87storms

The purpose of this system is to recover the 1-2” lost via compaction and melting from the Monday storm.

Ngl, next week's temps look kind of appealing.  I want the next storm to be legit.  Not sure if that happens this year, but we have had some qpf producers (creeks are flowing nicely around here)...just gotta find the right timing.

Not much is gonna change less than 2 days before an event lol.  Maybe we go from 1-2" to be squarely within 2-4".  The last system trended well, but overall the models were pretty locked in on the stripe of snow being near dc to bmore...we just hit the top end of it, so hopefully we can do that again.

There seems to have been more room for coastal development with the last system. This time, the flow up top seems more progressive with the cold front basically plowing thru before next week’s moderating trend. I think the way to win is to be able to get the low to redevelop quicker and closer to the coast before it exits the stage.

Snow on snow is underrated. Even if it’s just a 1-2” deal, it can still look like a fresh snowstorm.

Definitely a premier sunset out this way...and noticeably chilly.  Gonna be some slick spots on the roads.

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What one “off” run does to mf after 6 consecutive good trends

Pump the brakes.

I was making an analysis because it was getting quiet to prompt analysis...didn't once say "it won't snow".  I said my expectations are of a light event.  I could lie and say my expectations are for a nor'easter (but that's a want).

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Right now until noon Thursday the model are engaged in waffle mode.  Every six hours will move back and forth showing DC proper getting from 0.5” to 5”. 

You're probably not wrong lol.  I'm rooting for a moderate event...and a diggier vort.

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

S/w coming down was dug actually further south than 12z, but the trough seemed broader then we'd like. Need more interaction of those energies. Close. That's why the runs can be juiced then dry, a little difference has a big impact. 

It looks like a Norlun trough setup (Philly disco mentioned it)...maybe that's the path to victory.

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s Tuesday and the Euro took a big jump. Not ready for this type of quiet resignation 

I'm just saying as-is, the coastal on both the gfs/euro develops and heads practically due east.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024011618&fh=69

GFS is basically an ots solution.  Euro kind of is, too.  CMC seems iffy with the low deepening that quickly.  I think expectations of a light event is probably the move at this point.

Gem. 12z  

Just took a stroll…got a coating/stat padder from the snow shower. Back to snizzle now. Eyeballing between 4-5” here. Still powdery.

Legitimate moderate snow shower in progress. Very healthy flake size.

Definitely snow as there’s actual dendrites falling.

Looks like pixie dust has returned here. Visibility has gone down, so I don’t think it’s freezing mist. All it wants to do now in Frederick is snow.

Took my final stroll for the eve…kind of an icy snow (for lack of a better term). Moderate misty snowfall. Looked like around ~3” and counting.

Starting to get some yellows rolling through. It’s very Jan ‘00 outside…very much an Atlantic/misty type of snowfall.

Just got to baker park. Prob about 2” total here so far if I had a snowboard. Roads are mostly covered and getting slick. Starting to accumulate very well now.

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

For those of us north of I-70, our good snow is not for later. Enjoy all the stuff now but the show for us has a bit before it takes effect. 
 

Widespread 3-5” with local to 6” is a very solid call right now from Sterling. Things materializing well and on time. A beautiful day 

Yea, I've been eyeing a 10pm stroll around the 'hood...I think that's when things will kick into gear around here.

You can see the system slowly lifting north on satellite:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12&dim=1

Sidewalks and roads have caved.  They had no choice.  Will probably give it an hour or two and then investigate.

Still light snow up here in the valley of Frederick. Wintry, but I’m ready for those greens. Looks like it’ll be a few more hrs before the heavier returns make it up this way.

Alright, the first part has been cute, but I’m ready for the steadier/moderate.

In other news, the creek next to the Three Saws trailhead is flowing to the point that it’s basically not passable on foot unless you want to hop logs, which I wasn’t feelin’. Think a trip to Baker Park is in the cards later.

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Hell of a lot of snow coming up from the west southwest. It's high time they upped totals. NWS should issue outright Winter Storm Warnings. Fvck the models, use your EYES, nws for krise sake! Mid Atlantic is about to get pummeled by serious snow rates!

Coastal transfers, though.  That's probably the only glitch that bring down totals.  We'll see.  Temps are there...and that's the most difficult obstacle around here.