* Confidence low late in the weekend into the middle of next week.
Could have a period of onshore flow and showers. Temperatures near
to below normal.
confidence in the forecast lower significantly after Saturday night.
Models have large differences with the shortwave that slide into the
central Great Lakes/eastern Great Lakes late on Saturday. The ECMWF
cuts off this feature and rotates it around the central/eastern
Great Lakes before it moves into the Mid Atlantic on Monday/Tuesday.
The GFS/GEM are much more progressive with this feature and lift it
out of the region early on Monday and build a ridge in behind it.
Hard at this point in time to say which is the correct solution, so
have kept with the NBM guidance. Does not look like any washouts at
this point in time, but have kept chances of showers during this
window. Will be more of a rainfall concern if the ECMWF/EPS solution
is correct, but hard to pin point where and when the greatest threat
is.
Temperatures trending near to slightly below normal during this time
frame.