AvantHiatus

Pretty much, it followed on the heels of other storms in the 2000s which were enhanced by AGW.

The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere during Greenhouse Earth conditions is exponentially greater than the profile of Icehouse Earth. This latest blizzard really tapped into the enhanced latent heat of the Gulf Stream. It seems obvious, almost self-evident and is impossible to deny unless you are mentally disabled.

Solid proof of increased urbanization or greenhouse warming.

1750+ CH4 is pretty rare in the paleoclimate record. I would surmise that environmental forcings were simply "maxed" out in the 2000's. Looks like we have accelerated slightly in the last few years and especially in 2013. A more appropriate question to ask is if the recent Methane jump is a "glitch" or a real trend. Interesting that the methane trend appears to have followed the rate of global temperature rise.

The vast majority of the population gain would arise from third-world nations and India/China. Though after reading into it, seems the overpopulation issue is over-emphasized by the few who choose to acknowledge it. I think we could be doing better with more efficient land use and agriculture. Possibly with all cards on the table, 10-12 billion could be supported with a decent standard of living without driving up the population to insane levels and wrecking ecosystems. My main thought after reading the IPCC analysis was that climate disasters would keep Africa in check in terms of population, probably a few other regions as well. Of course, we don't want to go down that road either.

How long before demand grows faster than production? 0.1% production growth per year is not that significant other than it was not a decline. Alot of surplus foods are used for cattle and meat industry, etc. This is why we still have massive hunger issues throughout the world outside of America. On the flipside, population growth still continues unabated, conditions must not be that bad if people can afford to have so many kids. I think IPCC is really focusing on that factor but we don't really know how large the global population will become by 2050.

You are joking but I am serious, more likely than last year but probabilities are still diminished.

The 2012-esque upward movement in arctic sea extent is somewhat eerie.

Drudge and Jonger have been communicating.

Hillarious

Surprising, it appeared to be alot colder than those maps imply. I guess the warm periods between the cold shots increased the temperature average greatly.

A key takeaway point is how a +PDO phase will affect temperature trends. If the -PDO imparts a negative forcing as strongly as suggested, then it is also possible the +PDO is an equally powerful positive forcing. To be honest, despite what others have claimed, arctic sea ice is a deal breaker for global climate due to the associated albedo feedbacks and permafrost related warming events. I think it would overwhelm the -PDO when we observe the September ice-free state. Is it really possible for PIOMAS volumes to stay above 0 in September for the next 30 years? These are key questions one needs to answer before forecasting climate far into the future. Globally, 2013 was warmer than 2011 and 2012 so there is no "blip" if you use that as the primary metric.

The abrupt climate change is not entirely visible in the global average. It is most apparent in the Arctic Amplification and changes in OHC. Please keep laughing and downplaying everything.

Again cherry-picking by only using RSS and excluding GISS and UAH. Just wait a few more years and we will see who is right.

Why are you cherry-picking data? November has the highest trend in antarctic sea ice growth. Averaged throughout the year, antarctic sea ice extent is changing not nearly as fast as Arctic sea ice extent and has not increased significantly in the last decade. http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm Let us also not forget that we live in the Northern Hemisphere, and temperatures trends show the Northern Hemisphere is warming about twice the rate of the Southern Hemisphere. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/in-global-warming-northern-hemisphere-is-outpacing-the-south-15850

I do not know, i'm not a mind-reader. He's probably just extrapolating from recent research and theories that have not yet been fully reflected in the IPCC report. Case in point, the ice-free state in September was not expected until the 2080's in the 2007 IPCC report. Right now there is data to back up Obama's claims but you will not find it in UN IPCC. The most recent iteration IPCC 2013 does little to address key issues and non-linear responses.

Politicians are not scientists and generally have a poor understanding of the processes that warm the planet. Using the IPCC as a reference is kind of a strawman because they are generally unrealistically conservative but more-so in the short-term and do not factor in non-linear climate effects. I have a hard time seeing how the Earth warms more than 5c in 100 years (some have proposed up to 26c runaway venus conditions), however if things are already bad at 0.8c then that gives you an idea of what we are facing.

I have always imagined the additional positive forcing is keeping up with the vertical mixing to the surface, equating to OHC that is rising with SSTs. As well one has to consider how changes in ocean currents will affect heat transport. If the labrador current is not there the region would become stagnant and OHC would steadily rise. Some have proposed the Gulf Stream will become severely disrupted by the reduction of ocean temperature contrasts between the arctic and tropics and the associated changes to salinity caused by ice melt. In effect, this would cause the warm current to pile up onto the East Coast and raise local sea levels while cooling down parts of the North Atlantic and Europe. http://www.wunderground.com/news/east-coast-rising-seas-slower-gulf-stream-20130213

http://www.thewire.com/national/2013/04/atlantic-ocean-east-coast-was-warmest-ever-recorded-2012/64737/ As you have alluded, OHC is different from SST but 2012 holds the record for warmest surface waters in some areas. Can you post data proving that OHC is on the decline and how it changes in certain areas? For example, the Gulf Stream versus the Coastal Waters. Unless by North Atlantic you meant the area way off the east coast south of Greenland, which has experienced a steady decline of SSTs perhaps caused by diminished overturning? I'm under the impression that OHC content greatly affects the strength of upwelling and there would be a general correlation. Constantly warm SSTs should equal to stable or rising OHC below the surface as observed along the East Coast in the past few years.

Definitely something to consider, the significant feature of recent NAEC SSTs is that they have remained warm even in colder years like 2013, albeit the east coast was not as cold as the central US. Overall, it appears to be a heat transport phenomenon either from the disappearance/weakening of the Labrador current or an intrusion of the Gulf stream. Perhaps a culmination of both processes. As a result, I do not think one year of stormy weather will fix the problem. I've read that deeper parts of the ocean are also warming so eventually up-welling will be less effective as a mitigation factor.

Every time I analyze that Pacific warm pool I just become mind-blown and it makes the anomalous 2012 SST event off the east coast appear marginal. I can attest directly that warmer waters affect commercial fishing populations greatly. http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Tropical-fish-are-moving-in-as-Long-Island-Sound-581383.php Unfortunately there is alot of evidence backing up the significance of this event and its unprecedented nature. We can see this in the record drought and above normal warmth along the west coast. While not directly caused by the warm SST's, it is the result of this long-term pattern that has locked in for quite some time. We have to bring the energy imbalance back into equilibrium by sequestering carbon, allowing the oceans to torch away at 400 ppm for any length of time is dangerous. My guess is we will see more warm pools popping up in the next few years, perhaps a new accelerating trend in SSTs mabye to an extent they almost catch up to surface benchmark of 0.8c. Of course, ocean temperature trends always lead surface temperatures by a year or so.

^_^