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Amped

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    WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

     
    Transated

     

     
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    Typhoon 21 "eyes" enter by plane and direct observation successful

    October 21 19:13

    In order to investigate the very large and very strong typhoon 21, a research group centered on Nagoya University, for the first time as a Japanese researcher, entered the "eye" which is the center of the typhoon by airplane for the first time, We made observations. A huge cumulonimbus cloud developed around "eye" which is the center of the typhoon, it was observed that a violent wind was blowing in the periphery, and the expert who went for observation said, "In a typhoon-specific state that developed rapidly, In the future too, we need strict watchfulness against the raging rain and wind in a wide range. "

    We conducted observations with research groups from typhoon experts such as Nagoya University and the University of the Ryukyus.

    On the 21st, we took off Kagoshima Airport at noon, rose to an altitude of about 13 kilometers, and succeeded in entering the "eye" of the typhoon center from the west side of Typhoon No. 21 which developed into a very large and extremely powerful force did.

    As I entered my eyes, the blue sky suddenly expanded, and the developed cumulonimbus called "wall cloud" appeared like a wall, and there was a place where the sea level could be seen near the center.

    The research group swiveled around the center of the typhoon and dropped 21 pieces of observation equipment of about 30 cm in length called "drop sonde". Drop sonde records data such as wind speed, pressure, and humidity every minute every time while falling in clouds.

    According to the observation on 21st, near the center of the typhoon, the pressure near the ground is around 925 hectopascals, the wind speed is 80 m/s at the point of 1 kilometer from the ground, 70 m/s near the ground, the violent wind is blowing That means that we could confirm.

    According to the group, this is the first time for Japanese researchers to observe directly around the center of the typhoon by plane.

    Professor Kazuhisa Tsuboki, a representative of the research group, said, "We were able to directly confirm the situation unique to the rapidly developing typhoon.In the vicinity of the wall clouds a violent wind was blowing, We need stern guard against fierce rain and wind. "
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    70 m/s= 157mph   . Also yesterdays 12z Euro 24hrs had 926mb.  Todays 12z was initialized to 956mb.  Euro track goes right up Tokyo bay, GFS is west of it.

    • Like 2

    WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

    I agree this has the potential to be a big hit for Japan. Though Lan won't hold this intensity, the fast movement will mitigate rapid weakening. This very well could be an upper end Cat 3 landfall for populated areas.21608cffcef8e53e03b1e9060289daa1.jpg

    EPS mean is almost right over Tokyo. Going to get a huge surge up the bay with that track.  This thing probably has a lot more integrated kinnetic energy than Isabel or Sandy.

    WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Windspeed said:
    2 hours ago, Amped said:
    I really don't know whats killing convection on the north side, there  doesn't seem to be enough shear or dry air to account for that look. Maybe the storms just too damn big.

     

    A 200mb right entrance region should start aiding it in about 24hrs,  so pressure falls can resume despite the crappy structure.

    You nailed it. That has been the issue. Lam developed as multiple surface circulations formed within a large surface trough. Over the past week, surface vorts have been competing within the large gyre. When you have that scenario, deep convection within one vort can suppress convection or create subsidence that affects parts of the overall core structure. However, it looks like a deep band is getting established and a dominate vortex will take over. The SSTs are plenty warm up to southern Japan. It may not reach Super Typhoon status, but I think it will definitly be a Cat 3/4 before the the typhoon nears Japan. Perhaps holds intensity enough to landfall as a 3.

    Latest microwave pass says big but healthy.   HWRF shows a decent 36hrs ahead.

    RFi2Prq.jpg

    Edit: Also you can see a second band on Himawari 8  rapidly making the core symmetric. Probably bombs away for real this time.

    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/himawari-8_band_03_sector_04&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=48&loop_speed_ms=100

    • Like 2

    WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    5 hours ago, cmasty1978 said:

    this is a classic case of the euro's tendency to overdeepen storms in the WPAC at that latitude. it did the same thing with NORU earlier this season and LIONROCK last year. it's late october, nothing that strong and that tropical is hitting that far N into japan.

    I really don't know whats killing convection on the north side, there  doesn't seem to be enough shear or dry air to account for that look.   Maybe the storms just too damn big.

    A 200mb right entrance region should start aiding it in about 24hrs,  so pressure falls can resume despite the crappy structure.

     

    • Like 1
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