JC-CT
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Everything posted by JC-CT
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cosmic dildo taking form and pointing our way -
what would we do without someone chiming in every 30 minutes to tell us we are dumb...
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There's probably not much usefulness in looking at/posting 10:1 maps right now - except for the outer cape, ptype shouldn't be an issue so might as well just post the qpf accumulations. 10:1 snow maps can be a useful guide for "qpf falling as snow" in situations where that matters, although tons of caveats with that obviously.
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That's what I'm leaning towards.
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if that keeps trending earlier, it could maybe be a good thing. hard to say
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It's still a pretty darn good snowstorm for the region, in the big scheme of things. Just that we know it won't have maximized its potential.
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Every weather forecast has an underlying level of uncertainty - anyone who says otherwise is clueless to the basic premise. I think even east of the River, a southeast to northwest gradient is likely. We will probably get into good banding, but I'd expect Steve to do better than us. But predicting the location of the best banding in a major coastal within 15 miles is one of the harder aspects of winter forecasting...probably right below predicting ptype in marginal setups.
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would be best for everyone to never look at the NAM, but the change on the Euro at 12z, after two really consistent runs at 0z and 6z and given how close in we are, has to hurt for many.
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I really believe I'm just fine. I do think it's slipping away for some people. You're right, I did walk away with 15" on 1/7. But most people didn't come close to that, and so it was a lonely 15". I'd much rather not jack but enjoy the social satisfaction of general euphoria when everyone is getting in on a biggie, than jack on a storm where there are more have-nots than haves.
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Quoted for what? Why do you find it so gddamn difficult to distinguish between reading a model output and making a forecast?
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okay good, i'm not crazy for thinking that the 700mb low was not a "banding back to springfield" track. Maybe more like steve to tickling iowastorm - and then obviously pulling east from there
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well that's probably because I have no idea what he's talking about
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I misunderstood one line, nevermind
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you, on the other hand, have been summoned to the principal's office immediately.
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A NCAR employee saying that the grid resolution of the model that beats the US's own nwp month after month after month shouldn't be used is kind of rich, tbh.
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15:1 makes much more sense than kuchera
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ngl, it's a little weird we are calling something that is now consistent on every single model "obscured" or "unresolved" obviously exactly how much is not going to be perfect, but the dual lows are there
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"its not resolved! its not resolved!!", i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob
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Sure, wide swatch of 45". Why not. WHY NOT GEORGE.
