Mailman

Well.. at least the NAM lost the historic freezing rain scenario.  Now it's a historic dry slot.  lol.

Dang.

Double-digits, here we come!

Can't say I hold a lot of faith in the CMC; however, it has been consistent with those big totals. 12z might be the biggest yet.

Massive freezing rain event on the NAM.

Personally, I am rooting for the 18z RGEM solution to verify.

Canadian is a winner.

Seems like GFS has held serve.

Fries went to Buffalo to be warning coordinator.

GFS looks good.

18z GFS ended up okay. Got rid of that Mon River screwzone that showed up at 12z. 

Jan '94 mixed in Morgantown, but not in PA, right?

18z GFS seems promising so far, I think.

Euro getting close.

Talk about a weenie run.  Last frame has a banger, too.  

3" here.

Been in some decent banding down here for the last hour or so.

I remember that one.  That storm was a good one. 

I like clippers.  They always seem to overperform here.

GFS is disappointing.

Mesoscale Discussion 1882
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212356Z - 220200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to
   persist for a couple more hours before storms weaken and the severe
   threat gradually diminishes. Given the expected short duration
   tornado threat, a Tornado Watch issuance remains unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells continue to
   exhibit instances of strong low-level rotation, from Butler County
   PA to Ohio County WV. Multiple TDS signatures were noted with some
   of these storms in the past few minutes via KPBZ dual-polarimetric
   radar data. These storms continue to rotate within an environment
   characterized by weak buoyancy (MLCAPE barely reaching 500 J/kg
   MLCAPE), but with strong low-level shear. Specifically, PBZ VAD
   profiler data have shown consistent elongated hodographs with 200+
   0-1km SRH, with METAR observations also showing some localized
   backing of the surface winds across southwest PA. As such, storm
   organization and periods of low-level rotation/brief tornadoes will
   likely continue for a couple more hours, before boundary-layer
   stabilization results in a gradual waning of the severe threat. A
   Tornado Watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Dial.. 10/21/2021

I am really looking forward to the Ida remnants making its way up here.