wolfie09

Just thought I leave this here so you guys can bitch about it lol Just appeard on the NWS winter weather page..I think roc is over 100" now?

Not that it really matters lol

Like on January 10th when both COOP had similar precipitation totals but 4" for Mexico and T for Pulaski lol

It's funny that the Mexico COOP came in with 50" of snow on the month with 3.16" of precipitation while pulaski COOP came in with 22" of snow on 3.08" of liquid lol I find that the Mexico COOP is always on the high end of the spectrum every event and vice versa for pulaski.. Oswego and Fulton fit somewhere in the middle...

According to the COOP from around the area, overnight lows rivaled that of Feb 2015.. Pulaski was at 1.8° for the month with 1 more day that will lower that number..Mexico COOP came in with an average low of 0.6°.. Lowville to Watertown came in at -2° to -4° for the month.. Obviously According to the COOPs lol

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more possible. * WHERE...All of western and north central New York. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Watches issued..

I think this was from this morning.. Note of caution though, the shortwave energy that eventually spins up this system is just dropping south of Gulf of Alaska and really does not make to the southwest CONUS until Wednesday morning. So, could be changes to forecasts up to that point and with not much time for the system to develop fully before impacting our area, *could* see changes in forecasts until right up til the system lifts across the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Just something to keep in mind.

Latest from Weather prediction center..

Rgem and 3k both looked solid at some point but both backed off as we got closer.. Most guidance didn't have much, forecast was 1"-2"..

Yeah BW, it was hit or miss, basically a "refresher"..I think nearest site had a little over an inch..

Mixing does make it up to northern onondaga county on the euro but still looks like a big hit..(Some sleet could be included)

Lol Definitely a little DS on the GFS...

Rates under the darker greens has to be at least 2"-3" per hour, flakes are like golf balls lol

N/W on the icon..

Getting some decent snow shower activity Imby, nice fluffy flakes..Not expecting it to last to much longer though...

Another good game this evening.. Looks like it will be Rams vs Bengals..

Basically an ensemble member.. Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied. The perturbed members (50 members) are similar to the CNTL but their initial states and model physics have been perturbed to explore the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model. They provide a range of possible future weather states. When averaged over many forecasts (although not necessarily for any particular forecast) these have lower skill than either the HRES or the CNTL. However they do provide an estimate of the forecast uncertainty or confidence.

Control run..

Thanks BW..That's the ensemble mean, euro only goes out to hr90.. Looks pretty far NW, would guess a bunch of mixers for CNY..

Bengals won haha

Bengals have maholmes shook..

Wow maholmes got lucky there lol Another OT game..