NoDoppler4TnySandz

Pleased to report that we have a "scattering" of grapel that has spread across the grass and elevated deck. Encouraged by the energy upstream which could pivot towards the donut hole of the region and lay down a 1/2 inch later today into the evening hours!

I think it's a combination of factors...warm weekend, early season, waiting for it to wagons west...rainy slop I checked out for 24 hours and just took look at the NAM....looks alot like the Euro 00z....this is a big Euro run coming up (fingers crossed)

9AM Forecast Discussion - ILN LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clearly the feature(s) and time period of interest during this portion of the forecast will be the potential phasing of a southern stream shortwave trough with a more progressive/dynamic northern stream shortwave trough in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, which could lead to rapidly deepening/occluding low pressure tracking from the southern Gulf Coast up the west side of the Appalachians. This would bring a potential of cold sector precipitation /possibly the first widespread accumulating snow of the winter/ and gusty winds. Outlier /low probability/ solutions indicate that significant accumulating snow could occur, but would take near ideal phasing for such an event to occur. What we feel somewhat confident in saying - is that ensembles means have trended toward a wetter and colder overall solution for Mon/Tue, so the chances of the first widespread accumulating snow have risen over the last 24 hours. But overall probabilities of the very heavy amounts seen in some recent deterministic runs of a few models remain quite low - but something that has to be accounted for. We will need to watch this closely as even a more conservative snowfall forecast will bring travel impacts most likely Monday night into Tuesday morning - but areas / amounts are still way too early say with any measure of confidence. Pre-storm mild temps - a key point about the quiet weather Saturday/Sunday we need to mention is mild temperatures. Plenty of sunshine both days should push temperatures well into the 40s on Saturday, and 50s on Sunday. Cirrus thickens Sunday afternoon, and mid clouds thicken Sunday night. The mild days Sat/Sun and clouds Sunday night will keep soils/pavements quite warm, so snowfall will need to overcome this to accumulate efficiently. Phasing/low track -Timing of the potential phasing is key and extremely low confidence at this time range, but some degree of phasing is likely to occur between these systems - carving out a deep longwave trough/closed low over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. Potential solutions run the gamut - from a rapidly deepening low running from the Gulf Coast into western PA where it slows to a stop and pivots, to a much weaker/progressive low riding quickly through KY/WV/PA and into the northeast or off the Mid- Atlantic coast. The 26.00Z EPS and GEFS members /81 members in sum/ are all over the place with timing/track/precipitation coverage with the various degrees of phasing which could occur. Still waiting to see a clustering of surface low track/depth emerge from ensemble systems. As of right now, the 31 members of the 26.00Z GEFS valid at 18Z Monday have surface lows scattered over thousands of square miles from southeast Michigan, to upstate New York, to a number of lows even down in the Carolinas. Each of these a viable solution - and it is a representation of the sensitivity of phasing weather systems separated /right now/ by thousands of miles. The 26.00Z EPS/CMC ensembles also very similar - indicating surface low pressure track/depth is variable and very low confidence at this point in time. Keys to remember about some of the extreme snowfall amounts being seen on a few deterministic/ensemble members: 1) these static ratio amounts do not account for the very warm ground temperatures (remember Sunday`s temps in the 50s) 2) these do not take into account the degree of compaction that would occur with a long duration wet snow event that is leading to some of the very high totals 3) boundary layer temperatures will remain 30-35 during any snow that falls which means slower accumulation rates and more compaction especially during daylight hours and 4) this storm has no bitter arctic air in place or available to tap - unlike a very similar setup 70 years ago when the Snow Bowl storm produced in excess of 12-15" in the ILN CWA. That storm had surface temps in the single digits and teens. Also pointing against the extreme solutions is a very narrow dendritic growth zone - less than 100mb on forecast soundings. So we will need to watch ensembles closely in the next couple of days to see if a trend emerges on a number of fronts. Definitely a forecast to stay tuned to through the holiday weekend. After the system pulls out on Wednesday, cold temperatures remain with highs generally in the 30s.

Well, I guess the season is here....might as well start it off with a tease followed by a kick in the N@!S Good to have something to watch... Two things strike me so far: Like Stebo referenced: it definitely looks like it could stop and spin for a couple of days (consistent signal)...could be a N-S strip of jack-pot zone (Ohio/Ind border in general as of right now with W-E variance from Indy-CMH). I also could see this evolve like Schaumburg mentioned --- Stung Out POS Happy Turkey Day!

Reposting so I can update my reaction in this "winter of despair".... still raining down here but I am hopeful!

Can we wishcast and suggest it will follow the snowpack from the current system ....run south of the map above? Please? Need some help down here.....final call....1' + of rain

Even down here by the river...."Southtown" ...it's snowing!

Fluffy dusting down here this morning....should qualify as a trace...not sure if KCVG saw the same. LOL! Pattern has to flip at some point...Down here, Feb is our snowiest month. I can take that without the brutal cold that Jan can produce....... I know the lack of snow is frustrating...but at least it's not the cold is too strong and the storm tracks are south-- that's the worst.