NorEastermass128

The 0z GFS looks pretty decent to me. 

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

C-3”? 

Looks like nothing really but light crap for late Monday nite /tues am on 12z models unless you can find me something .

i have zero faith currently in backside energy doing much Wednesday BUT I haven’t looked at things ,if the Atlantic traffic has slowed down and the models can bring this to day it will be A LOT more serious 

the best news so far is the mid range Models looking more promising , at mid month imo. That look is what I want to see stick bc Monday nite is going going gone like a Ortiz bomb

Maybe I’m wearing weenie goggles, but that 18z GFS depiction isn’t nearly bad as your post makes it out to be. Most models at 12z we’re an inch or two to the Pike and a few north of the Pike. 

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

As long as it’s not going toward the xmas eve event , which part 1 appears to be doing for sne

MLs look cold enough for most of SNE to see some snow C-3” for part 1. In fact, the MLs don’t go above 0C until most of the precip exits on the GFS.  Unsure about the BL. Probably torchy with lighter rates. I bet ASH scores a couple. 

We're beginning to salivate over here....and Ray is just sitting over there nodding his head.  All starting to come together.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is starting to focus more on the backside energy....it still has the WAA pulse, but it is getting weaker each run seemingly. The western ridge has shifted quite a bit west too by 108h vs 120h on the 00z run.

Verbatim, the WAA pulse is like 1-2" for pike and a bit more for NNE...a little less down in CT.

Hmm...maybe the WAA turns into a C-2" appetizer followed by the little critter that bites for someone in NE a day or so later.  

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...had the same thought.  Let’s see if his more sober cousin concurs.

How are the MEX numbers looking?

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The dude just doesn’t get it. Let him go . Couple south of 90 to ice and a few north of 90. Anyone here should be excited 

Agree 100%

I think some are letting the past dictate the future.  The seasonal trend is for marginal events to trend worse in the final hours leading up to the event.  Maybe that's why some people's expectations are skewed toward nonevent.  

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is def stronger than Xmas Eve...but that isn't saying much. I wouldnt even throw accums out there right now since it is still 4 days out. Most guidance has prob 2-4 N of pike and 1-2 south.

That's a blockbuster event for this winter.  Hopefully it stays the course or trends meatier.  

12z GFS spits out a couple inches for most early next week...that's a win in my book this winter.  

I think we should also make separate threads for this weekend's event and next week's.  It's getting a little confusing when following along in this general discussion thread.

18z GFS is tasty for Tuesday. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Omg am I glad you said that!

Jesus ...  I mean I've been wanting to for days but ...it seems this group (if perhaps justifiably so...) is approaching inconsolable...  I was thinking exactly the same thing that even a modulation off that EPS would probably be bigger than people think...

Although that may be a little different but still ...it's also landing on climo like you said. 

then... don't look now but SSW may enter yet... and...  MJO aside, the climo of weak warm ENSO tends to favor after Jan 10 too... 
There's a lot of convergent indicators going on here, but they may not be showing in the physical presentation (or may...haven't cleaved open an ICON solution just yet...) but it seems it's hard to convey this shit when there's a dearth of focus on an actual chart.  

If we caught a few breaks in DEC with some minor/moderate events, this board wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the rest of the winter.  We're in a funk.  Reason doesn't always pair well with funks.  Objectively, looking at what you listed above, we 'should' be ready for a big turnaround.  

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro making a nice step back in right direction. I'm honestly surprised there isn't a bit better sfc reflection southeast with all that PVA into the Delmarva. But frigid high and some front end snow with likely wedged interior. 

We'll take it!  

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Well metfan lives in NYC. It sucks for there on Tuesday. We do okay. 

Gotchya.  I'll take any accumulating early next week to break the ice...spirits will lift substantially if we get a few to several, followed by a better looking LR.

Wait, I thought the 12z GFS looked good for Tuesday...does it fall apart in the LR?

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is dogcrap for day 5. Ugh. 

And for the 12th. 

I count three rainers on the 0z EURO for SNE. PF cashes in. 

Lots of rainers on the 18z GFS...just saying. 

Been out of the loop today, can someone give the quick and dirty?  Mostly rain tonight, rain Saturday, DSD Sunday, more mostly rain for SNE on Tuesday?  

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

“Those lines are uneven. Get off my lawn hater!” -DJT

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup

that's what I mean by 'there it is'

It's definitely early ... but, ironically we were just talkin' 'bout that earlier, how things my change rather soon.  we'll see...

I thought “there it is” meant Baroclinic Zone in Taunton melted.  Haha

January 1. Sitting on a bench post run in shorts and a tee. Sweating in the warm sun. We struggle to get days like this here on the coast in mid June FFS!  

Another sunny DSD. Not a Saturday, but I’ll take it on this holiday. 

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

   O/U

ORH   54 —over (57)

BOS 39 — under (23)

PVD 34 —under (32)

BDL 41– under (35)

 

December officially skunked.  0.0" here for the month.  First 2-3 weeks of January looking unremarkable too.  We rat.

Hmmm...my futility thread may get some action after all. 

48 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Lol, so this is the NE equivalent of the MA Panic Room? Should be entertaining. I keep reminding myself that many the best winter months of my life were preceded by garbage patterns and much wringing of hands/pulling out of hair. I expect by February this thread will be forgotten at the bottom of the page and we will be singing a much different tune.

Responding to your last sentence...…..that's the hope.