Amped

Hopefully the moco deathband makes it here.

Inverted troff FTW. Models still stink at handling these.  If we had wind, it would be almost like 2/10/10.

The HRRR kept saying this band would move south,but it's still drifting north.

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Hvy snow now....very nice fatties!  Did not expect this today.....

Still no fatties here, but flake size has improved

2 minutes ago, Solo2 said:

Even under the darker greens....just can't quite get beyond SN- and small flakage a few miles north of 70 here.  So close!

Annoying, it keeps going all around us, but it is still drifting north.

You can see a dryslot over the Delmarva and offshore. Probably why we have enhanced lift over us and heavier rates than any model showed. It's the opposite of  March 2013.

Snow is picking up, but no fatties yet.

Just now, Solo2 said:

Getting close to 1"/Hr stuff now in FDK.

Hopefully this holds for an hour or two. It's the only way we'll get as much as NVA and DC

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Yea..that band southwest of frederick is getting real nice 

Has some big flakes for sure

Steady snow, about 1.5" so far.

There's a nice band over Ohio and WV, hopefully it can make it to our area.

Just now, Deck Pic said:

18zgfs

Have never been happy with how this looks north of I70. We really don't get into the good rates.   It's going to be hard to get 6" from snizzle.

On 6/5/2018 at 11:43 AM, nrgjeff said:

The 11-15 day forecast is a low confidence mess, but I want to look at two options in the few days leading up to and including Father's Day. Weeklies and Ensembles try to lower heights in the Plains. Many outcomes are possible, but I look at two below...

First one involves a cutoff ULL roaming through Texas. It would be helpful for more rain in the Southern Plains. However it would be worthless for storm chasing.

Second one could be more interesting. It has a little bit of STJ coming into the Southwest US and approaching NM and the TX Panhandle. LLJ responds most days. While we generally write off south of I-70 in mid-June (and rightfully so) the Caprock and above can still work.

Wish I could be optimistic, but we know 2018 favors UULs. Otherwise, grab the passport and chase Canada, MT and the Dakotas.

Euro has a pretty strong low coming out of the central plains into the Ohio Valley late next week.  It would likely result in a multiday severe outbreak. GFS looks totally different.

On 6/5/2018 at 8:40 PM, andyhb said:

Hey all, figured I'd drop my first post in here as a red tagger.

...now can we get an actual setup to talk about (who am I kidding, it's 2018 still)

2018 Tornado stats from 4 states I handpicked. Tells most of the 2018 story.  

WY: 14

OK: 10

VA:10

ID:9

Edit: Another tornado, right after I make the post. And of course, it's in Wyoming

Now this is almost like a storm moving up the Gulf of California.

Looks like the deathband totals got killed by the upslope totals in a very slow painful way.

  15:1 should be about the maximum ratio allowed on large snowstorm >20".  If you have more than 30, you better have >2" liquid.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

heh

NH and Maine look like they're getting rocked just as hard as MASS

1 minute ago, BRSno said:

Updated

Poor Tolland,  they got fringed.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I would say fronto plots did have that. H7 forcing was just east and with sloped ascent, boom. Seems like it is slowly ticking east.

Yeah kind of an odd sounding there's lift above and below H7

So a deathband forms over ORH even if no model has one there.

GFS  and ECMWF D9-10 showing a possible Philippines storm.

Storms don't often form below 10N, but when they do, there isn't much shear, and SSTS stay high year round in these areas.

12 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

This is 100kts? 

 

Sandy definitely looked worse. If they had satellite in 1938 it probably wouldn't have looked much better. Transitioning storms aren't going to look as good on satellite.

Probably down to a tame 100kts with a 10 foot storm surge over the worlds most populated area. No big deal.  

Taken a big jog west of the forecast track the past few hours. Moving due north as far as I can tell.