J.Spin

I’m usually up until roughly midnight on most nights, so if it’s snowing significantly and looks like it will be worth it, I’ll run an analysis (and they’re much quicker now that I don’t even have to melt down the snow). Sometimes I’ll just do one at 10 PM or something and head to bed if I’m tired. Some nights, like earlier this week, I’ll just wait until morning if it doesn’t seem worth it. This kind of snow we’re getting right now though (>50:1 type of stuff) is worth trying to catch to document the actual density, since it will settle fairly fast. I also don’t stress to hard if I don’t catch things at exactly 6 AM in the morning, so I don’t set an alarm and don’t worry about it too much if I’m a little late. Either my wife or I wake up around then anyway, but day after day after day of analyses all winter can be draining if you’re actually getting up specifically for it with an alarm and can never sleep in. It’s really a volunteer activity/service getting the numbers in for CoCoRaHS, so I try not to kill myself with it, as much as I do love rigorous analyses as a scientist. My natural sleep cycle is typically about 6 to 7 hours though, so even if I do catch the midnight and 6 AM observations, it’s not out of the norm. Some mornings I’ll head back to bed to catch another hour if I feel tired, sometimes I’ll catch a quick nap in the evening after work/dinner, so I fit the extra sleep in where it’s needed. My wife needs 8 to 9 hours of sleep, but she’s typically in bed by 9 PM or so, so she gets that in easily. Between observations, skiing, work, family, etc., it definitely keeps the winter rhythm pretty lively around here.

When I checked the Bolton snow report this morning I saw that they were reporting 9” of new in the past 24 hours, so I did a north to south rundown on the overnight/24-hour accumulations from the Vermont ski areas: Jay Peak: 5” Burke: 4” Smuggler’s Notch: 4” Stowe: 6” Bolton Valley: 9” Mad River Glen: 6” Sugarbush: 6” Middlebury: 2” Suicide Six: 5” Pico: 5” Killington: 5” Okemo: 5” Bromley: 6” Magic Mountain: 5” Stratton: 3” Mount Snow: 5” It does look like the Sugarbush through Stowe stretch of the spine has done fairly well for a system that was hitting a bit harder to the south. It’s still snowing pretty nicely down here at the house though, so there should certainly be a bit more to tack on at elevation.

I think we were coming out of a bit of a lull at some point earlier, but as I was looking at the radar this morning, it doesn’t actually look all that different from what you posted yesterday evening. There's definitely a bit more snow incoming:

Event totals: 5.3” Snow/0.16” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 85.0 Snow Density: 1.2% H2O Temperature: 17.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

Event totals: 3.6” Snow/0.14” L.E. This Clipper has actually brought more snow than the last one now, and it’s certainly achieving the 2-4” that was in the point forecast. This event’s had a touch less moisture so far, but ratios have been quite good as the latest round shows. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 2.0 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 21.9 F Sky: Light Snow (4 to 12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

I just finished up some stuff and looked outside to see the big flakes coming down, so I checked the radar – your post was a couple hours ago and that upslope flow looks like it’s just been cruising along, pounding up against the wall: The day after day of flakes has definitely started to make it look and feel a bit more like typical December around here.

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.6 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.0 Snow Density: 6.3% H2O Temperature: 26.8 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.17” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 23.0 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches This recent shortwave finished off with a final couple of tenths overnight, but the next one is right on its heels. There was hardly a lull in snowfall before snow started picking up this morning in association with this next Clipper. Our point forecast has 2-4” through this evening, which would put this system in the same range as the last one, but that’s a bit out of synch with the BTV NWS forecast discussion, which would suggest T-2” around here. This system has always looked a bit less potent up here in the northern part of the state, but perhaps the point forecast numbers are due to the way some models have a bit more moisture up here and/or higher snowfall ratios.

Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.17” L.E. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0 Snow Density: 1.7% H2O Temperature: 24.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.16” L.E. We picked up another 1.5” of snow during the day today, and there’s been some additional snow falling this evening that I’ll roll into the next round of observations. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.10 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 27.3 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

There seems to be a nice steady flow with a few ~30 db spots mixed in there. The point forecast here calls for 1-2” today, with a total of roughly 2-4” through Friday, so we’ll see how it all comes together. Modeling has generally had that shortwave on Friday into Saturday a bit south of here as the BTV NWS crew have mentioned in their discussions, but most of the models do seem to get us into some of the snow.

Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.06” L.E. I suspect there were flakes here at the house much of the day yesterday, similar to what I saw in Burlington, but any accumulation was minimal until the evening when the snow picked up in intensity. I contemplated running an analysis at midnight last night, but there was only about a half inch on the boards, so it didn’t seem to be needed. Last night’s flakes had some fairly decent size, probably with a range of 2 to 8 mm, but this morning thus far the flakes have been fairly small in the 1 to 2 mm range. From what I’m seeing this morning, the flake size does seem to jump up when the snow intensity increases. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7 Snow Density: 6.0% H2O Temperature: 27.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

BTV NWS has slowly brought things up a bit in their discussions over the past couple of days, and they’re thinking up to 6” at the summits. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 741 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 723 PM EST Wednesday... orographic forcing and localized orographic blocking could yield 2-4" of snowfall along the immediate western slopes of the northern Green Mtns (Jeffersonville to Montgomery), and up to 6" possible through Thursday morning across the highest summits from Mt. Mansfield to Jay Peak. Temperatures overnight will fall back into the mid-upper 20s, with highs on Thursday mainly 30-35F.

I arrived in BTV to see that there are already some flakes coming down here. The local radar shows a broad pulse of moisture coming from the SW that stretches from here up to Montreal, so presumably is some of the moisture off of Ontario/Erie.

This was just one of those systems where the high pressure must have been pressing down enough to suppress the expanse of the system, because it was a storm track hugging fairly close to the coast, and those can certainly be decent around here. The storm did deliver a nice freshening of a couple to a few inches to the snowpack at least. It’s nice to know that you’ve essentially got a whole season of consolation prize to look forward to though – local climate will eventually do its thing in the end. On that note, have you looked at the general mid-range modeling for Wednesday through Saturday around here? – it looks like lots of nice bread and butter potential. There’s nothing obvious jumping off the page right now for the BTV NWS crew in their discussion, but you know how these shortwaves and frontal passages can go. Even at face value it looks pretty nice, and it should be fun to see what the mountains do with it.

Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.22” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.0 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 14.3 Snow Density: 7.0% H2O Temperature: 26.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.15” L.E. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.15 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 24.4 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

We were at 1.2” when I checked around 9:00 P.M., so we seem right on track for the 1 to 2” that the BTV NWS has in our point forecast for the evening.

I didn’t see exactly when it started, but it’s been snowing here since some point before 6 PM. It’s a fairly moderate rate of snowfall made up of a mixture of flake sizes.

Thanks, and I realized that having the dates for the various snow events would be helpful with respect to seeing how they were distributed throughout the month, so I updated the post with those. Indeed, I think a 4” call seems pretty good around here. There’s certainly a snowfall gradient up here in the northern part of the system, so it will be interesting to see where the numbers ultimately end up by the time it winds down.

Below I’ve got the updated maps from the BTV NWS associated with upcoming Winter Storm Ezekiel. With this update, Winter Weather Advisories were pushed northward into Addison and Orange counties, and the some of the accumulation ranges were pushed northward accordingly. Our area was in the 3-4” shading on the previous map, but with the northward push we’re on the edge of the 4-6” shading now. It looks like the edges of the accumulation ranges have been refined a bit more to account for the cutoff on the northern edge of the storm, because some areas in the northern part of the state were tapered back a bit. Our point forecast here suggests something in the 3-6” range for accumulations through Tuesday, which seems well in line with the current projected accumulations map.

November Totals Accumulating Events: 12 Snowfall: 17.8” Liquid Equivalent: 6.00” 2019 Precipitation: 58.47” At one point it looked like this November might try to rival last November with respect to snowfall, but now that the numbers are in, it’s not even in the same league. I guess I forgot how snowy last November was, but with this November delivering only half the snow we saw last year, the contrast is quite stark. This November was still a few inches above average with respect to total liquid and snowfall, but with +1 S.D. for snowfall at close to two feet, the month was well in the realm of normalcy. Barring some highly anomalous warmth this December, this season’s period of continuous snowpack would be starting on November 8th, which is definitely noteworthy and bested last season’s start date by two days. This is of course more of a seasonal vs. a monthly stat though. This November did have a noteworthy achievement with 12 accumulating snowfall events however, besting last season’s 10 events. I haven’t checked to confirm, but I’m pretty sure that’s got to be tops in my records. So although this November was relatively middle of the pack with respect to overall snowfall (rank #5), the below average temperatures did help to achieve an impressive number of accumulating events. This month’s events are listed below: 0.2” – (11/3) Weak mid-level trough moving in from Great Lakes bringing lake-effect moisture on WSW flow 7.1” – (11/7) Strong cold front + associated shortwave, lake moisture & convective snow showers 5.1” – (11/10) Winter Storm Caleb - surface low pressure tracking through New England 0.4” – (11/14) Upper-level shortwave and associated warm front 1.1” – (11/15) Cold front and associated squalls 0.2” – (11/19) Warm coastal system merging with weaker Great Lakes low pressure 0.9” – (11/20) Upper-level shortwave trough/inverted trough 0.1” – (11/22) Warm/cold fronts from storm well NW of St. Lawrence Valley 1.0” – (11/24) Coastal storm passing through southeastern Massachusetts 0.9” – (11/27) Winter Storm Dorothy - low pressure passing NW of New England 0.1” – (11/29) Snowfall from low level moisture 0.7” – (11/30) Weak moisture boundary moving N to S over international border

Event totals: 0.7” Trace L.E. There are still a few flakes fluttering by at times, but we’ve also had periods with sun this morning, and based on the radar it looks like the moist flow bringing the snow globe conditions has finally tapered off. We picked up another tenth as of 10 PM in the evening, and then there were another couple tenths on the boards this morning, but unless something changes, the totals above should be it for this event. All liquid analyses came in below 0.01” resulting in just a trace overall, although if the analysis had been done all at once it might have hit that measurable level. In any event, the flakes have been fluffy and the accumulations quite dry, so there’s not much moisture in the snow to speak of. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 9.3 F Sky: Partly Clear Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

I’ve got the current maps from the BTV NWS associated with upcoming Winter Storm Ezekiel pasted below, and I suspect they’ll have some updates later today with their latest thoughts.