Ander

Laughing at wral trying to spin it that they weren't totally wrong across the board. From crippling ice storm reporting until overnight last night to now still a second wave coming to it likely will be a wintry mix in that second wave to it will be windy tomorrow but there will be no freezing cold Armageddon Tuesday or Wednesday and instead it will approach forty and be sunny. It never fails living here.

Just took my doggo out for the last time tonight. Cars are glazed over in Durham.

Heavy sleet in Southpoint area of Durham.

Always love this aspect of America for whatever myriad reasons it happens. Hits me right in the feels.

Just took the dog for a last walk before this and it started pinging pretty good in Durham over by Southpoint about about 348.

A question on the NWS ice forecast. Is the ice accumulation freezing rain + sleet that freezes on the ground or just the freezing rain estimates? It seems that is a pretty big distinction for the amount of trees and powerlines coming down unless I am missing something. And yes I am much more of a lurker than poster because I am not a weather expert, so if its a dumb ass quote blame my New England roots. We do not really get ice storms like that up there.

I guess I am going to voice this, but increasingly I find all the weather stuff really not useful. I have lived in NC for 20 years now and this pattern just repeats over and over. Big hurricane, get prepped, we will get wrecked and...nothing. Same is true for winter storms. It just makes me frustrated because it basically teaches me not to take weather threats seriously. I am pretty well prepped in general, but based on this stuff I made some additional purchases because it seemed feasible we could be without power for a good week or more. I spent money on it, I took a lot of time to get it done, and now as we get closer it basically seems like it is either trending nothing burger to icemageddon. In my own field I am very cautious about making predictions because predicting human behavior can be very tricky to get right. I can offer some observations or past lessons or even a couple scenarios but I find it impossible to predict much over a time horizon. Yet in this it seems the more quant data we have the less certainty we get. The old line of garbage in and garbage out keeps coming to mind. Dont get me wrong, I love this site and being able to have a leg up but it feels like we are all getting taken for a ride storm after storm after storm no matter what type it is. What is driving this for me mostly is I have an immunocompromised wife and a special needs son. I feel the weight of needing to get this stuff right for my family, but I hate feeling fooled each time we go through the big storm process.

Curious about this for the triangle. I understand the snow and the freezing rain but what sleet translates into for freezing rain I don't quite get.

Almost always lurking because I do not have too much to add and no expertise in this area. This could be a storm that reminds me of a good ole New England NorEaster and I am hoping for that. We have managed to dodge most of the big ice totals since I moved here 20 years ago, and I am hoping for one more year of that.

Terribly sad about the flooding. My best friends brother, Bill Huston, is one of the missing people.

I grew up in Massachusetts and there were some legendary weathermen there. The only person I can think who had that stature down here was Greg Fishhel. Given the weather up there, some of these guys like Dick Albert became cultural icons across the region - "I should have listened to Dickie". There was this one guy though, Bruce Schwoegler who never quite reached that level but was still a good weather guy. He did acquire the nickname "The Forecasting Cowboy" as he would deviate from the models and guidance for big storms to tell you what he thought lol and boy he was wrong an awful lot.

First time level 3 in a while.

Elon university in alamance county just sent out an emergency alert of possible tornadoes sighted and to take shelter immediately.

As a weather noob, but political science and policy professional, I have some survey data (pandemic disrupted plans to publish) showing that the public does not get tired or ignore stuff when it turns out to be overhyped and wrong. We focused on hurricane warnings and preparedness and found warnings that did not live up to the hype failed to diminish peoples willingness to prepare for and believe future warnings.

Still pouring in Durham NC. No sign of snow yet.