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JC-CT

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Everything posted by JC-CT

  1. JC-CT
    It's not a huge difference, but like tip said, it's kind of a self-feeding dynamic so little changes have the potential for (relatively) outsized effects. I don't think it means much for most of us, but for those on the fringes it could.
  2. JC-CT
    Anyway, I was more focused on the convection in the atlantic.
  3. JC-CT
    Phineas says No. He knows things, he's a very successful person.
  4. JC-CT
    K. KCMH 062051Z 28004KT 3/4SM R28L/P6000FT -SN OVC027 M07/M11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP160 P0000 60000 T10721106 56014
  5. JC-CT
  6. JC-CT
    Your last name initial is "Public"?
  7. JC-CT
    Every run of the HRRR...hour 0 there's much less convection, then hour 1 POOF there it is. Wash, rinse, repeat.
  8. JC-CT
    You are the event
  9. JC-CT
    Hi
  10. JC-CT
    for albany maybe
  11. JC-CT
    I like what I see on the spc meso analysis. Maybe it's weenie goggles, but it seems like every hour, short term guidance is putting too much emphasis on the lead convection. Plus, I see some very small evidence of circulation out there on the radar/satellite, but not nearly what I would have expected based on guidance from this morning. Subtle, obviously.
  12. JC-CT
    It's a little east but a little deeper
  13. JC-CT
    This is what I'm watching on the nowcast...I'd be lying if I said I didn't see some interesting trends on where the low pressure is located off the SE coast right now vs modeling, and some of the short-term guidance corrections I'm watching.
  14. JC-CT
    yes, east of the Appalachians is the one of the few places there are some holes
  15. JC-CT
    virtually the entire United States is under cloud cover right now
  16. JC-CT
    are you friends' bodies still down there?
  17. JC-CT
    Nova Scotia?
  18. JC-CT
  19. JC-CT
    At some point, we just need to start saying "the climatologically favored area"
  20. JC-CT
    I don't really understand the difference between Rhode Island and the Atlantic Ocean tbh.
  21. JC-CT
    it's pretty similar, maybe slightly improved at the end vs 6z
  22. JC-CT
    Granted, there was a brief period where the GFS and 12km NAM were on an island giving the whole sub less than 2", but they corrected pretty quick.
  23. JC-CT
    Yeah, we are talking like a potential difference of 3" or so...big in the context of a projected advisory snowfall, but not so big in the macro view of things.
  24. JC-CT
    it would probably pull it east
  25. JC-CT
    Nice nowcast opportunity here watching the organization of the convection off Florida.
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