Met1985

Some very impressive storms last night and this morning.

Strong storms moving through. Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Madison NC- 1014 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD...NORTHERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EST... At 1014 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Marshall to 16 miles southeast of Newport. Movement was east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

This is interesting. Model data continues to struggle with extended range cold fronts. Week 1 GWHDDs running 25+ points colder than forecast for the next 7 days this time last week. Operational data has performed slightly better. This might be a case where the "colder" GFS has some merit for week 2. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Not bad. Im going to wait until tomorrow to really dive into this thing and see where this goes. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Possible wind chills Tuesday morning. Exceptional! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

From Ryan Maue Just exclaimed to an esteemed colleague how gobsmacking it was to see -40°C contour at 500 mb over Indiana on November 10th -- so unlikely to be nearly impossible in 2025 let alone 175-years ago in 1850. Historic cold -- we get to experience the pre-industrial climate in 2025! This is extremely impressive. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Maybe an SSW but in general I like seeing the PV in a weakened state. We really don't need an SSW for blocking. Keep the PV weak and we will get our chances. This would lead us into December. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Glad this weather is in it's way out. Low of 36 and a high of 73.

Things look to get real interesting the end of the weekend around here. Will make a longer post this evening. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

31 and frosty this morning!

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has reached a new record weekly negative value at -1.94ºC. A negative dipole reduces convection across the west Indian Ocean and enhances it across the east. This can favour more blocked weather patterns. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The GFS and Euro drop the hammer next weekend. A week away but pretty good agreement. Would definitely bring upslope snow to the area. Something to watch. Until then enjoy this beautiful week.

A little lesson from last year especially with the CANSIPS. The first picture was the modeled temperatures for last January. The second picture is the actual temps we had in January. The third picture is the modeled temps for January 2026. Now this can go either way but I don't put much stock in these long range predictions anymore. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

This is what the extended Euro ens is spitting out for December starting at the end of this month. There are several signs that this may come to fruition with the mjo plots moving into favorable forcing and the PV weakening towards the second half of November. When I analyze the broader, reoccurring pattern, the signals are clear — a –EPO / +PNA/-NAO/-AO setup tries to re-establish by mid to late month. This combination supports a stronger ridge in the West and a deepening trough across the East, allowing colder air to funnel south from Canada. I am a bit skeptical because the Euro monthly and weeklies kind of burnt me last year. They did well for January but crapped out elsewhere along the season. Ill have more right ups a bit later on a modern day record IOD that will affect this winter as well. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

A lot of stuff coming out about the pattern recently. Currently looking decent well cautiously decent at this range lol.