Rtd208

Overnight low of 28 here. Current temp 31

Current temp is 30 here. Cold for early April.

Current temp is 30 here. Cold for early April.

Picked up 0.27" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 45

Picked up 0.27" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 45

Picked up 0.27" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 45

AccuWeather's 2021 Hurricane Outlook. https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/924431?utm_campaign=AccuWeather&utm_content=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1KE-6pzRVCGemMts9kBZJfLnT2bLb5H0X8UPEmcgZk2WEGBjwcT5tDb2A

Picked up 0.42" of rain for the day Current temp 55

Picked up 0.42" of rain for the day Current temp 55

Picked up 0.42" of rain for the day Current temp 55

Picked up 0.27" of rain so far today. Current temp 54

Picked up 0.27" of rain so far today.

Picked up 0.27" of rain so far today. Current temp 54

Interesting Mt. Holly discussion for the mid/late week system. An impactful system is expected to move through the region on Wednesday and Thursday, with much colder and breezy conditions expected to close the week. Deterministic model solutions have noticeably converged regarding the Wednesday/Thursday system evolution. However, critical differences remain, particularly with the track of the developing wave of low pressure along the advancing front in the southeastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The 00z ECMWF and CMC remain noticeably slower with the advancing trough and continue to be preferred owing to the developing high-amplitude ridging downstream. The 00z GFS has trended closer to the tracks of the ECMWF/CMC with tonight`s output, increasing confidence somewhat. Nevertheless, the GFS continues to be more progressive and drier with the precipitation from the system during this period, an important caveat to the discussion below. As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high- amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this closely as the event approaches. In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday morning. (Much heavier snow may occur to our north/northwest, notably.) Will be monitoring this potential as well in the coming days.

Interesting Mt. Holly discussion for the mid/late week system. An impactful system is expected to move through the region on Wednesday and Thursday, with much colder and breezy conditions expected to close the week. Deterministic model solutions have noticeably converged regarding the Wednesday/Thursday system evolution. However, critical differences remain, particularly with the track of the developing wave of low pressure along the advancing front in the southeastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The 00z ECMWF and CMC remain noticeably slower with the advancing trough and continue to be preferred owing to the developing high-amplitude ridging downstream. The 00z GFS has trended closer to the tracks of the ECMWF/CMC with tonight`s output, increasing confidence somewhat. Nevertheless, the GFS continues to be more progressive and drier with the precipitation from the system during this period, an important caveat to the discussion below. As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high- amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this closely as the event approaches. In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday morning. (Much heavier snow may occur to our north/northwest, notably.) Will be monitoring this potential as well in the coming days.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Current temp is 70 here.

Current temp is 70 here.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

High for the day yesterday was 83 here. It looks like a nice day shaping up today. Current temp 58

High for the day yesterday was 83 here. It looks like a nice day shaping up today. Current temp 58

Current temp is 81/DP 61