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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol You really do take this seriously. That's crazy. But you haven't addressed my point over trades cooling before the next burst. Those are the facts.
  2. mitchnick
    Between now and the next burst, you have trades with cooling taking place per attached map. I'm not worried. There's no difference in weather +/- .25C imho and there's nothing we can do about it if there was. I'm just here for the sport of it. Why are you so paranoid about those who disagree with you?
  3. mitchnick
    It better for your prog to have any chance because it pales in comparison to the last one as of today.
  4. mitchnick
    I wonder if it's all downhill from here.
  5. mitchnick
    Porsche looked.
  6. mitchnick
    Just don't look at the Gfs. Don't do it.
  7. mitchnick
    I don't see how you can reach any such conclusions without looking at the entire Northern Hemisphere, if not the entire globe. Even then, your 2nd point is just your opinion/speculation.
  8. mitchnick
    Ssta and "and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." Do you know exactly what they are this year and exactly how they compare to 15/16 because it doesn't state the relative level of impact of Ssta and those "...associated background thermodynamic conditions?"
  9. mitchnick
    -.1°
  10. mitchnick
    Ensembles all look like dog doo, so it's hard to get excited until that changes.
  11. mitchnick
  12. mitchnick
    Odd, because Coral Reefs went the other way a bit.
  13. mitchnick
    Icon and Gfs say we got a chance next week at 1st measurable snow. Edit: Missed Jns2183 post re Gfs.
  14. mitchnick
    Yep. Cfs OLR prog lock step with MJO prog. Best part for Mid Atlantic and further south I believe, it ends up just east of the dateline. May be good for NE, but not certain about that.
  15. mitchnick
    25
  16. mitchnick
    Surprising to see 3 drop so much in the last week.
  17. mitchnick
    Not that I feel at all comfortable defending the Cfs, but once it lost the +2 handle back in late August or early September, unlike all other guidance, it's done best. Can it cr@p the bed now? Sure, but the next warming isn't like the last one.
  18. mitchnick
    Fyi, current take by the Eps.
  19. mitchnick
    Agree with the bump, but not enough to push the mean over +2 for a month or more.
  20. mitchnick
    Yeah, Cfs is still unimpressed. I mention it because it is updated daily unlike the rest of the guidance.
  21. mitchnick
    Courtesy Eskimo Joe
  22. mitchnick
    Ashame that model he posted to forecast the month only goes out to the 12th and changes every day along with every other MJO prog.
  23. mitchnick
    20.1
  24. mitchnick
    That's not new. Both of us have posts referencing it and yesterday I posted how the Cfs had weakened it over the past 3 days.
  25. mitchnick
    Whooops....missed that.
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