wolfie09

Mean

We got ourselves a game..

Icon went SE once again fwiw

This games pretty much over already lol Bengals just can't stop their offense..

Deterministic guidance the past several runs (days) have been all over the board regarding the potential storm beginning Wednesday night through Thursday night time frame. Guidance Update... The 30/12Z run of the ECMWF has again trended further NW and is now more in line with the GFS and Canadian-NH. Would still like too see some run to run consistency but a somewhat more clearer picture is starting to evolve. Again...a lot will ride on the strength of the sfc high to our northwest and the eventual push of the 850 hPa thermal boundary (cold front) into and across the region. The next key will be where it stalls or sets up which will then provide a path for several waves of low pressure to track along. This boundary will also determine p-type and snowfall amounts...which could be significant depending on which side of the boundary you reside. Right now...its looking like an all snow event for all of our CWA. The question is just how much...too early to say at this point. Again...just want to hammer one "big" point home with this update. As was previously stated...guidance has been all over the board. Its only been the 30/12Z guidance that has been a little bit more consistent. Still lots of time for things to change but will start with adding this potential storm in the HWO. stay tuned!

HWO The potential exists for a long duration winter storm to impact the region Wednesday night into Friday. This system has the potential to bring significant accumulating snow. Details in forecast track and exact amounts are still emerging at this time. A more northern track could also bring the possibility of ice.

Wpc latest update, little bit SE.. Not much change.. Fwiw

We take

GDPS

Not much difference compared to yesterday...

Lol The Matt effect

He said 4"-8" is weak sauce not 2 feet lol

So what we are saying here is expect 2"-4" of overrunning precip over an 18 hour period and watch the south get pounded again? Lol Got it..On to next one..

Coming in Hot lol I'd rather the more amped solution even if I mix.

Looks like it goes over SE NY .

Uncertainty remains with system that impacts region Wednesday into Thursday. Cold front slowly eases into the region on Wednesday with a mix of rain/snow changing to mainly snow by Wednesday evening. Some snow accumulation is likely especially western NY to North Country late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Beyond this is where the uncertainty increases, just as higher PWATs and heavier QPF lifts in from the Gulf of Mexico. In a nutshell, ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles continue to trend colder and really more suppressed with the overall system with little if any chance of anything other than snow. Heaviest snow would be south and east of our area though. GFS and GFS ensemble members are farther northwest, but even this solution would not bring warmer slug of air aloft and resulting wintry mix (mainly sleet or freezing rain) back into the picture until later Thursday into Thursday night as stronger wave lifts along the primary frontal boundary. Main item to watch here is not really the sfc low, but rather the H85 low and warm tongue aloft which tracks more over western NY to the North Country before colder air comes crashing back in by Friday morning. Canadian operational is like the farther northwest GFS, but its ensembles are more in line with suppressed ECMWF idea. So again, a lot of uncertainty and expect the details with the forecast to continue to change as we work into early this week. Given the deep moisture that this system will have to work with, high impact winter weather, likely mainly from a snow standpoint, could occur. Some ice could occur as well though. So, stay tuned. For the forecast, generally kept the flavor of the previous forecast in terms of pops/weather, but leaning toward the ECMWF trend, kept a zone of wintry mix (snow, sleet and freezing rain) across Southern Tier to western Finger Lakes and removed the mention of plain rain out of the forecast anywhere in our area.

GFS is a weenie run, especially for WNY/NNY..

Still showing a fairly wet system..1"-2"+ LE..

Wpc