ryanconway63

I would expect the 12z Euro to look very similar to the 00z

CMC  total Snow through hour 150

CMC is a major trend toward the Euro....its not perfect yet but its going to be a pretty nice run for alot of folks.....big Win for this forum 

CMC transfer to Out Banks at 114 looks pretty good....improvement 

primary hanging on a little longer at 108 it would appear

CMC looks slightly south at 102

GFS sucks.....next

ICON took a step back in my opinion  

How reliable of a model is the NAVGEM   its Very Bullish on the Big Storm/Slow Crawl Idea, looks like it would destroy Richmond to NY even though it only goes out to 144

Nobody on this board should be taking the GFS seriously with how it has performed lately.  If the Euro ends up being even remotely close its the King for a reason

looks almost identical to 18z through 90 to me

Im in Northern Neck of VA if anybody wants to chase here.....

PARA handled the Thursday non event even more poorly than the GFS.....   I cant take it seriously at all

FWIW the Euro had the Thursday event/non event pretty well locked in at this stage of the game  (144 hours out)   while other models were still barking about a MECS

Well so much for sleep for the rest of this week.......

Lets get two more runs of Euro and EPS and if results are similar I think its time to take this very seriously.  Agree with PSU that the agreement on the EPS is unreal.

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

Ahhhh, you're from Richmond. That explains it.

But yes, for sure, there are sound meteorological reasons why this storm, still 5+ days away, will "bump south" a couple times, right into your own backyard, then "lock it in."

I can identify no flaws in your analysis.

Not Wishing or Expecting it to bullseye my back yard.  Just look at the trend in this model and look at the trend in all models over the last week.  Also I'm not in Richmond.  I dont give a Sh*t what the GFS or its ensembles show for this week after its performance lately.

4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Based on...what exactly?

The fact that virtually all other guidance has it north?

It has trended South the last 3 Runs of the Euro.  Why would you think its locked in?   All Models trended south for the Thursday Event.  Euro is the only model that had it locked down and even that trended south some.

Gotta believe this bumps South at least slightly for next run or maybe 2 before in locks in.  We have alot more wiggle room it would appear with this storm.

EPS delivers

Looking forward to everyones take on the EPS here

A Sunday A.M. to Tuesday P.M event for many......  nice to see it within range and not fantasy land

ok Euro is ridic....what are odds of this even half way verifying, lol     love to see it though.   HECS

18z gfs looks awful

Canadian looks interesting at 84.  not sure where it goes from here