J.Spin

Flakes started up here in Waterbury at ~8:15 A.M.

Yeah, we’ll have to see what the NWS offices think when they make their afternoon updates. Actually, when I looked at some of the midday model runs I saw a lot of guidance showing a level of overall northward movement, but I’m going to assume that’s not quite a main topic of conversation in the storm thread.

I was just taking a peek at the models, and with respect to subsequent events the next week or so has a potentially nice look. We’re really going to need multiple rounds to get surface conditions back to something respectable, but on top of last night’s back side squalls, there’s: · Tuesday system (Winter Storm Finley) · Wednesday’s cold front/squalls · Sunday · Mid next week? Of course those latter potential events are well up in the air, but much of what’s shown is bread and butter northern stream flow, which is typically much more reliable. At face value all these events would be forecast as “light” snow, which is prudent, but we know what can and often does happen when they hit the mountains. I guess we’ll see how it goes, but in many ways it would be nice to just have these things deliver ahead of the holiday week vs. some potentially larger storm screwing things up. I just checked my numbers, and average snowfall through the 15th of December at our site is 30 inches, so even with the ups and downs, we’re still a few inches ahead on seasonal snowfall. In terms of monthly snowfall, we’re just about on track as well with 17 inches. So despite the lackluster conditions at the moment, there hasn’t really been a big snowfall issue. These past couple of warm storms have been what’s really knocked down conditions. Using my data, the snowpack depth sort of shows that – it’s only about an inch or so at the house, whereas the average for this date is in the 6 to 8-inch range. Hopefully we’ll get some of that…

Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.79” L.E. The initial small accumulation of snow from early today melted back down, but eventually as temperatures dropped and the snowfall picked up, accumulations happened quickly. There were some intense periods of snow as darkness approached, and it really played havoc with the roads. I headed out to a Christmas party this evening and was lucky I was using Route 2 and timed it such that they’d just put down brine to quickly take care of the flash freeze. I-89 is still all backed up in various places though with what looks like a number of accidents, and I’m sure it’s been frustrating for folks who have been stuck in that traffic. Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 21.4 Snow Density: 4.7% H2O Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Light Snow (1 to 4 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 1.5 inches

We’ve had flakes in the air at least since observations time this morning, but they’ve been very small and sparse. And, temperatures were still well up into the 30s F, so there was no accumulation to report. The skies did start to darken somewhat in the later morning, and around 11:30 A.M. the pace of the snowfall picked up to the point where we started to get some accumulation. We’re still a bit above freezing down at this elevation, but temperatures are supposed to come down as we head into the afternoon. The moisture from the west is certainly visible on the radar though:

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.44” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 34.9 F Sky: Rain Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches After 6:00 P.M. observations yesterday, we had a bit more snow, the some sleet, and the precipitation has been rain since then. The forecast indicates that precipitation heads back to snow tonight into tomorrow on the back side of the system: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 730 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Tonight rain will change to snow showers with snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches likely from northern New York into parts of northern Vermont by Sunday afternoon.

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01” L.E. As of 6:00 P.M. observations we’d picked up a couple tenths of an inch of snow from the front end of the current system. Since then there’s been a bit more snow as well as some sleet and mist. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: 34.0 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

I just got an alert that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory, which is up for potential freezing rain on the front end of this system. Overall it looks like this storm has a bit of freezing precipitation on the front end, some snow on the back end, and plain rain in the middle.

From discussions here and elsewhere, I recall that at points in the past, observations were made right in Burlington proper, closer to the lake, vs. where they are now out by the airport a few more miles inland. There’s certainly less snow accumulation (at least in the fall and early winter when the lake is warm) right down by the lake front, so that’s a possible contributor. I’m not sure when the location change happened, but PF might have some insight into it.

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.02” L.E. The initial squall that passed through here was pretty intense, and we were actually under a Snow Squall Warning as the BTV NWS shifted them in our direction. There are still some flakes out there as residual moisture flows through. Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 24.6 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.31” L.E. This most recent event has cleared out as of this morning. I had debated putting last night’s snow into its own event with the way the BTV NWS spoke about it as a distinct dew point boundary, but it really did seem to be trailing moisture from the main system, so I’ve kept it all together. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 20.7 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches The next potential snow event in the pipe appears to be coming into the area this afternoon with low pressure and its attendant cold front moving over from Lake Superior. There’s more substantial lake moisture anticipated to affect the Saint Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks, but some may make it over to the Northern Greens as well.

Since we’re back below freezing now, I went out to empty the rain gauge and return it to winter mode. It had an additional 0.14” of liquid in it, so that puts the liquid at 0.31” for this event. While I was outside I saw that some flakes we had earlier have turned into a steadier light snow now, with a couple of tenths of new accumulation down. It looks like it’s from a band passing through the area that’s visible on radar:

Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E. I found a tenth of an inch of frozen on the boards this morning from the front end of this current system. I put the inner cylinder back in the rain gauge based on the forecast for this next part of the storm, which should be above freezing until tomorrow. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 34.5 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

LOL, that’s a pretty vague response, but I think he’s just pulling your leg.

It’s not as if it really going to change any actual winter forecasting though; the pros at the NWS don’t spew out those snow maps; even TWC doesn’t throw them out there – they generate their own consensus projection maps. The people who I generally see putting those maps out there are weenies and Twitter “mets”, who are essentially on the scene for fun and entertainment vs. having any actual professional responsibility with respect to forecasting.

I just noticed that the totally clear skies we had this morning have clouded over again, and the sky is starting to look like it has the potential for snow. I see on the radar that there is moisture coming into the area, and the BTV NWS suggests that it’s in association with the warm front ahead of this next system.

Event totals: 8.4” Snow/0.22” L.E. Skies have really cleared out overnight, so it looks like that will mark the end of this event. This Clipper has now taken the top spot for accumulation on the season, edging out the 11/7/2019 short wave/cold front that brought 7.1” exactly a month ahead of this one. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 0.7 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

Man Ginx, most of those averages are insane; that really puts things in perspective. I don’t know the exact numbers, but I have to assume with the way Ezekiel went down in some spots, people could go the entirety of December without another flake and they’d still be ahead on mean annual snowfall.

Yeah, we had some pretty large flakes here when I was out doing 7:00 P.M. observations and analysis, some up to 20 mm across. I assume it was when the ~30 db portion of that streamer pushed through the Winooski Valley:

Event totals: 8.3” Snow/0.22” L.E. Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 21.2 F Sky: Snow (3 to 20 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

It seemed like this event was tapering off, but my wife just got home and I saw that we’ve got big flakes pouring down again. Sometimes there can be a diurnal component to these events, but the BTV NWS hasn’t said much in their discussion other than that they were expecting the snowfall to generally slow down as the lapse rates stabilized and moisture decreased.

A few more from around the house this morning:

Yeah, this was by no means a big upslope storm for around here, but it was a nice subtle bread and butter event with little wind, and it definitely put a nice shot of picturesque into the landscape. I had a bit of time this morning, so I pulled out some telephoto lenses and shot a bunch of images from the house of things in the yard with the fresh snow. I’ve got a couple below for now, and I’ll try to get a few more up when I get a chance. A look at how that 50:1+ snow can behave sometimes:

Some of the models did show the snowfall hanging around today – it was really just a blip of blue along the spine of the Northern Greens, but when ratios are like what we’ve had, it doesn’t take much moisture to stack up. You can see that northwest flow still cruising into the spine on the radar – it’s more cellular now as the radar image below shows, but the snowfall doesn’t seem to stop, it just waxes and wanes and at times you’ve got the sun shining with fairly decent accumulation at the same time.

Event totals: 6.8” Snow/0.19” L.E. Details from the 1:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.5 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0 Snow Density: 2.0% H2O Temperature: 28.8 F Sky: Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches