TheWeatherPimp

The Northern threat area is definitely tricky. The HRRR is trying to clear things out by 14z across nearly all of Indiana with destabilization then in-progress. With the two surface low reflections, winds back pretty significantly across the Northern threat area with very high levels of low level shear, just not as much instability. Tough call really, but with the lows spinning near by and plenty of effective shear at the surface, the potential is definitely there.

There continue to be some very critical differences between the NAM and GFS for tomorrow. Should be an interesting day to see how things evolve.

Stronger surface reflection could also cause a farther NW Track, might not be much, but at least some. The NAM showing some impressive STP numbers across Eastern Indiana/Western Ohio.

00z GFS is ugly for portions of Eastern Indiana/Ohio

The backed wind potential on Wednesday is insane

Tomorrow is looking better and better with precip clearing out of Indiana by 12z with destabilization in progress across Eastern Illinois and all of Indiana by late morning per the rapid refresh.

The other guidance - except the NAM, have all trended farther Northwest with the low as well.

SREF Sig Tornado Param really shooting up now for Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday and Wednesday look to have some amazing potential with all ingredients coming together for what could be a multi-day regional outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes. Obviously some fine details to work out and with this much precipitation occurring along the frontal boundary, it will be difficult to pinpoint some of the mesoscale features until we get into the more near to short term, but as CUmet stated, all kinds of potential here.

Wow on the 12z GFS for Tuesday

Both the 12z NAM & GFS portray a significant threat of tornadoes Wednesday Evening across Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky.

Based off the 12z GFS, Tuesday could be a very significant severe weather day with a very large risk area

00z EURO much more bullish on the severe weather threat farther North in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday - tracking the low farther NW with a broader and more expansive warm sector

Very impressive discussion from the Indianapolis Office SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER SURFACE WAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL REINTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE REMAIN MAXIMIZED WITHIN THIS AREA WITH PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. ONE NOTED CHANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL ALSO EXPAND BACK NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL ONLY EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL ALIGN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHIFTING TO THE WARM SECTOR...THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON...GROWING INTO TUESDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BL SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AN INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE HELICITIES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 0-1KM VALUES EXCEEDING 100S2/M2 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER BECOMING A STRONG POSSIBILITY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ALONG WITH A RENEWED CONCERN FOR CONVECTION TRAINING OVER SATURATED AREAS AND INCREASING CONCERNS FOR MORE FLOODING. WITH WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 9KFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...THERE MAY A BRIEF RESPITE WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. YET ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT EJECTS OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SPINS UP AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINS INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MOS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AS YET ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING AN INTENSIFYING LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH A RENEWED SURGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN MORE CONCERNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF TORRENTIAL FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA ON TOP OF WHATEVER FALLS THROUGH TUESDAY. DYNAMICS ARE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN 850MB JET IN EXCESS OF 60KTS NOSES INTO THE REGION. MUCH MORE DETAIL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT TO CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRONT WILL FINALLY KICK EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ALL DAY THURSDAY TO CROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE CAN FINALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE A RESPITE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE ALREADY HINTS OF ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME BUT THINK ITS FAIR TO SAY THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.

12z Euro is very ominous with a very large and broad warm sector

Obviously one of the biggest questions is how far North does the warm front and low pressure make it on Tuesday and Wednesday.