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winterymix

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Everything posted by winterymix

  1. I'm fantasizing about displaying a thermometer at two meters and with some sort of sun shade. It would be interesting to record 2m temperatures during the event. I 'm reading that with favorable conditions, the 2m temp. can drop 15 to 20 degrees. I'm guessing dry soil, no clouds, no pollution, no wind shear will allow quick transfer of outgoing radiation starting about 40 minutes before second contact. I'm sure these stats will be gathered across the centerline and near center. Hopefully a lot of good temp logs will emerge. Can any-of-ya suggest a reasonably priced air thermometer I can buy before Friday, not the POC in Home Depot. Any tricks on a legit way to provide sunshade? Will the temps count if I do not have motorized ventilation? Thanks to the red taggers, keep those probabilistic forecast products coming.
  2. Jerry, I'm guessing the GFS 700 mb (rel humidity, omega, heights, winds) chart gives us a rough idea of cloud cover. For eclipse time, it seems that the Ozarks (MO/TN) area is under an area of stationary flow/August scattered showers. My hunch is "partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers". I'm guessing that verification is poor at 7-8 days but still the rough ideas are there. What do you think?
  3. Jerry, see you on July 2, 2019 — Total Solar Eclipse — La Serena, Chile
  4. nice link http://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/pdf/eclipse/eclipse_long_lead_DSS_LMK.pdf
  5. What is the verification score for a 200+ hour GFS cloud cover forecast? Flame proof anti trolling shield **on**
  6. Hey Randy:  nice body of work in AP.  You have been solid for 14 months, HRC vs.  Trump.

     

     

     

     

  7. I'm going to push the definition in this thread. For me, the best storm was February 14-17,1958. I was four years old and was in my Dad's car. He had to pull over and bail a few blocks from home because of the road conditions. I remember him having to carry me home. That got me interested in snow. BTW, a city plow smacked his car and the city had to pay to fix the body work.
  8. May 2013 at DCA is finalized at 66.7 degrees, the 45th warmest of all-time, vs last year's 71.4 degrees, the 3rd warmest. This year's meteorological spring (March, April, and May) at DCA is finalized at 56.5 degrees, the 43rd warmest. That compares with last year's record-breaking spring average of 62.2 degrees. The 5.7 degree decline from one spring to the next is the second greatest in DC history, topped only by the 5.8 degree decline between 1991's 60.0 degrees and 1992's 54.2 degrees. Portions of this May had a brisk feel on some days, some folks would say those days felt harsh. Some folks out for a stroll had winter clothes on. Nor meant to be a scientific comment, personally, I found those cool days to be refreshing. RodneyS.: These temperature swings you are documenting can be random noise or can be a signal of increased volatility. Too soon to say.
  9. We're having a drought of precip. Since Sandy, we are about 3 inches in the hole. January looks increasingly warm and dry. The dreaded Pacific zonal firehose.
  10. Wouldn't it be special if either BWI, DCA, or LWX set a record for the earliest 100 degree record in modern times this year? DCA and BWI, June 05, 1925.
  11. JoMo: You mentioned that your Ex had injuries and perhaps e-coli. I hope she isn't dealing with this horrific fungal outbreak. Good luck will all the challenges around you.
  12. This dude Jeff was living on the bleeding edge of peril. I can't imagine any chaser getting closer.
  13. Absolutely. For the 1100 +/- people injured or perished it was little more than innocently being in the wrong place at the wrong time. This is horribly quick and nearly random catastrophe.
  14. I just took another look at the Springfield WSO site. They have the obvious link to the survey for the tornado. If one looks off to the side, there is a menu item to "view a larger map". If one opens that up and further enlarges the image, it becomes quite obvious that the authors wanted to depict a large and significant continuous zone of F-5 forces. This is a rare and extreme catastrophe in the center of a small to mid-side city. Josh, if you look at the side menu for google maps, you will note that kilometers 4 through 7 all experienced winds > 200 moh. I know you want more exact wind speeds but it is up to the WSO to release that info.
  15. Hey JOMO: I'm glad you made it through the maelstrom. Regarding the second guessing, here is my question: It seems the Doppler Radar, warning system and sirens are reasonable; not perfect but far better than what we had 20 years ago. So...should there be underground shelters every couple of streets? It seems that some of the people had nowhere to go. Heck, you had only a closet!!! For the people in the most intense F5 zone, would an underground shelter with a six inch concrete slab or heavy steel storm door (covering an underground room) have saved them? What good does it do to give people a 20 minute warning if they have no basement in their home and no community storm shelter within a short walking distance?
  16. If the membership database captures full names, you guys can check for him on the Red Cross site. Worrisome vibrations, keep hope alive for the best.
  17. If anyone knows JOMO's particulars, they can start the search here: https://safeandwell....fesearch/search https://safeandwell.communityos.org/cms/index.php
  18. iphone panarama of destruction http://photoblog.msn...ado-devastation
  19. Trees de-barked and debris hurled 70+ miles will almost certainly get this monster an F=5. Big problem now is that with severe weather bearing down, the people in that area have few places to seek for shelter.
  20. Your posts during the 12/25-12/27 near miss for some and blizzard for others were appreciated by many here. You seem to have enthusiasm for skillfully done model briefings, independent thought and effective communication skills. Carry on.
  21. This is impressive and is a lesson for the young'ns here trying to jump start a career. The ability to impress the established leadership, not with Bravo Sierra, but with creative, energetic and productive mental horsepower and a hunger for lifetime learning trumps all. The World is populated with a great many talented people that have gone nowhere on their talent.
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