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FlatLander48

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Everything posted by FlatLander48

  1. FlatLander48
    That's a good comparison based on current runs, the only thing that stands out differently about this one as of now is the potential for a good 2nd thump behind the storm.
  2. FlatLander48
    Think before you speak, most if not all models this morning are trending better for many across the board, and the ensemble members are amazing for most.
  3. FlatLander48
    Not going to lie, I'm still not buying the numbers, in terms of snowfall. temp profiles are close enough and are fluctuating enough even for us that things can change in a hurry. I did make an initial "snapchat" forecast with 6 to 8 for the storm, but I'm not budging from that til 2 days out, maybe 3, once we get the NAM and other short range models on board.
  4. FlatLander48
    Yea, if the Sanitarium was going to be busy before, it's going to be a mad house in here now.
  5. FlatLander48
    Cant remember if this has been asked, but do the GFS and the FV3 receive the same data and interpret it differently, or is there new form of data the the new model receives?
  6. FlatLander48
    well the 12z GFS was a shit show for the northern counties.
  7. FlatLander48
    Do we even use the NAVGEM anymore? Anyways, we are now getting closer to it's use, and at hr 144 it has the low substantially farther west than the GFS and Euro. The Euro is a tad closer.
  8. FlatLander48
    Based on surface maps on the 0z GFS, the only difference is that the HP is slightly SW compared to 18z. the LP placement appears on 0z sunday on the 9th the exact same as the 18z.
  9. FlatLander48
    And even if for whatever reason it didn't it's December 9th or whatever date it does hit. We should all be glad we have a storm of this potential magnitude this early in the season. It's going to be a long season, and everyone is going to get their share.
  10. FlatLander48
    I did as soon as I posted my last thought. Guess It's over for me now.
  11. FlatLander48
    Absolutely glorious.
  12. FlatLander48
    If I see another person use the word "trend" after one model run, I'm going to croak.
  13. FlatLander48
    Already bought an extra large tub of popcorn. This week is going to be fun. In more ways than one lol
  14. FlatLander48
    Let's also remember a warmer miller B transition is still possible, and could very easily happen.
  15. FlatLander48
    Well hope everyone that is going to the game enjoys it, I'll be listening from work where I'll be selling drugs to people, so mark me jealous.
  16. FlatLander48
    18z GFS HP considerably weaker compared to 12z.
  17. FlatLander48
    FV3 looks similar to this, with the HP a few ticks stronger. beautiful site this early.
  18. FlatLander48
    Yea ended up pretty nice, I was extremely disappointed with the icy aspect Monday night(I'm tired of cutting trees at my parents place lol) But last night really surprised a lot of people. -1 for all the weather apps that didn't have any accumulations even as it was coming in hard. Glad my friends knew it was gonna get rough for a bit though.
  19. FlatLander48
    wow, that's a nice shot! And yea, where my development is, is a couple hundred feet higher than Boone so on a setup like this we can get a decent amount more than downtown.
  20. FlatLander48
    Man it's beautiful out. Got home this morning around 530am, and was the first car to come up the hill to the cottages in probably an hour with unplowed roads. Felt like the first true snowstorm of the year lol, but glad to know my Subaru can make it up that hill with snow on it. Coming in at just under 4 inches at the house, loving it.
  21. FlatLander48
    Maybe half an inch at the house, hard to tell with the wind. Better than the scene last night when it was just a bit of ice.
  22. FlatLander48
    So...this sucks
  23. FlatLander48
    Oh and keep an eye on December 6th. GFS keeps throwing hints, whether it's the old or new versions, and has been for over a week now.
  24. FlatLander48
    Yea my "snapchat" forecast I made a couple of days ago is 2-3 and I'm sticking with that.
  25. FlatLander48
    Shows like 6-8 in Boone. Bull crap and even has me laughing at this point.
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