Mailman

18z HRRR looks good after wave 1.

Oh boy.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A series of shortwaves withing SW flow will increase wintry precipitation
chances Monday into Tuesday as the longwave central U.S. trough axis
shifts slightly eastward. At the sfc, a low will develop and deepen 
as it moves from the Mississippi Delta towards the northeast U.S., 
with cold air filtering into the region Tuesday as it moves farther 
east of the Upper Ohio River Valley. 

Confidence remains high in accumulating snowfall for much of the 
region and the second wave late Monday into Tuesday being the more 
significant punch. The combination of colder air, strong 
frontogenetic forcing and jet support will help produce potentially 
heavy snow around and to the north/west of Pittsburgh, a Winter 
Storm Watch was issued. Additional headlines are likely for the rest 
of the region as confidence increases in the timing and the type of 
impacts expected.

That said, granular details for each wave remain inconsistent between
models and from run to run for both incoming waves. Among the varying
details through the event include positioning of a mid-level 
frontogenetic zone; strength of ascent and associated connections to
a briefly coupled jet; strength and shifting of a baroclinic zone 
southeast of Pittsburgh leading to more of a wintry mix or freezing 
rain; efficiency of freezing rain accumulation; and potential dry 
slotting within the SW flow reducing accumulation efficiency. 

Increasing sfc high pressure and shortwave ridging will develop in
the wake of the exiting shortwave/low Tuesday night, with single
digit temperature likely for most locations.

Canadian appears solid.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The sw flow over the Upper OH is forecast to continue next week with
a series of crossing shortwaves within flow defining precip chances,
the most significant indicated for Tuesday. With plentiful boundary 
layer moisture evident in relatively warmer swly flow, ascent 
provided from a northern stream open wave, assisted by coupled jet 
and coincident near sfc frontogenesis will prime the region with the 
ingredients necessary for a widespread precipitation event on 
Tuesday. 

While longer range solution output varies in terms of snow 
accumulations (GFS vs. ECMWF), a couple of considerations should be 
noted. The first is that both models indicate the location of the 
mid-level low west and north of the forecast area. With the region 
located within the warm sector, this would imply the potential for a 
wintry mix across portions of the region (especially south of I-80) 
as warm advection hinders overall snow growth efficiency and 
introduces other hazards such as sleet/freezing rain. GEFS plumes for
PIT hint at this hindrance as the operational GFS snow accumulation 
output is much higher than majority of other members. Other 
considerations include the anticipated quick progression of the storm
which implies a rather progressive, open wave in conjunction with 
anticipated dry slotting. This translates to precipitation 
diminishing rather rapidly later Tuesday. Nonetheless, hazardous 
wintry weather should be anticipated, especially early Tuesday, and 
headlines may be required. This will bear watching through the course
of the weekend with more updates to follow.

GFS puts me back into a nice amount of the white stuff.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The southwest flow ovr the Upr OH is forecast to continue next week
with shortwaves within flow defining precip chc, the most 
significant indicated for Tuesday. Current depictions are for the mid
level low to dig toward the Great Lakes, thus limiting snow and 
overall precip potential via warm advection and dry slotting. Still, 
mixed precipitation including freezing rain is expected with such a 
scenario, development which will have to be monitored.

GFS right where we want it 5 days out.

GFS did come a little east.

It has begun.

Canadian looks alright for next week.  

0z GFS seems as though it's gonna deliver the goods again.

GFS coming in hot D6.

A little over 2" here.

Coming down good here, as well.

Yeah.. it's been a pretty good winter so far, in my opinion.  I could understand the negativity if we were shut out.  Active pattern for the next couple weeks.