the AMOC completely shutting down from 1.0C of GMT warming. This is why I am so skeptical of large NH cooling. We could perhaps see a fast taper down that mirrors GMT increase and ice discharge, something more linear but abrupt on geological timescales regardless. Whatever scenario occurs, we should expect extreme storminess and unstable seasons.

I don't even know....the end result seems the same. Must be a climate denier.

Using specifcs as a prediction benchmark never works. At least I made a call in the end. There will be a wall somewhere, I'm not sure where it will setup. Depends on how cloudy it becomes in the Arctic. Notice I said it 'may' hit a wall, not that it would.

Well hold on a sec. I'm somewhat upset that I'm causing you this much emotional distress. We are approaching a critical junction for public policy making. We can't afford to have false pictures of the situation. I know we have already proven that what goes on here has no impact on public policy. At this point, I defend AGW so deeply in order to live up my high moral code and principles. I don't want to die knowing I contributed to the problem. For me, AGW is the ultimate example of crime that one can surmise. The premature death of an entire planet, and possibly the only planet with advanced life. This is just my poor attempt at repaying my debts. I hope to double down.

Contribute and stop trolling. This place is a one-sided mess. ORH, you didn't elaborate enough and the ignorant will miss the AGW influence. I only have one goal in this forum, and that is to defend the livelihood of my future. Don't count on me to be Michael Mann or Kevin Trenberth part 2, altho you guys probably still wouldn't give two ****s about what I have to say/type. Listen to the professionals, and to claim you are a professional would be a sad miscalculation, if not a gross explosion of ego. We are both hobbyists and prospective learners here. I never mentioned anything about a lagged refreeze. My main point was that this does not diminish the threat we face nor does it change the outcome in any way.

What a load of BS. This is due to arctic amplification and a continuation of AGW/El Nino. So everything that is not in your favor is just latent heat and the sun? I was right about you all along, your not an objective moderator altho you fooled me a few times too many. Even if it's true, why is the latent heat release higher than usual? In hindsight, we see the same thing just for different reasons. As nflwxman pointed out, it's a direct result of losing so much ice which is an AGW driven phenomenon predominantly (greater than 50%).

We're gonna need a bigger boat. http://robertscribbl...chart/#comments

+1

I hate this el nino event, it's going to mask the fact that large percentages of surface warming in 2015 are from AGW forcing. People will go about their lives untill the next la nina or el nino, vicious cycle continues as we stairstep into the abyss.

It might break something.

The hooking nature of the ULL and also the deep meridional dig towards the gulf . Most systems hitting the SE on a W heading are steered by the Bermuda High. I suspect there will be more proving grounds ahead and people will finally wake up to alterations in TC genesis and tracks caused by AGW. (Such as the hurricane drought in Florida) Furthermore, the NAR has been displaced anomalously around 60N. We are still early in the processes but eventually the EC/NE will be wide open for TC landfalls from the east and other nastiness that will exacerbate the effects of SLR.

How much do they pay you to downplay everything? Longest fetch of easterly winds on record locally, about 14 days. We know there was potential for a EC landfall and blocking highs everywhere. The TC simply pumped the ridge too much and moved SW. Timing was literally off by 6 hours. Next time we won't be this lucky. Wasn't even worth it. The system was immensely damaging to area beaches/communities thru moderate coastal flooding due to the pressure gradient. It was actually more impactful than Irene locally. Winds were on par with Irene.

Digressing as usual. Hurricane J is not missing the United States in a typical fashion, being pushed by a ULL and surrounded by record high pressure due to the Atlantic flipping to the Hansen mode.

Climate Change Superstorm Redux? Joaquin Shows Some Eerie Similarities to Sandy in Forecast.

Let the geoengineering begin...

Love this post, keep it up.