J.Spin

Event totals: 8.4” Snow/0.22” L.E. Skies have really cleared out overnight, so it looks like that will mark the end of this event. This Clipper has now taken the top spot for accumulation on the season, edging out the 11/7/2019 short wave/cold front that brought 7.1” exactly a month ahead of this one. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 0.7 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

Yeah, we had some pretty large flakes here when I was out doing 7:00 P.M. observations and analysis, some up to 20 mm across. I assume it was when the ~30 db portion of that streamer pushed through the Winooski Valley:

Event totals: 8.3” Snow/0.22” L.E. Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 21.2 F Sky: Snow (3 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

It seemed like this event was tapering off, but my wife just got home and I saw that we’ve got big flakes pouring down again. Sometimes there can be a diurnal component to these events, but the BTV NWS hasn’t said much in their discussion other than that they were expecting the snowfall to generally slow down as the lapse rates stabilized and moisture decreased.

A few more from around the house this morning:

Yeah, this was by no means a big upslope storm for around here, but it was a nice subtle bread and butter event with little wind, and it definitely put a nice shot of picturesque into the landscape. I had a bit of time this morning, so I pulled out some telephoto lenses and shot a bunch of images from the house of things in the yard with the fresh snow. I’ve got a couple below for now, and I’ll try to get a few more up when I get a chance. A look at how that 50:1+ snow can behave sometimes:

Some of the models did show the snowfall hanging around today – it was really just a blip of blue along the spine of the Northern Greens, but when ratios are like what we’ve had, it doesn’t take much moisture to stack up. You can see that northwest flow still cruising into the spine on the radar – it’s more cellular now as the radar image below shows, but the snowfall doesn’t seem to stop, it just waxes and wanes and at times you’ve got the sun shining with fairly decent accumulation at the same time.

Event totals: 6.8” Snow/0.19” L.E. Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 28.8 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

I’m usually up until roughly midnight on most nights, so if it’s snowing significantly and looks like it will be worth it, I’ll run an analysis (and they’re much quicker now that I don’t even have to melt down the snow). Sometimes I’ll just do one at 10 PM or something and head to bed if I’m tired. Some nights, like earlier this week, I’ll just wait until morning if it doesn’t seem worth it. This kind of snow we’re getting right now though (>50:1 type of stuff) is worth trying to catch to document the actual density, since it will settle fairly fast. I also don’t stress to hard if I don’t catch things at exactly 6 AM in the morning, so I don’t set an alarm and don’t worry about it too much if I’m a little late. Either my wife or I wake up around then anyway, but day after day after day of analyses all winter can be draining if you’re actually getting up specifically for it with an alarm and can never sleep in. It’s really a volunteer activity/service getting the numbers in for CoCoRaHS, so I try not to kill myself with it, as much as I do love rigorous analyses as a scientist. My natural sleep cycle is typically about 6 to 7 hours though, so even if I do catch the midnight and 6 AM observations, it’s not out of the norm. Some mornings I’ll head back to bed to catch another hour if I feel tired, sometimes I’ll catch a quick nap in the evening after work/dinner, so I fit the extra sleep in where it’s needed. My wife needs 8 to 9 hours of sleep, but she’s typically in bed by 9 PM or so, so she gets that in easily. Between observations, skiing, work, family, etc., it definitely keeps the winter rhythm pretty lively around here.

When I checked the Bolton snow report this morning I saw that they were reporting 9” of new in the past 24 hours, so I did a north to south rundown on the overnight/24-hour accumulations from the Vermont ski areas: Jay Peak: 5” Burke: 4” Smuggler’s Notch: 4” Stowe: 6” Bolton Valley: 9” Mad River Glen: 6” Sugarbush: 6” Middlebury: 2” Suicide Six: 5” Pico: 5” Killington: 5” Okemo: 5” Bromley: 6” Magic Mountain: 5” Stratton: 3” Mount Snow: 5” It does look like the Sugarbush through Stowe stretch of the spine has done fairly well for a system that was hitting a bit harder to the south. It’s still snowing pretty nicely down here at the house though, so there should certainly be a bit more to tack on at elevation.

I think we were coming out of a bit of a lull at some point earlier, but as I was looking at the radar this morning, it doesn’t actually look all that different from what you posted yesterday evening. There's definitely a bit more snow incoming:

Event totals: 5.3” Snow/0.16” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 85.0 Snow Density: 1.2% H2O Temperature: 17.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

Event totals: 3.6” Snow/0.14” L.E. This Clipper has actually brought more snow than the last one now, and it’s certainly achieving the 2-4” that was in the point forecast. This event’s had a touch less moisture so far, but ratios have been quite good as the latest round shows. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.0 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 21.9 F Sky: Light Snow (4 to 12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

I just finished up some stuff and looked outside to see the big flakes coming down, so I checked the radar – your post was a couple hours ago and that upslope flow looks like it’s just been cruising along, pounding up against the wall: The day after day of flakes has definitely started to make it look and feel a bit more like typical December around here.

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.6 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.0 Snow Density: 6.3% H2O Temperature: 26.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.17” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 23.0 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches This recent shortwave finished off with a final couple of tenths overnight, but the next one is right on its heels. There was hardly a lull in snowfall before snow started picking up this morning in association with this next Clipper. Our point forecast has 2-4” through this evening, which would put this system in the same range as the last one, but that’s a bit out of synch with the BTV NWS forecast discussion, which would suggest T-2” around here. This system has always looked a bit less potent up here in the northern part of the state, but perhaps the point forecast numbers are due to the way some models have a bit more moisture up here and/or higher snowfall ratios.

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.17” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0 Snow Density: 1.7% H2O Temperature: 24.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.16” L.E. We picked up another 1.5” of snow during the day today, and there’s been some additional snow falling this evening that I’ll roll into the next round of observations. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

There seems to be a nice steady flow with a few ~30 db spots mixed in there. The point forecast here calls for 1-2” today, with a total of roughly 2-4” through Friday, so we’ll see how it all comes together. Modeling has generally had that shortwave on Friday into Saturday a bit south of here as the BTV NWS crew have mentioned in their discussions, but most of the models do seem to get us into some of the snow.

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.06” L.E. I suspect there were flakes here at the house much of the day yesterday, similar to what I saw in Burlington, but any accumulation was minimal until the evening when the snow picked up in intensity. I contemplated running an analysis at midnight last night, but there was only about a half inch on the boards, so it didn’t seem to be needed. Last night’s flakes had some fairly decent size, probably with a range of 2 to 8 mm, but this morning thus far the flakes have been fairly small in the 1 to 2 mm range. From what I’m seeing this morning, the flake size does seem to jump up when the snow intensity increases. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

BTV NWS has slowly brought things up a bit in their discussions over the past couple of days, and they’re thinking up to 6” at the summits. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 741 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 723 PM EST Wednesday... orographic forcing and localized orographic blocking could yield 2-4" of snowfall along the immediate western slopes of the northern Green Mtns (Jeffersonville to Montgomery), and up to 6" possible through Thursday morning across the highest summits from Mt. Mansfield to Jay Peak. Temperatures overnight will fall back into the mid-upper 20s, with highs on Thursday mainly 30-35F.

I arrived in BTV to see that there are already some flakes coming down here. The local radar shows a broad pulse of moisture coming from the SW that stretches from here up to Montreal, so presumably is some of the moisture off of Ontario/Erie.

This was just one of those systems where the high pressure must have been pressing down enough to suppress the expanse of the system, because it was a storm track hugging fairly close to the coast, and those can certainly be decent around here. The storm did deliver a nice freshening of a couple to a few inches to the snowpack at least. It’s nice to know that you’ve essentially got a whole season of consolation prize to look forward to though – local climate will eventually do its thing in the end. On that note, have you looked at the general mid-range modeling for Wednesday through Saturday around here? – it looks like lots of nice bread and butter potential. There’s nothing obvious jumping off the page right now for the BTV NWS crew in their discussion, but you know how these shortwaves and frontal passages can go. Even at face value it looks pretty nice, and it should be fun to see what the mountains do with it.

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.22” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 14.3 Snow Density: 7.0% H2O Temperature: 26.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches