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Amped

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    Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    On 6/5/2018 at 11:43 AM, nrgjeff said:

    The 11-15 day forecast is a low confidence mess, but I want to look at two options in the few days leading up to and including Father's Day. Weeklies and Ensembles try to lower heights in the Plains. Many outcomes are possible, but I look at two below...

    First one involves a cutoff ULL roaming through Texas. It would be helpful for more rain in the Southern Plains. However it would be worthless for storm chasing.

    Second one could be more interesting. It has a little bit of STJ coming into the Southwest US and approaching NM and the TX Panhandle. LLJ responds most days. While we generally write off south of I-70 in mid-June (and rightfully so) the Caprock and above can still work.

    Wish I could be optimistic, but we know 2018 favors UULs. Otherwise, grab the passport and chase Canada, MT and the Dakotas.

    Euro has a pretty strong low coming out of the central plains into the Ohio Valley late next week.  It would likely result in a multiday severe outbreak. GFS looks totally different.

    Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    On 6/5/2018 at 8:40 PM, andyhb said:

    Hey all, figured I'd drop my first post in here as a red tagger.

    ...now can we get an actual setup to talk about (who am I kidding, it's 2018 still)

    2018 Tornado stats from 4 states I handpicked. Tells most of the 2018 story.  

    WY: 14

    OK: 10

    VA:10

    ID:9

     

    Edit: Another tornado, right after I make the post. And of course, it's in Wyoming

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    WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

     
    Transated

     

     
    Quote

    Typhoon 21 "eyes" enter by plane and direct observation successful

    October 21 19:13

    In order to investigate the very large and very strong typhoon 21, a research group centered on Nagoya University, for the first time as a Japanese researcher, entered the "eye" which is the center of the typhoon by airplane for the first time, We made observations. A huge cumulonimbus cloud developed around "eye" which is the center of the typhoon, it was observed that a violent wind was blowing in the periphery, and the expert who went for observation said, "In a typhoon-specific state that developed rapidly, In the future too, we need strict watchfulness against the raging rain and wind in a wide range. "

    We conducted observations with research groups from typhoon experts such as Nagoya University and the University of the Ryukyus.

    On the 21st, we took off Kagoshima Airport at noon, rose to an altitude of about 13 kilometers, and succeeded in entering the "eye" of the typhoon center from the west side of Typhoon No. 21 which developed into a very large and extremely powerful force did.

    As I entered my eyes, the blue sky suddenly expanded, and the developed cumulonimbus called "wall cloud" appeared like a wall, and there was a place where the sea level could be seen near the center.

    The research group swiveled around the center of the typhoon and dropped 21 pieces of observation equipment of about 30 cm in length called "drop sonde". Drop sonde records data such as wind speed, pressure, and humidity every minute every time while falling in clouds.

    According to the observation on 21st, near the center of the typhoon, the pressure near the ground is around 925 hectopascals, the wind speed is 80 m/s at the point of 1 kilometer from the ground, 70 m/s near the ground, the violent wind is blowing That means that we could confirm.

    According to the group, this is the first time for Japanese researchers to observe directly around the center of the typhoon by plane.

    Professor Kazuhisa Tsuboki, a representative of the research group, said, "We were able to directly confirm the situation unique to the rapidly developing typhoon.In the vicinity of the wall clouds a violent wind was blowing, We need stern guard against fierce rain and wind. "
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    70 m/s= 157mph   . Also yesterdays 12z Euro 24hrs had 926mb.  Todays 12z was initialized to 956mb.  Euro track goes right up Tokyo bay, GFS is west of it.

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    WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

    I agree this has the potential to be a big hit for Japan. Though Lan won't hold this intensity, the fast movement will mitigate rapid weakening. This very well could be an upper end Cat 3 landfall for populated areas.21608cffcef8e53e03b1e9060289daa1.jpg

    EPS mean is almost right over Tokyo. Going to get a huge surge up the bay with that track.  This thing probably has a lot more integrated kinnetic energy than Isabel or Sandy.

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