NorEastermass128

51 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Another SECS in the southern region before anything falls in SNE and this place would become unreadable.

Tempers will flare if anything like the 6z GFS verified.  Cutter-BM Rainer-Suppressed-Cutter. Pretty horrible. Horrible begets horrible. We’re in a rut. 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Ray will flip his lid when he sees this thread.

Haha I thought about that and wondered if I should wait and then thought nah

DISCLAIMER:  I’m starting this thread early just to chronicle our frustrations in a winter that finds new ways NOT to snow.  Hopefully in a month or so, we can look back at this thread and laugh at how unnecessary/ridiculous it was in the first place.  For now, we watch...

BOS sits at 0.2” going into January. Pattern looks bleak for snow through 1/15-1/20.

We should break our streak of bad luck later in January with a more favorable pattern...hopefully making this thread obsolete. If for some reason the back half of this winter throws us a curve and peters out before getting started, we can root for futility in this thread. 

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but futility in BOS is under 10”. Something like 9.6”. Hopefully we exceed that figure by 5x or more. Time will tell. 

We can come back to this thread as needed. Hopefully not. Here’s to a 14/15 comeback!

I’m willing to bet that BOS fails to record 1” by 1/15. I start rooting for futility by 2/1 if BOS is < 5” with a bleak outlook. 

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

RGEM?  Just looked-warmer.

Of course. Hoping at least ORH can score a couple before the flip. Let’s break this streak of bad luck. 

Just now, dryslot said:

12z Ukie

Sheesh. If that cuts, maybe we can get another DSD out of it at least. 

Just now, Greg said:

Just looked at all the models on Tidbits.  I like what I'm seeing with the lows staying off shore.  That's really good! However like the CMC model it has a slight warm bias, I've seen this with is track. I'm actually more afraid of a graze than a storm center riding up through the far south shore, Cape Cod area.  The Euro will be interesting to say the least come 1:00 PM.  

Dude...if it’s all southern stream and no northern stream, we can have a perfect BM track...still going to be rain outside of the mountains. 

I wonder whether it will be a 37F rain or 48F rain. #coastalSNEproblems

TTGW

We like. 

This looks like it needs to thread the needle for SNE to avoid more rain.  Nothing really stopping this from hugging the coast or even tracking right overhead.  I’ll even pass on a few inches of snow that gets washed away. Ski areas should get a nice replenishment.  Hey, at least it’s something to track. Reading posts that the EPS went meh for post 1/7 is a bit disheartening though. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not that far fetched, guys... Folks may be too ingrained in the arts of pattern loathing to see matters otherwise, but...  the idea of "anomalies happening at any given time" is still very much a part of reality.  Getting one to happen?  Okay, but it may only seem impossible in a Stockholm hostage situation

Yesterday I remarked that pushing that Euro system through the deep south was less likely, ...while today ...it does lift it more curvi-linear around the NW arc of the ridge ... That trajectory might allow it to maintain more cohesion - otherwise it would/should have lost it in the height compression and absorbed.

The GFS was doing that according to theoretics rather nicely ... in fact still is... too well? It could also be too prodigious in doing so, which means its attenuation is prematurely ... possibly as a physical species too ... because the GEFs members individually both have and have no identity of that system. Since the Euro, GGEM and the GFS' own parallel run ... all have a coherent entity in the flow capable of inducing a swatch of synoptic usual suspects. I'd say keep and I on that.

Systems of this nature fit in between the supersynoptic scaled index variances and are not very well seen using more common tools.

In other words, you’re saying there’s a chance. 

7 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Well, if the euro moves in that direction overnight it'll definitely pique a lot of interest here. 

Ain’t happening James. 

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

EPS splits PV into other side of globe and northern Europe as I have predicted since the SSW showed up on models in November.  Huge risks with this as we can go pac fast gradient flow all of January with the PV over Siberia with another piece over Northern Europe.  

Was it it you that mistook Siberia for Europe last week?  

Let’s do this. From futility to epicocity. 

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Same here. I’ve had enough DC/southern winters that every flake is a gift...as long as I’m not getting sucker-holed in an event.

Same. I’m still shook from my one non winter in DC. 

You can already start to see on the OP runs how things could turn good later in January. Likely no more running in summer clothes. 

Third Saturday in a row of running in shorts and a tee. Bluebird day and was quite toasty in the direct sun. Winter on....

Heck, I’d be happy with 2-4 at this point. 

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

At least one would be close enough to whip it out...even if she grabbed her belongings and ran away.

Mish Michaels just signed off. 

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Tip references cmc and icon an awful lot for a seasoned veteran. 

He mentions those when it rubs salt in our wounds...he's a great met.  Just need to understand his sense of humor.

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm smelling something.....

 

 

Yup...starting to get that feeling. Waiting for the first inch until mid Jan is tough. 

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Meh-in my running days the shorts cutoff was 40F

Same here. I should clarify the above, shorts AND tee. 

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you like cold rain running you are right

I’ll be running in shorts on Saturday morning and  NYD morning if the rain stops in time. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies look good. I’ll stick to post 1/7....maybe 1/10.

Running in shorts and tees a real possibility a few times before then. 

This thread is coming to a close. I fully expect meltdowns to be widespread leading up to the NYD cutter if what follows is MOTSOS. Myself included.