Amped

Radar estimate of about 2.75" in Greenwhich CT

It slowed down quite a bit at landfall.

Interesting radar in the last hour. It started with what looked like concentric eyewalls, now there are about 4 or 5 mesovortices and the old inner eyewall is one of them.

23 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's pretty amazing how bad the short term forecast was for the GFS. For days on end, it's two day forecast was hundreds of miles off. Hopefully NOAA makes some changes, pretty embarrassing. 

The initialization was really bad on wed-friday. It was already 100 miles too far east and 10mb too strong at hour zero on some runs.

The eye is closed off on radar now.

5 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

This may be one of those storms (hopefully) that takes far longer to get it together than the models predict.  The current LLC is significantly displaced rom the MLC still, nothing big is going to happen until they stack.

Yeah but there's a troff thats been keeping them separate. When it lifts out, it should result in both a west turn and a center alignment.

1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

I don't know if I would describe that LLC as well defined.  It still looks messy and very elongated to me based on satellite and recon data, but better than yesterday.

1002mb usually isn't well defined. The Euro is not really showing much deepening until tomorrow morning. It probably becomes a hurricane tomorrow evening and a major by Sunday afternoon.

45 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

06z Google.... almost all tracks now over Jamaica.

No matter how far southwest it tracks, it turns right back over Jamaica.

Jamaica will disrupt the core if it moves directly over it. 20 miles south or north and it may actually help consolidate the core and intensify faster.

Also the eastern part has the highest terrain.

There are still too much of a chance eastern track over western Hispanola like the ICON is showing to ignore.   It wouldn't be the first time the Euro has missed a center relocation and shown a track way too far southwest.

Not saying it will happen, just keep it in mind when posting 200kt Hafs A-B runs. They are going to look really bad if this turns into Cat1 Shrederolla

On 10/5/2025 at 6:55 PM, Torch Tiger said:

I really want an Oct. 1991 redux.  but grace were a cat 5 injected from the SW more, and a rounded/phase track like Sandy.  It's a weenie Hazel/Sandy/38 type thing 

I think the 12z GGEM might have been listening in.

35 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The surface center has once again been spit out toward the west as the convection is unable to hold onto it.

It seems almost like something related to the diurnal cycle.  A convective blob forms at night and pulls the center east. Then shear ramps up and rips it apart during the day and it drifts back west. 

The 12 Cmc pulls a Sandy.

The 12z Cmc is probably just as far off with the track at 120hrs as the GFS, just in the opposite direction. If you average them you might get an accurate position somewhere southwest of Jamaica.

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Here's the latest Google model.

 

It seems like the less latitude it gains in the next 72hrs, the more it gets tucked back under the ridge and bombs in the following 72 hrs, like the Euro and Cmc are showing. 

The Icon and Gfs show it gaining more latitude in the first 72hrs, then interacting with land when it tries to bomb.

Recon not really finding a closed center. Clearly a low level circulation on the visible though at around 14.2N 72.8W and still zipping west. This would rule out the GFS solution if it keeps up for a few hours.

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The surface center is leaving the convection behind again this morning.

Yeah it does not look like it's going to strengthen much in the near term.

Surprised to see no models caving in yet.  Gfs clearly shows too much intensification given the amount of shear, even if it's track ends up correct.

Euro and Icon seem to have the middle of the road tracks where it stalls near Jamaica thats my current leaning.

Cmc and Ukmet have a west bias, so they are the least likely Imo.

Edit: The 12z eps has a lot of members with strong lows near the Honduras coast so maybe that solution has a better chance than I originally thought.

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has a piece of energy in the sw Caribbean that competes with the energy coming in from the east.  That also causes it to stop much earlier and end up much farther northeast.  The Euro, on the other hand, has the main wave remaining the dominant energy, and also has stronger ridging to the north, which keeps the system moving westward.

Strangely the GFS has a second storm forming in the central Caribbean, so the GFS and Euro end up with a similar look at 348 hrs.

Edit: The first storm on the GFS bombs out over PR in like 40kts of shear. Maybe it has a valid reason for doing this, but its a tough solution to believe at this point.

All models showing something in the Caribbean next week.

00z Euro brought the storm back for NYC and NJ at least. We're still SOL.

There's an inverted troff south of bermuda that is causing all the difference on model runs.   The gfs and American models show it slowly moving north and dispersing it while the main coastal moves up into NC/VA.

Non-American models are showing it quickly moving northwest and forming into a second low pressure somewhere well east of NC which shreds the other low closer to the Carolina coast

One of the smaller features I've ever seen cause chaos in a forecast.

Edit: 00z GFS initialization looks further west with that feature. It might be caving in.

Medium range rug pulls is what our region does best. 

The IR almost looks like a copypasta of Dorian.

At least we have a 50/50 low