PDIII

nahhhh... ice storms are easy peasy... just look at the GFS.. it shows it in pink and it goes out like 400 hours.

Remember tha psu definitively canceled winter earlier this year.. in one of our greatest posts in AmericanWX history.. he all but said.. "no snow for you".. I figured that was my cue to start paying attention

Yeah definitely.. not sure about how reliable this is.. but check out this link: https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Maryland/Places/baltimore-snowfall-totals-snow-accumulation-averages.php It says that average snowfall is greater in February than January..and we know that it gets spotty towards the end of February. So I think it is safe to that we are heading in to our peak climo in the next couple of weeks

Both operational models show the the negative PNA index lightening up on its grip. Thats just in time for our prime time climo. Glad to see it.

I realized this morning that the pattern lines up well with the Raven's road to the Superbowl. It looks to me that it will hold for the AFC championship game (knock on wood) and Baltimore might enjoy Indian summer conditions for the divisional round!. Lamar's has had troubles in the past with adverse weather conditions.. so for me this is the silver lining.

This basically says that it is not going to snow.. whatever it is showing in Garrett county is just whatever they get after a frontal passage.. we dont get that.. and the 2-3 inch stuff in Frederick County is noise. This map is depressing..

It is hard to argue the logic and analysis here.. but that ridge out in the pacific will break down and the pattern will flip.. and given this all nonsense started a in mid December we will probably enter in to a period with better odds for snow somewhere in February/ March... and thats usually what we see anyways.. I am not worried. I will enjoy jogging outside the next couple of weeks.

Can't even manage some severe with a frontal passage. Red Flag warnings surely will be hoisted.

Now just flurries.. but I am glad I get to see some flakes!

I am in nyc right now for work. Long night last nigh. Woke up to moderate snow.. as soon as I saw it I just knew that we were gonna over perform!!

LWX talked about the potential for this this morning: " slightly negative EPV and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI banding is possible"

Haha.. yeah! I love it!!!

I think the gfs took a small step back on from 18 to 0.. but it does not matter at this lead. It's locked up.. lets bring it up. 8 inch lollis

Eta I catonsville md it is cold as fock... And the dewpoint is low as fock.

This explains it https://www.rd.com/culture/why-you-can-smell-snow/