Vergent

Here is what these same researchers were thinking a year ago. http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=12040&pageid=&pagename=

Methane is relatively short lived in the atmosphere, 6-12 years. It took over 6,000 years for the ice-age ice to melt. Even if there was 100 times as much methane, the rate and the air concentration would still be lower. It is the abruptness of this Arctic fart that is the danger.

"SHOCK THE WORLD OF SCIENCE: Arctic Ocean Methane threatens Earth" Citeste mai mult pe REALITATEA.NET: http://www.realitatea.net/soc-in-lumea-stiintifica-metanul-din-oceanul-arctic-ameninta-pamantul_895855.html#ixzz1gdd1r935 It's unbelievable, "Semiletov said. "The threat of methane gas" http://www.haberturk.com/dunya/haber/696566-metan-gazi-tehdidi "Melting ice will free hundreds of millions of tons of methane" http://www.khoahoc.com.vn/congnghemoi/cong-nghe-moi/36676_Bang-tan-se-giai-phong-hang-tram-trieu-tan-khi-metan.aspx

You did not notice that all of these articles are written by Igor Semiletov. If you read all of them, you will know some but not all of what he knows about the arctic and carbon. He is shocked and astonished by the methane release. It is his expert opinion that the methane release he witnessed and measured is shocking, astonishing, and unprecedented in human history. If this experts description is any where near accurate, many gigatons of methane have been dumped into the atmosphere this year. That is enough to have world wide impact. If you want to ignore this until the paper is published you are free to do so. In fact please ignore it. Stop spamming with inane banalities.

If an expert like Igor Semiletov is "shocked" and "alarmed" maybe we should be too.

Okay, you want more data. here is more data:) Enjoy! Igor Semiletov In Press Shakhova, N, Semiletov I. In Press. Trace gas emissions from sub-sea permafrost. Climate Change and the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA). :97-104. 2011 Karlsson, ES, Charkin A, Dudarev O, Semiletov I, Vonk JE, Sánchez-García L, Andersson A, Gustafsson Ö. 2011. Carbon isotopes and lipid biomarker investigation of sources, transport and degradation of terrestrial organic matter in the Buor-Khaya Bay, SE Laptev Sea. Biogeosciences. 8:1865-1879. Semiletov, I, Pipko II, Shakhova N, Dudarev OV, Pugach SP, Charkin A, McRoy CP, Kosmach D, Gustafsson Ö. 2011. Carbon transport by the Lena River from its headwaters to the Arctic Ocean, with emphasis on fluvial input of terrestrial particulate organic carbon vs. carbon transport by coastal erosion. Biogeosciences. 8:2407-2426. Pipko, II, Pugach SP, Semiletov I, Salyuk AN. 2011. Carbonate characteristics of waters of the Arctic Ocean continental slope. Doklady Earth Sciences. 438(2):858-863. Anderson, LG, Björk G, Jutterström S, Pipko II, Shakhova N, Semiletov I, Wåhlström I. 2011. East Siberian Sea, an Arctic region of very high biogeochemical activity. Biogeosciences. 8:1745-1754. Pipko, II, Semiletov I, Pugach SP, Wåhlström I, Anderson LG. 2011. Interannual variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes and carbonate system parameters in the East Siberian Sea. Biogeosciences. 8:2007. Sánchez-García, L, Alling V, Pugach S, Vonk J, Van Dongen BE, Humborg C, Dudarev O, Semiletov I, Gustafsson Ö. 2011. Inventories and behavior of particulate organic carbon in the Laptev and East Siberian Seas. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 25(GB2007) Semiletov, I, Pipko II, Shakhova N, Dudarev OV, Pugach SP, Charkin AN, McRoy CP, Kosmach D, Gustafsson Ö. 2011. On the biogeochemical signature of the Lena River from its headwaters to the Arctic Ocean. Biogeosciences Discuss.. 8:2093-2143. Charkin, A, Dudarev OV, Semiletov I, Kruhmalev AV, Vonk JE, Sánchez-García L, Karlsson ES, Gustafsson Ö. 2011. Seasonal and interannual variability of sedimentation and organic matter distribution in the Buor Khaya Gulf – the primary recipient of input from Lena River and coastal erosion in the SE Laptev Sea. Biogeosciences. 8:2581-941. Gustafsson, Ö, Van Dongen BE, Vonk JE, Dudarev OV, Semiletov I. 2011. Widespread release of old carbon across the Siberian Arctic echoed by its large rivers. Biogeosciences. 8:1737-1743. 2010 Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Gustafsson O. 2010. Methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf—Response. Science. 329(5996):1147-1148. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Salyuk A, Joussupov V, Kosmach D, Gustafsson O. 2010. Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Science. 327(5970):1246-1250. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Leifer I, Rekant P, Salyuk A, Kosmach D. 2010. Geochemical and geophysical evidence of methane release from the inner East Siberian Shelf. Journal of Geophysical Research. 115 Vonk, JE, Sanchez-Garcıa L, Semiletov I, Dudarev O, Eglinton T, Andersson A, Gustafsson O. 2010. Molecular and radiocarbon constraints on sources and degradation of terrestrial organic carbon along the Kolyma paleoriver transect, East Siberian Sea.Biogeosciences. 7:3153–3166. Alling, V, Sánchez-García L, Porcelli D, Pugach S, Vonk J, van Dongen B, Mörth CM, Anderson LG, Sokolov A, Andersson P et al.. 2010. Non-conservative behavior of dissolved organic carbon across the Laptev and East Siberian Seas. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 24(GB4033) 2009 Shakhova, N, Semiletov I. 2009. Methane Hydrate Feedbacks. Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications. :81-92. Porcelli, D, Andersson P, Baskaran M, Frank M, Bjvrk G, Semiletov I. 2009. The distribution of neodymium isotopes in Arctic Ocean Basins. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta. Shakhova, N, Sergienko VI, Semiletov I. 2009. Modern state of the role of the East Siberian Shelf in the methance cycle. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 3 2008 Pipko, II, Semiletov I, Tishenko PY, Pugach SP, Savelieva NI. 2008. Carbon System Parameters Variability in the East-Siberian Sea Coastal-Shelf Zone during Fall Season. Okeanologiya. 48:59-72. Christensen, JP, Shimada K, Semiletov I, Wheeler PA. 2008. Chlorophyll Response to Shelf-break Upwelling and Winds in the Chukchi Sea, Alaska, in Autumn. The Open Oceanography Journal. 2:34-53. Pipko, II, Repina IA, Salyuk AN, Semiletov I, Pugach SP. 2008. Comparison of Calculated and Measured CO2 Fluxes between the Ocean and Atmosphere in the Southwestern Part of the East Siberia Sea. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 422:1105-1108. Vetrov, AA, Semiletov I, Dudarev O, Peresipkin VI, Charkin A. 2008. Composition and genesis of the organic matter in the bottom sediments of the East Siberian Sea. Geochemistry International. 46 Van Dongen, BE, Semiletov I, Weijers JWH, Gustafsson O. 2008. Contrasting lipid biomarker composition of terrestrial organic matter exported from across the Eurasion Arctic by the five Great Russian Artic Rivers. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 22 Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Sergienko VI, Salyuk AN, Belcheva N, Kosmach D. 2008. "On the role of the East Siberian Shelf in the modern marine methane cycle" in Change of Natural Environment and Climate- natural and possile consequent human-induced catastrophes. VI:164-176. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Salyuk AN, Belcheva N, Kosmach D, Sergienko VI. 2008. On the role of the East Siberian Shelf in the modern mathance cycle and global change. Harold of the East-Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences. 2008 Elmquist, M, Semiletov I, Guo L, Gustafsson O. 2008. Pan-Arctic patterns in black carbon sources and fluvial discharges deduced from radiocarbon and PAH source apportionment markers in estuarine surface sediments. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 22 2007 Semiletov, I, Pipko II, Repina IA, Shakhova N. 2007. Carbonate dynamics and carbon dioxide fluxes across the atmosphere-ice-water interfaces in the Arctic Ocean, Pacific sector of the Arctic. Journal of Marine Systems. 66:204-226. Dudarev, OV, Semiletov I, Charkin A. 2007. Different scale inhomogeneties in particulate material composition in the Lena River-Laptev Sea system. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 410 Repina, IA, Semiletov I, Smirnov AS. 2007. Direct measurement of CO2 fluxes in the Laptev Sea in summer. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 413 Pipko, II, Semiletov I, Tishenko PY, Pugach SP, Savelieva NI. 2007. "Dynamics of the carbonate system and CO2 fluxes between the ocean and atmosphere in a coastal shelf zone of the East-Siberian sea during autumn" in Far Eastern Seas of Russia Book 2.:365-381. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Belcheva N. 2007. The Great Siberian Rivers as a source of methane on the Russian Arctuic shelf.Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 414 Semiletov, I, Dudarev O, Pipko II, Salyuk AN, Shakhova N. 2007. "Interannual variability of thermohaline structure and hydrochemical chrakteristics of the coatsla waters in a shelf zone of the East-Siberian Sea" in Far Eastern Seas of Russia, Book 2. :309-324. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Salyuk AN, Belcheva N, Kosmach D. 2007. Methane anomalies in the near-water atmospheric layer above the shelf of East Siberian Arctic shelf. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 415:764-768. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Salyuk AN, Belcheva N, Kosmach D. 2007. "Methane anomalies on a shelf of the Arcitc seas of Russia" in Far Eastern Seas of Russia, Book 2. :353-364. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I. 2007. Methane release and coastal environment in the East Siberian Arctic shelf. Journal of Marine Systems. 66:227-243. Dudarev, O, Charkin A, Semiletov I, Botsul A, Kosmach D. 2007. "Modern sedimentation on the near-continental shelf of the East-Siberian Sea" in Far Eastern Seas of Russia, Book 2. :419-422. Semiletov, I, Pipko II. 2007. Sinks and sources of carbon dioxide in the Arctic Ocean. Transactions of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 414:642-645. Dudarev, O, Charkin A, Semiletov I, Salyuk AN, Shilo IN, Spivak EA. 2007. "Transformation of the sedimentation environment above the relic banks of the East-Siberian Arctic seas" in Far Eastern Seas of Russia, Book 2. :382-391. 2006 Macdonald, RW, Anderson DM, Christensen JP, Miller JS, Semiletov I, Stein R. 2006. Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes in Continental Margins: A Global Synthesis. Sergienko, VI, Semiletov I. 2006. FEBRAS Marine Investigations In the Arctic. 4 Belzile, C, Roesler CS, Christensen JP, Shakhova N, Semiletov I. 2006. Fluorescence measured using the WETStar DOM fluorometer as a proxy for dissolved matter absorption. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science. 67:441-449. Semiletov, I, Shakhova N. 2006. Methane Climate Forcing and Methane Observations in the Siberian Arctic Land-Shelf System. World Resource Review. 16:503-541. Pipko, II, Semiletov I, Pugach SP. 2006. On the CO2 exchange in the atmosphere-ocean system over the Chukchi Sea shelf.Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 410:679-683. Dudarev, OV, Semiletov I, Charkin A, Botsul A. 2006. Sedimentation over the East-Siberian shelf. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 409 2005 Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Belcheva N. 2005. Dissolved methane in the Arctic Seas. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 402:1-5. Pipko, II, Semiletov I, Pugach SP. 2005. On dynamics of the carbonate system in the East-Siberian Sea. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 402 Gukov, A, Dudarev OV, Semiletov I, Charkin A, Gorshkova Y. 2005. Characteristics of the benthic biomass distribution in the bottom sediment in the southern part of teh East Siberian Sea. Oceanology. 45:889-896. Iossoupov, VI, Salomatin AS, Semiletov I. 2005. Connection among acoustical backscattering and temperature in the upper layer of the bottom sediment on the shelf of the Arctic Seas. Transactions of Russian Academy of Sciences. 402:686-688. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Panteleev GG. 2005. Distribution of methane on the Siberian Arctic shelves: implications for the marine methane cycle. Geophysical Research Letters. 32:L09601. Semiletov, I, Dudarev O, Luchin VA, Charkin A, Shin KH, Tanaka T. 2005. The East Siberian Sea as a transition zone between Pacific-derived waters and Arctic shelf waters. Geophysical Research Letters. 32:L10614. 2005 Luchin, VA, Semiletov I. 2005. Interannual Variability of Water Temperature in the Chukchi Sea. Doklady Earth Sciences. 405A:1419-1422. Shakhova, N, Semiletov I, Belcheva N. 2005. Methane in the Eastern Arctic Seas. Transactions of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 402:529-533. Iossoupov, VI, Salomatin AS, Semiletov I. 2005. Relationship between backscattering of high-frequency acoustical signal and temperature in the upper sediment layer over the Arctic shelf. Transactions of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 409:822-827. 2004 Semiletov, I, Makshtas AP, Akasofu S-I, Andreas EL. 2004. Atmospheric CO2 balance: the role of Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters. 31:L05121. Guo, L, Semiletov I, Gustafsson O, Ingri J, Andersson P, Dudarev O, White D. 2004. Characterization of Siberian Arctic estuarine sediments: Implications for terrestrial organic carbon export. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 18:GB1036. Savelieva, NI, Semiletov I, Weller GE, Vasilevskaya LN, Yusupov VI. 2004. Climate change in the northern Asia in the second half of the 20th century. Pacific Oceanography. 2:74-84. 2003 Dudarev, O, Semiletov I, Botsul A, Charkin A. 2003. Modern sedimentation in the coastal cryolitozone of the Dmitry Laptev Strait/East-Siberian Sea. Pacific Geology. 22:51-60. Semiletov, I, Dudarev O, Savelieva NI, Pipko II, Pugach SP. 2003. POI studies in the Arctic Amerasian Shelf. Herald of the Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences. 108:73-80. 2002 Pipko, II, Semiletov I, Tishenko PY, Pugach SP, Christensen JP. 2002. Carbonate chemistry dynamics in Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea. Progress in Oceanography. 55:77-94. Luchin, VA, Semiletov I, Weller GE. 2002. Changes in the Bering Sea region: atmosphere-ice-water system in teh second half of the twentieth century. Progress in Oceanography. 55:23-44. 2001 Semiletov, I. 2001. Changes In the Atmosphere-Land-Sea System In the Amerasian Arctic. 3 « FIRST

"Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter." "This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter." "Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them." "Scientists estimate that there are hundreds of millions of tonnes of methane gas locked away beneath the Arctic permafrost" "Dr Semiletov's team published a study in 2010 estimating that the methane emissions from this region were about eight million tonnes a year" "In late summer, the Russian research vessel Academician Lavrentiev conducted an extensive survey of about 10,000 square miles of sea off the East Siberian coast." "on a scale not seen before. Some plumes were a kilometre or more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere – the concentration was a hundred times higher than normal." How mutch more data do you need to see that this is not good?

sorry, contrary to forum rules, I posted this graph without an explanation. This is not good("I have a bad feeling about this.").

Does anyone know of any real-time monitoring of methane in the arctic?

"1. I'm pretty sure the Arctic is not boiling." Its not boiling steam, its boiling methane" "2. How did you arrive at that million percent factor?" The methane vents increased from "tens of meters " to "over a thousand meters in diameter" a factor on the order of 100. Area is the square of diameter so the area factor is 10,000 or 1,000,000%. Also they reported that the vents had also increased in number and strength. "3. The article comes from a source that is known to be tabloidish and alarmist. Just look at their silly title." The article is primarily quotes in context from a known and respected researcher. Unless they are lying, and if they are I am sure the researcher will soon correct the record, the information comes from a reliable source, the researcher. " 4. What historical records of methane release in that particular area, or even the Arctic as a whole, do we have to compare this to?" The blow out in the Gulf of Mexico caused a methane vent tens of meters in diameter. So, this is like 1,000,000 blow outs without the oil slick. We haven't had a blow out in the arctic that I am aware of ... yet. "5. Even if your figure was correct and the Arctic had released a millions times more methane this year, wouldn't that be bringing out the "severe and sudden" warming the article references? Instead, we've seen global temperature drop rapidly over the past several months." Not, "a millions times" 10,000 times or a million %. The past several months, since mid August, the arctic insolation has been next to zero or zero. GHG trap sunlight. There has been no sunlight to trap. The effect of this will be felt in the spring.

So, now the arctic is boiling methane, by a factor of 1,000,000%, in one year, and this is not alarming? You must be on Gilligan's island.

"The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years." "Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said. "I was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes. Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them." A 100 fold increase in diameter equals a 10,000 fold increase in area or a 1,000,000% increase in methane venting from the arctic. In one year. I am alarmed! Lets talk about a hockey stick. Or a tipping point. We are no longer in control. The arctic can increase its GHG faster than we can diminish (lol) ours. Have a nice day,

"Retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas." http://www.independe...as-6276134.html It looks like the sst anomaly is destabilizing methane hydrate big time. Could this be the missing feedback that explains why the models are underestimating the melt?