WEATHER53

That was a huge boomer at 8:45 that sounded like a big crash .

For the most part we in Dc benefit the most from a mid December start to a cold pattern. They never last more than one solid month or interspersed in a two month period and then back to mild trend . I think Nov is about a 50/50 split whereas in general we do not want October to be solidly below average

37 for my Kemp Mill low, coldest of season and Frederick hit 32 and stayed there for an hour also coldest of season

Lengthy spate of showers and drizzle and 20 mph breezes with gusts to 35. it did not deliver the heavy rain nor stronger winds but it’s certainly not a non event

Rain mass is west of Rocky Mount and still moving wnw and that’s a historical reference to me for rain mass making it thoroughly over DC

Forecasters catching on now. Models mean zip. Look at the radar and other tools. Already a solid east to west movement of rain down the coast . This won’t be missing DC to the east. Sat: Rain developing late . Sat night:Rain , , heavy at times with ne winds increasing 20-30mph Sunday : Rainy and raw with ne winds 20-30 mph, sustained 25-35mph possible, gusts to 40 and gusts to 50 possible, chilly highs 55-60 Monday: Rainy ending in afternoon and windy, DC area rainfall 1-3” Little change in my forecast since Monday

42 for a low and that’s coolest of season

Models won’t get this right. A lot of combined energies exploding right over the mid Atlantic region .

I think winds may go sustained 25-30 gusting to 40. Be fun to get hit but not hurt

I was on my balcony in Beltsville and watched it change to snow. Had to overcome a lot but got 0.5” and that’s earliest ever.

64.5 for the high which was coolest max of season. I’m going to be in 40’s by midnight and that has not happened this season

My latest update on this is it continues to increase in intensity By very late Saturday night or wee hours of Sunday it gets going. Winds pick up to 20-30 from e-ne and temps hold in 50’s Sunday with squally rains and winds 25-35 gusting to 50 before ending around dawn Monday with 1-3” of rain and strong ne winds all day Monday. Should I create a new thread “The 53 storm discussion and obs” ?

Get ready for this one 20-30 sustained with gusts to 40 and 1-3” around DC . Stars mid to late Sat and may not end until Monday morning

There was no text forecasting nor model support for mid Atlantic storminess MTW of this week and I issued my statement on Monday. What one model said for one run on Sunday dont mean shit and even that was just showery.and east of DC We have self appointed hall monitors here in the winter and don’t need that year round. Sorry for you that getting it right irks you

The system is now being forecasted as potent despite a pissy hissy in another thread

Bullshit

You best be sure before you say someone is lying chump. On Monday I mentioned the storminess and had several discredits of it and it’s really only today that models have started showing storminess with NWS first introducing chance if showers last night. You need to keep your irksome of my early and good observation to yourself

48.3 for my low and models now picking up on storminess I referenced back on 10/6.

This is what I was on to days ago in the October thread and the models had nothing about it until now. I still expect 20-30 sustained gusting to 40 and 1-3 around DC

NWS finally working some rain in for late Sat and look for this pending event to receive more attention very soon

I went 7/4/2 so graded F/C+/A

Not gone yet . Wild pressure gradient develops

Maine set some high temp records today . This system for the weekend looks potent for DC

I also find a reverse correlation in Oct but it’s for the first half and for temps

Many times in the mid Atlantic we get our first tropucal influence about 5 days after the first real cool shot moves out. The first cool one is over us right now and I’m curious to see what happens next