CIK62

COME BACK WHEN YOU GROW UP STORM------ First mentioned a possible Biggie on Aug. 27 due here, say Sept. 14. I guess this baby with a different etiology, will have to do. LOL At any rate, it looks like that Mid-West front will kick it away, under setup shown. Let's see how long this holds up as a threat.

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 8.5degs. AN. Make it +3.5. GFS lost all rains till next weekend. EURO is the wet one---Wed. thru Sunday. 69*(52%RH) here at 6am., m. clear.

But even the "I Forgot to Take My Meds Today---GFS" is only showing near 90 around this time and goes BN by Sept.17-----which I suspect may be lower than indicated, with its + Bias.

The next 8 days are averaging 79.5degs., or 8.5degs. AN. Make it 3.5degs. The tropical threats are seemingly nil for the next 15 days with multiple Fish or Fishy systems. The strongest development never makes it past 45^ W att. It starts in a nice spot like 12^N---but is westwardly challenged anyway. Earliest meaningful EC hit now say Sept. 25? 71*(95%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 79*(72%RH) by Noon. 86*(45%RH) by 4pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 79.5degs., or 8degs. AN. Make it 3degs. AN. 75*(88%RH) at 6am, thin overcast, breaks. 81*(51%RH) by Noon. 86*(50%RH) by 3pm.

The T's for the GFS OP which I am getting from the WB site, are too high at least around this part of the earth and during the summer----maybe all the time. Even worse would be an unpredictable magnitude and directional error that varied by location and time of the year! lol. In the last two years it has indicated more 100-Degree Days would occur than 100-Degree Days in the City's history (about 60 in 151 years). There were none, other than a lone 100 at LGA last year. Last year it had the nerve to show 5 straight 100-Degree Days with two of them breaking the All-Time High of 106-----a 107 then 108 the next day!!! It has shown 16-day stretches that would average +12 or better if correct----etc. Now that members have asked, I am simply removing 5 degrees on these 8-day estimates, which include the current day. So I assume when it shows Normal for the next 8 days-----this could turn out to mean -5!

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 7.5 degs. AN. Or just 2.5degs. AN, if you do not trust the GFS. Small tropical system near 36N 69W? Rainout next week back after L.D. on the GFS. 72*(93%RH) here at 6am, mean dark clouds, streets wet, drizzle. Got to 81* by 3pm with a little bit of weak sun. 76* by 6pm.

Ad-Free Secondary Group 3,219 posts Location:ConeyIsland Report post Posted 2 hours ago JB is kind enough to present what should have been last winter's forecast as this winter's Outlook: +3 around here. Actually last winter was probably +4.

August ended at +1.7[76.9]. The first 8 days of September are averaging 77degs., or 5degs. AN. Or if you prefer, just Normal. Holiday Weekend OK except for Labor Day itself. lol. Sept. 8 ---14 still looks real wet. 68*(94%RH), overcast, streets wet. 80*(72%RH) by 3:30pm with more sun than predicted the last 90mins.

The first 10 days of September are averaging 76.5degs., or 5degs. AN. Feel free to subtract 5 degrees from this GFS average, and just call the first 10 days Normal. Sept. 08---14 seems real wet. September/October appear trendless. We start off at 5820m on the 500mb heights and maybe the upcoming week looks AN. The only other deviating week would be: Week 3 of October, which is BN. The 5820m at that time is down to Cuba.

59 years ago today, we were home watching a blizzard wipe out the mid-Atlantic and the City*. Anyone here remember if Public Schools were open on that Monday? Mayor Wagner had them opened for Hurricane Donna, exactly three months earlier, and during the Jan. 1964 Blizzard, but closed the next day. *This immediately reminds us of the sad sight of Stephen Baltz, the temporary sole survivor of the Dec. 16 mid-air collision over SI, lying in a pile of melting snow from this storm at Sterling Place/7th. Avenue.

First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation.

I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986. This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry. Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off. A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind. But it was 98* a few days later. July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time. A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings. Meanwhile JB has begun to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing.

SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted.

Right. CMC gives us 8". GFS is zippo.

Thanks for the summary graphics. That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right. LOL! The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2. Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.