WEATHER53

Most all high end predictions don’t work out anymore but let’s see if the Mega Front concept still can . its my own arbitrary but these are the parameters to qualify around DC . Either/Or does it 13 degree drop in one hour. 18 degree drop in 2 hours 23 degree drop in 3 hours 28 degree drop in 6 hours 35 degree drop in 12 hours 42 degree drop in 24 hours I believe great November front if 1995 that set off great 95-96 winter qualified on all 6 or 5 of 6 and I can’t remember another that did.

Please send some pics or vids

Take a break. Exhale. Realize others are entitled to some space here.

Thanks

The 4 pages before this one has approximately 120 responses. One guy has 39 You all can be the judge of what that translates into

Yeah thanks for being interested and we do well but it’s there over last several days i posed questions looking into why clippers snd Miller As have become much rarer. I brought up how good cold air masses dive in and out in 24 hours and don’t stay 2-2.5 days like when it snowed more . I’ve stated that since gas stoves and cow farts have created much hand wringing, how about outside the box like volcanoes, earth quakes , tsunamis lave flow including below sea , ice melt, on and on. Those things slap Mother Nature and the entire Earth way more than puny humans. I’m not just “complaining” (fact recognition really) . Now, some of my questions may not be pertinent but rather than bombastically model hug, I pose them. There have always been ardent model huggers here and 1 or 2 who feel like they run the place. We’ve had them before. I hope this answers part of the questions that you legitimately asked about, Thanks

Couple pages back. I’m not in here constantly so the info won’t always be on same page

Honestly it’s embarrassing as it’s number one defect

Most of the references to “our problems” are index related unproven theories offered up to “explain” why forecasting methods Are Not Working Start researching and implementing different methods of approach instead of model hugging as if we are Lost without them. I’ve made three very detailed snd specific and different suggestions over last 4/5 days and the responses are general chastisement and model clinging. I mean let’s hear from some other than the same 1/2 lengthy responders. Yes or No answers only to the below. 1.Do you think models were effective in predicting or assisting in prediction of our winter weather 2023-24 2.Do you have a general satisfaction with them during your.time of involvement with But….but…buts means No

Shouldn’t this be in banter now or at least removed from this weather section? Thanks

A broke tool rarely fixes a broke tool

Why is it now rare for a clipper to cut and even cut and curl underneath of us. Average winter would happen 2-4 times, great one 5+, lousy one 1-2, recently 0-1. Why? Instead of assailing me for stating the status quo is not a useful tool, let’s find some answers but first gotta drop The Denial

Cold low of 26

Way less time and effort on messing with trying to fix what is now clearly broken Let the brains start looking into the “Why”. Why don’t we get Miller As anymore I think one this season. My history is DC used to be at least 50/50 As versus cutters and transfer crap but no more. More like 80/20 for what’s no help nowdays. Why? Start answering that and things like that and may see why our existing predictive methods mostly fail

It was nice for 7 minutes. Steady almost moderate snow.in Laurel, dropped to 36. Back on raid minutes later and zip and 40. 5th best event of the season . 34 Kemp Mill now

In Laurel and have wet snow and sleet mixing with showers 40F

I can accept that winter sucked What isn’t acceptable is the suckage of how it was continually predicted. That stems for the models themselves and the off the wall continual worship here of “15 days away” The death blow was the cocky “mid to late Feb we guarantee”. I am hoping maybe this can become a true weather Discussion board again with a decrease in the fantasy gossip.

A hobby has to be mostly rewarding 90% of this winter has sucked and has been poorly discussed and poorly predicted . Reevaluation is underway

Essentially we have broken and dull tools at our disposal. Active weather sells. All media types know that. They hype it. Then the hype spreads to “well we know what these indexes WILL do…oh, there’s a new index to try on” Humility works and bombast declarations don’t. The pronounced /hyped “mid to late Feb” was a travesty of misdiagnosis and arrogance . Instead of reality too many wishes are presented as likely occurrent reality. And the reality never arrives because it’s Always “15+ days away” I said in December the delaying pattern we were developing Had to change or we were in trouble . Much crying and chastising over that. I was right We need a new and different boat to float with.

Hourlies been missing and on and off but they are starting to fill the info in and are current now

Wild time today just se of Frederick. Sky turned summertime thunderstorm black between 3:30-4 and moderate rain by 4:15 with 8 easily audible thunder reports, two shook the house, brilliant flashes of lightning during daylight, and last bolt about 6:15 Ive gone summers where this might have been #1 but more like 2/3. No hail and winds moderate but not wild, under 30 gusts .

Multiple thunderstorms in Frederick since 4:15

See I’ve provided that about 5 times and even in last 36-48 hours after the most recent 6-120 hour bust but you all won’t read it. You flare up instead almost as if addicted SO For one last time Ditch the 7+ . A lot of extended weather is corrupted for agricultural and oil futures advisements Stop looking at weather through a microscope. It does not enhance the resolution but rather blurs it. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough of a close up, really 10x10. The closer up you zoom that more the errors rapidly multiply.. Go with less calculus and more AI stipulated analog composition Begin to consider that earthquakes,volcanoes and huge tidal waves actually may have shifted things in some way. Lord knows plenty buy into gas stoves and cow farts as our ruination and the things I mentioned are 20,000X stoves and cows. if one is wedded to all is just fine now then sally forth. I recognize that to not be true and yes I say so and it bothers the huggers real bad but I have had and do right now have my suggestions for alternatives I’m not the genius who invented models so maybe go to some other real smart hands on the controls guys who actually want a better forecasting science

Volunteered the details many times and as recently as 36 hours ago. Not doing that over and over for people who feel utterly lost without myriads of useless example samples that don’t work and are worse than ever right now. Being observant and critical does not mandate a solution. That’s a gimmick. You have expressed your vote for more of the same

Lots of offerings of all these indexes that “went wrong” when really it’s our prediction methods that are the biggest problem