hawkeye_wx

This is pretty frustrating.  People from Lincoln to Des Moines to Chicago are posting about big flakes and heavy rates while I haven't seen a flake since mid afternoon.

Cedar Rapids kinda ended up in a precip hole this afternoon/evening.  Locations both well east and well west are doing better.

7 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

Suprisingly, those heavier echoes Here in the QC are producing sleet & snow. I figured we would be Frz. rain to start for sure. 

Far east-central IA into nw Illinois may be among the big winners.

12z Euro

12z UK

One thing about the Kuchera euro snow map.  It has 10 inches in Cedar Rapids.  However, the actual precip is only 0.60".  We would need a pretty high ratio to reach 10 inches.  If we do get 0.60" precip, I'd be more comfortable guessing 6-8 inches of snow.

The track is just fine now.  I wouldn't mind if the strength ramped up a bit more.

00z UK is pretty far south.  The low track is Quincy to Chicago.

00z FV3 is considerably slower than the 00z, but it's actually barely farther south.  Cedar Rapids still gets into the mix.

Yeah, the GFS went from rain, changing to a bit of sloppy snow for Cedar Rapids, to now clobbering Cedar Rapids with 6-10".

GFS trend at H5.  All the models appear to be doing this.

Obviously, the 18z Euro and the first evening model runs have the eastern Iowa members excited.

The Cedar Rapids airport has dropped below zero two or three times now, but the stations here in the city have not.

All the globals are cutting it right through Iowa.  It looks pretty good for areas along the MN/IA border that just got nailed by the northern band of the last storm.

As always, when there is wind I struggle to get a good measurement.  I'm going with 4.5".

It appears the wind destroyed the ratio(the blowing snow really compacts).  Despite the wind, my gauge still caught 0.53", which suggests even more than that fell.  However, even the 3.1" on my snow board melted down to 0.48", a terrible 6.5 to 1 ratio.  I know we got more than 3.1".  The reports from in and around Cedar Rapids range from about 4.5 to 6", so I'm going with the low end of that.  I always end up with the low end of the range where there is wind.

Much of the Des Moines warning area crapped out, only receiving 0-2".  The MN/IA border area was the winner.

I measured only 2.2" just before 10pm.  With the decent snow(we never got heavy rates) nearly done, I'm guessing 4" is the most I'll be able to measure in the morning, the very bottom of the possible range.  Locals were thinking 6-8".  Model qpf with decent ratios suggested more as well.  This has been a disappointment.

12z UK

The NAMs now have Cedar Rapids on the nw edge of the southern band.  The heaviest snow may veer more to Cyclone's yard.  Any additional veering could drop CR's total.

00z UK

The central/western Iowa warning area may be in jeopardy.  All of this evening's models look like this.  The northern band is about the same, but the more positively tilted/quicker system is leading to a more eastward-veering southern band.

12z euro ... updated to show only snow precip

00z UK

The 18z NAM is great for my area, but I'd have to see that from other models before getting excited.  Today's euro has much less qpf across the state.

Most models are now showing the dry moat through central Iowa.  An initial band of snow streaks across northern Iowa, then the main system organizes well south.

I had been saying how Iowa needed the PV lobe to back off, but maybe it's a case of 'be careful what you wish for'.  The PV is backoff off, but the main energy is digging even farther south.

The 12z FV3 has slowed the PV lobe noticeably compared to the 00z run, allowing the main energy to amp up a little more... definitely an improvement.

The euro is at least flat and weak with that lead wave compared to the GFS.

11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

UKMET gives the southern stream wave a lot more room to breathe with PV lobe much less suppressive

I was just going to post that.  The UK doesn't appear to have that PV lobe crashing southeast through the lakes on Saturday.  Iowa needs that lobe to back off as much as possible.  Otherwise, that nice energy moving in from the plains is going to dive southeast and leave us with only modest snow from an initial lobe of energy that shoots out of NE/SD.  Tonight's UK actually has that initial lobe of snow passing through southern MN.