Amped

Parents in Westport are without power and had a tree hit the porch.  Looks pretty bad there, 94% without power, and trees blocking most roads . Local representative saying it's the hardest hit in the state.   Also, there is possible tornado damage in the spot where the warned cell came ashore.

https://www.ctpost.com/local/article/More-than-94-of-Westport-without-power-15459239.php

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even a hurricane Bob like 100-150 miles west would be ridiculous. 

Always wonder what kind of damage Hazel did in NY, NJ and CT.  There was a 100mph + gust at battery park.  I can't find any descriptions of the damage without digging up archived local newspapers from the time.

59 minutes ago, tim said:

...not too much tree damage out this way..but the lack of rain we got out here

is pretty amazing..KFOK reported only 0.05 inches of rain and with a dry forecast coming

the next few days its really going to be dry...maybe a repeat of the "sunrise highway fires"

during the summer of '95..hope not.

I was in Pittsburgh for Hurricane Ike.  Similar winds without a drop of rain.

And here's the slow motion.   You can see the blast wave creating debris and sends it flying outward.   Then the rising air plume starts sucking debris back inward..

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Close.  It was Sodium Nitrate

Seeing reports that both Sodium and Ammonium nitrate were stored there.   Sodium nitrate isn't explosive on it's own and would not have reacted with another chemical fast enough to cause something that big. Ammonium nitrate is the more likely suspect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammonium_nitrate_disasters

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That feeder band jumped over most of us-far eastern LI may get into it....

It's coming for LI and SW CT. Just starting to pivot back. 

Looks like winds are funneling into the NYC bite on that HRRX map.   If correct, winds will be higher there than SNJ .

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Between 10 and 11A... 50kt plus as below...borrowed from MOE-FSU- Dr Bob Hart website developer. 

KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [54kt, 28m/s]

KDOV: Dover AFB, DE, United States [52kt, 27m/s]

KGED: Georgetown, Sussex County Airport, DE, United States [50kt, 26m/s]

KLFI: Langley AFB, VA, United States [51kt, 26m/s]

KMFV: Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA, United States [52kt, 27m/s]

KNGU: Norfolk, Naval Air Stn, VA, United States [52kt, 27m/s]

KNHK: Patuxent River, Naval Air Stn, MD, United States [50kt, 26m/s]

KNTU: Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Stn, VA, United States [58kt, 30m/s]

KORF: Norfolk, Norfolk Intl Arpt, VA, United States [53kt, 27m/s]

KOXB: Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD, United States [50kt, 26m/s]

KSBY: Salisbury, MD, United States [53kt, 27m/s]

KWAL: Wallops Island, VA, United States [59kt, 30m/s]

KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [51kt, 26m/s]

KWWD: Wildwood, NJ, United States [54kt, 28m/s]

Poser outages  continue to expand north...as of 1103A...here is your customer count.  On average 2.5x thats value for number of people without power. Only 0.71" so far in Wantage.    1116A/4

 

Unlikely that weakens until it gets past central CT.

Parts of the Philly region have had over 10" of rain this week.  Just a few drops here.

Most of the CAM don't have storms in our are until well after 00z.  Not the best time for tornados.  NRN PA and NY get convection earlier in the day, they probably have a better chance.

I can't see the center, but it's likely way west of the forecast track

3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

A few flakes flying in the air with the rain... latest I've personally seen. 36.8F

Looks like it's snowing all the way down to the coast in Fairfield/ Bridgeport.

Looks like some decent rates in Albany.

A lot of thunder is better than we normally get with the synaptic system squall lines..  Usually it's indistinguishable from a gardener accidentally hitting the window with the hose for 10 seconds.

Can we get a storm with winds stronger than the synaptic winds behind the coldfront? Thats all I want

So NAMed this run

GFS has a bizarre snowstorm at 318hrs for l PA and NJ.  At least the old GFS fantasy range snowstorms looked somewhat physically possible.

58 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Comparing the 18Z to 12z GEFS clown snow map mean at 6 days it was a marginal improvement.

Still show a horrible H5 pattern after day 7

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There is a +PNA at 240 on the 18z GEFS, so there's that.

Appears to be rather transient though. Not liking the Pac look overall.  Going to be an warm period for the foreseeable future.

Imagine  if there was a bulls ass that could talk, and screamed  "Hey everyone look at me" every 2 minutes. You think people would catch on and stop falling for it after 70+ years but apparently sometimes they don't.

I hope a hurricane permanently stalls off the coast so we can hallucinate on which way it's moving 365 days a year.

Somebody smash the HMON and the HWRF now.   Their track outputs are not supposed to be taken seriously.

TV Mets are going to have to start calling "the eye" of the Dorian "The Pupil" so they don't confuse the public.

2 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Wishcasting a Cat 5 to hit a major city in FL hard.  Storm hitting somewhere with low population and no major buildings to destroy is lame.   

 Freeport,  spends 24hrs in the eye on the Euro. Plenty of buildings to destroy there, I don't know how well built they are, but they are going to need to hold up to CAT 4/5

34 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Pulling for a cat 5 to hit a major metro. 

As long as the 3km NAM agrees