Amped

Gfs day 12 has a major Arkansas ice storm, which is nice cause I need a reminder that Arkansas exists every now and then.

December 2009 repeat. 

Just helped shovel some of 7-8" we had in Wesport. It felt pretty heavy for that amount. Not surprised given the small flake size, ratios were so-so.

Best event Ive had in several years though.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

They managed to slowly claw their way to 4”+ with additional redevelopment late evening….wasnt pretty and the best was north, but that allowed the event to still be decent there. 

Long Island sound enhancement seems to have helped a bit. 

Radar looks like a lot more snow over Mass than modeled. 

6" here in Westport. Not pounding anymore, just tapping.

Seems like all of CT except the ne corner has 5" now no matter when it started.

The NNJ dryslot looks nasty. Hopfully that fills in quickly.

Visiting family in Westport. Have about 2.5-3 and still coming down hard even though flakes are tiny.

Visiting family in Westport. Puking snow closing in on 1". Not bad for the first hour of the storm.

Got a dusting in Columbia. Snowing decently now.

Finally some decent flakes in downtown columbia, nothing sticking. NW Howard County has like 1" already. 

Got flakes with a couple of raindrops mixed in.

Finally got some decent virga overhead.

Big jump in totals for north Central MD. It went from dryslot to jackpot in the last 3 run cycles.

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gotcha

 

Love the supergreen fall grass.  Its like a perfect giveaway of the long exposer.

Radar estimate of about 2.75" in Greenwhich CT

It slowed down quite a bit at landfall.

Interesting radar in the last hour. It started with what looked like concentric eyewalls, now there are about 4 or 5 mesovortices and the old inner eyewall is one of them.

23 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's pretty amazing how bad the short term forecast was for the GFS. For days on end, it's two day forecast was hundreds of miles off. Hopefully NOAA makes some changes, pretty embarrassing. 

The initialization was really bad on wed-friday. It was already 100 miles too far east and 10mb too strong at hour zero on some runs.

The eye is closed off on radar now.

5 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

This may be one of those storms (hopefully) that takes far longer to get it together than the models predict.  The current LLC is significantly displaced rom the MLC still, nothing big is going to happen until they stack.

Yeah but there's a troff thats been keeping them separate. When it lifts out, it should result in both a west turn and a center alignment.

1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

I don't know if I would describe that LLC as well defined.  It still looks messy and very elongated to me based on satellite and recon data, but better than yesterday.

1002mb usually isn't well defined. The Euro is not really showing much deepening until tomorrow morning. It probably becomes a hurricane tomorrow evening and a major by Sunday afternoon.

45 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

06z Google.... almost all tracks now over Jamaica.

No matter how far southwest it tracks, it turns right back over Jamaica.

Jamaica will disrupt the core if it moves directly over it. 20 miles south or north and it may actually help consolidate the core and intensify faster.

Also the eastern part has the highest terrain.