fyrfyter

We’ll just hope we actually get a winter this year and next, compared to last year at this time.

Knowing the OV that’s probably reasonable at this point.

We were supposed to get actual rain, around an inch. We got 0.03”. Some much for the dryness going away. I fully expect the leaves to turn brown and fall. No colors this year.

Now what would be the fun in that? How am I going to catch a cold wearing a coat?

I have a friend outside of Denver who literally closed his pool a few days ago because of the forecast. Earlier this week he was floating in it.

One lone house on stilts that still needed a years worth of repair after Ike... seems to prove my point.

Right because new growth pine, glulams, lvls, and OSB are clearly “quality” building materials.

New construction in Florida is the same crap built elsewhere with hurricane straps. What a joke. The Florida code is an ICC Code, just like the Ohio code and many others. Go read the residential part. It's the same spec for cheap junky wood.

New construction is garbage. How cheap can we build a house? It's cheaper for it to be destroyed and rebuild it than to build something that will last. Look around, all the new buildings are built with glue and lumber scraps. Nothing is designed to last anymore.

I thought about this as well. Just looking over the last few days, it seemed like 25-33% showed landfalls. That's a big problem considering any one of those ensemble runs could be correct. I think this is a lot of the reason why so many of the states are clearing out there coasts. There is way too much uncertainty on this one. The forecast seems to change with each model run. If it were minor changes, I think they would have been more conservative on evacuations. I heard at some point, one model spread was 70 miles in width.

I want to know which part of the weather models provided “ solid guidance” over the past week? Did it turn North and instantly weaken?

The main thread is becoming an argument on Darwin's law and Darwinism. And this is the banter thread... lol

Latest RS loop from KAMX says yes. Looks like it's moving a bit slower, but still drifting WSW.

That’s a perfect forecast... unless it turns towards Cuba...

KAMX radar on the loop looks like the Eye will pass towards the South of Freeport. I'm taking that as a bad sign.

Apparently since the 50s, this is decided at the end of the year after hurricane season is over as to reusing a name. Based upon things this today, I’d say this one will be retired.

And this surprises you how? People don’t want boring and mundane. What the news media does on top of this doesn’t help.

Yes. They will determine the appropriateness of reusing names after everything is over.

Looking at the solar cycles and the solar minimum for possibly 30 years, I’d say we are headed towards a cooler period rather than a warmer one.