Radders
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Everything posted by Radders
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We are right on the cusp of 0.75.. Southern and Eastern parts of the area are definitely in the 0.75 range.
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At 120, I would say we are between 0.5 and 0.75 in the HV, higher number in the range to the south and east, but there is probably more snow to come. Edit - That i probably about the size of it... So a moderate hit.. but SNE gets the brunt of this.
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114, continuing to deepen and drift NE... Gonna start looking at precip now...
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108, continues to bomb... bullseye is SNE but a moderate hit over this way... I think you probably get the picture now.... A little east but not bad at all...Stalled south of CC...starting to occlude
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At 96, 988 low 50 mies east of Ocean City MD - Definitely East of 12Z and quicker... At 102, bombing out south of Long Island, can't even tell the pressure, but crushing SNE with precip thrown back all the way over to the HV..
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At 90, 992 low 30 miles or so off the coast of NC... Trough trying to go negative...
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84, 1000 low of the coast of SC, a little east of 12Z... The main thing here is that the trough has a broader look to it than 12Z, which was more compact, allowing the low to sit tighter towards the coast... This may go east, not sure.
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78, 1008 low over florida, continuing to dig/tilt.. Height fields starting to switch to a more SW/NE orientation to align with the coast.....
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72 - 1012 Low starting to form in the GoM, trough starting to tilt, but looks a little broader based than the 12Z
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At 60, the s/w is still hanging back, but the theme here is northern energy is far more involved, so the heights are rising in the east more... I think this might be a good thing though.
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similar...but also the same as the 12Z euro.
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At 54, slightly further east than the 12Z with the southern s/w, but only a fraction, but far more northern stream interaction.
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48, southern stream still identical in speed to 12Z.. Back side of trough is more pronounced, so heights are rising in the east a little more. Northern stream definitely getting involved more on this run.
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At 36, the s/w is in exactly the same position as the 12Z but now it almost closed, so it may be even a little stronger....
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Me too... So far at 24, speed is pretty much identical. Edit - Same at 30.
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18 hours looks the same..
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Out to 12, no differences to the 12Z at 24hrs so far.
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OK.. Not sure who is around, but the Euro has initialized... Get ready...
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Goodnight Tornadojay. Thanks for your posts tonight.. It is nice to have a Met in here to bounce some thoughts off of. The Tombo NYC/PA play by play is cool too, but it can get a bit insane sometimes!
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TJay, I am on holidays too now, so I am definitely staying up for the Euro.. I will post in here if you and others are going to be around.
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It really is tough to call. If the euro holds again tonight, I will be amazed. But we were in this position last night, so we know it is possible. Perhaps the euro is just handling the various areas of vorticity so much better than than all of the models.
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So do you buy the faster progression of the southern energy that the GFS/NAM are depicting?
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Yes, I am
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Good run for Eastern parts of SNE - Cape Cod gets crushed.
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It is not terrible, and the low bombs out pretty well.. But you are right, no closed H5.. Also, the GFS is so much faster.. So curious to see what the euro does. e.g. is going to be this fast too?