wolfie09

So far so good lol Very hazy here with a temp of 73°, not moving much yet, forecast high in the lower 80s..

We'll see how the next couple days at ksyr goes but winds flipped from W/SW to NW during the afternoon when temps started to drop..lol So it may of just been a coincidence lol

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What happened to the sizzle sizzle? Lol Dropped like 6° in an hour..

Dewpoints suck but that West/NW flow keeping it relatively cooler, maxed out earlier this afternoon at 77° as it stands now..

According to the Hrrr it should be 79° in the cuse right now, lower 80s early this afternoon.. Even without the extra"sizzle sizzle" the models still paint that area as the hottest locally lol

Potent shortwave trough and associated cold front will impact the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the incoming trough and especially with the cold front late Tuesday afternoon and evening. With PW values in the range of 1.5 to 1.7 inches some storms could produce tropical downpours with localized flooding becoming a concern considering antecedent conditions. With that said, guidance suggest that there will be some limited instability of +500 J/kg to work with and then 20/30 knots of 0-6km shear. So there could be an isolated severe storm or two, but the arrival time of the trough isn`t that favorable and sneaks in after peak heating. Tuesday night, chances for showers and storms linger as the front slowly drags itself across the Lower Lakes as we head into Wednesday. Cooler Wednesday behind the front, still could be some showers in the morning but progressively drier from west to east. H850T fall to +9/+11 over the course of the day which will support highs in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday night, sfc high pressure settles in over the region providing a cool and dry night. Good night to open the windows, lows anticipated in the 50s to low 60s with low humidity levels.

I myself wanna make it to double digits I need 1.31" over the next 13 days.. Several SW dropping out of Canada the next week..

We picked up 1.23" yesterday and 1.83" overnight, 3.06" total.. Nearing 9" on the month..

Continues to pour here at a rate of 1"-1.5" per hour, nearing 2.5" for the event, 8" on the month..

Radar starting to fill back in..

Some SR guidance want to redevelop some convection later this evening and rotate it through..3k does the same thing but farther west.. Around an inch so far..

That's pretty much all from 5pm on lol

.Heavy Rain Threat into Tonight... Several waves tracking northeast along a stalled frontal boundary will keep rain and scattered convection over the region into tonight. A saturated airmass in place for this winter-like synoptic set up will also allow for repeated downpours...particularly within any convection. Given the near saturated antecedent conditions...flooding issues will persist. "Drier" air in the mid levels moving in tonight should mitigate the risk for heavy rain over the western counties and in particular the Western Southern Tier. Regardless...steady rain still expected within the deformation zone of the last passing wave. In fact... could see over an inch and a half of rain from this for parts of Oswego and Lewis counties. A mid level low will pass over the region Sunday. While significantly lower rainfall amounts are anticipated...there will still be some showers. This will mainly be the case for sites east of the Genesee valley. Given colder air aloft (>15kft)...will carry a minimal (slgt) risk for afternoon thunderstorms.

Rain starting to pick up here..Hrrr showing 4"-5" this evening lol Doubt that.. Euro has all that stuff to the SW swinging through this evening..

We got off to a slow start here, only nearing a 1/2" but still plenty of moisture streaming from the SW.. Starting to fill in..

Euro wants to keep showers around all day tomorrow as well..

Getting into some decent action as I await the main batch of precipitation..1/3" so far..

Must be winter

Game could see a few showers but I think it's the stuff in Indiana/Illinois that may prove problematic..

Why has Upstate NY been so rainy? And when will it stop? https://www.syracuse.com/weather/2021/07/why-has-upstate-ny-been-so-rainy-and-when-will-it-stop.html?outputType=amp

NWS still not confident enough to raise pops..