Vergent
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For those who are complaining that more stations are not detecting the methane, this is how narrowly distributed a localized emission is(in this case ash). We are lucky to have caught a whiff of it at Barrow.
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I was disappointed that there was not more discussion about Arctic Methane Emergency Group. http://www.arctic-me...ders/4558749249 It certainly lays to rest the notion that the article in the Independent was a tabloid exaggeration. There is a page discussing the impacts of arctic meltdown http://www.arctic-me...acts/4558297042 It also has suggestions for remediation. http://www.arctic-me...onse/4558229020 It also explains why the scientists consider this an emergency. http://www.arctic-me...ency/4558130767 there is also an interesting FAQ page. http://www.arctic-me...faqs/4558804295 Searching google news: " No results found for "arctic methane emergency group". Does anyone else find this alarming?
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Not really a spike, but they set a new record.
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Barrows air is coming off the arctic fromGreenland, Greenlang, from northern Europe. The air did not have a methane spike when it left Greenland , but has a methane spike when it gets to Barrow. Looks like the arctic is the source of this methane to me. The elevated methane has been measured by land air and sea, by three separate programs, the venting has been witnessed.
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"When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is low in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region." http://en.wikipedia....tic_oscillation This fall we had measurements from a surface vessel and a wide ranging aircraft survey. The vessel measured "100 times normal", the aircraft: "Something too new to fully understand (although a report on it is being prepared for publication), Wofsy says, is a finding of notable concentrations of methane in the Arctic’s atmosphere that trace back to the sea." “We observed that the ocean surface releases methane to the atmosphere all over the whole of the Arctic Ocean,” http://www.sciencene...imate_surprises Now, these people will not get their data published until spring. So we should just ignore their warning? What do you want to talk about? 2009? We have lots of published data about that.
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/334245/title/HIPPO_reveals_climate_surprises http://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246.abstract
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It comes from natural gas deposits. Here in California we have natural gas seepage all over the place. The seepage is generally slow and constant. With a short half life in the air slow seepage is not a big problem. The problem comes when thousands of years of seepage is stored near the surface as a hydrate and becomes unstable causing a rapid, high volume release.
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The data assimilation is performed using the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) (Cummings, 2005) system with a model forecast as the first guess. NCODA assimilates available satellite altimeter observations (along track obtained via the NAVOCEANO Altimeter Data Fusion Center), satellite ice concentration, satellite and in situ SST as well as available in situ vertical temperature and salinity profiles from XBTs, Argo floats and moored buoys using a 3-Dimensional VARiational analysis (3DVAR) scheme. For more information about the validation of the ACNFS, see (Posey, et al., 2010). For more information concerning the models see the links below: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/prologue.html "The ocean model temperature and salinity fields are loosely constrained (Sarmiento and Bryan, 1982) to the Levitus (1982) climatological data set." http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs/2010/posey1-2010.pdf
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Unless they are lying, it is already happening. They know that, you have to admire their courage. You also have to to believe that they are scared, more for the planet than for their jobs and reputation.
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An Arctic methane emergency group has been formed, and has set up a web site. http://www.arctic-me...bout/4558060537 "Letter to the worlds leaders" "Emergency intervention to stabilize Arctic sea ice and thereby Arctic methane is today a matter of our survival." http://www.arctic-me...ders/4558749249 Ken Caldeira, Professor of Environmental Earth System Sciences, Stanford University, US; Ed Dlugokencky, PhD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US; Michel Halbwachs, Professor of Physics, University of Savoie, France; Veli Albert Kallio, Chairman of the Frozen Isthmuses’ Protection Campaign, UK/Finland; Jon Egill Kristjansson, Professor of meteorology, Oslo University, Norway; Mike MacCracken, PhD, Climate Institute, Washington, US; David Mitchell, Associate Research Professor, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, DRI, US; Brian Orr, PhD, former Principle Scientific Officer, Department of the Environment Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering at Edinburgh University, UK; Natalia Shakhova, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US; Igor Semiletov, PhD, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, US; Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, Cambridge University, UK; Leonid Yurganov, PhD, Dept of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada.
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The global will will not be there until we get alarmed, shocked, and frightened by an actual threat. An ice free arctic in late summer might do the trick. That will be the climate change Pearl Harbor. After the holidays I am going to start a new topic about this.
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Back on topic:some interesting reading: "Fossil fuels are a common source of both ethane and methane. Methane has many other sources, but we know most of the ethane in the atmosphere today is from fossil fuels. If ethane changes, it is easier to figure out the cause" said Aydin. "After carbon dioxide, methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. This research was conducted to track ethane and to see what it could tell us about methane. We found that ethane emissions declined at the same time as the rise in methane dramatically slowed, suggesting a common cause." At the end of the 20th century, methane and ethane were deemed valuable energy resources; collected and consumed as natural gas they are converted to carbon dioxide. The researchers' results for this time frame indicate that the leveling off in atmospheric methane in recent years is likely linked to this change in energy use. http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=121363 An abrupt release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, from ice sheets that extended to Earth's low latitudes some 635 million years ago caused a dramatic shift in climate, scientists funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) report in this week's issue of the journal Nature. The shift triggered events that resulted in global warming and an ending of the last "snowball" ice age. The researchers believe that the methane was released gradually at first and then very quickly from clathrates--methane ice that forms and stabilizes beneath ice sheets. http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=111554&org=EAR&from=news
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I just meant that we need to be less concerned about ourselves and more concerned about others. I saw a "so what" posting in response to some very poor people loosing their homes to rising sea level. I do not think the political will and the money to deal with the problem effectively, until something bad happens. Exxon, the Koch brothers and Rush have run an effective propaganda campaign. We are loosing the battlefield of public opinion.
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How long are the deniers and the fossil fuel companies going to dig their heels in and prevent meaningful action?
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Declare global war on GHG. Invest in sustainable energy: solar, wind, wave, ethanol, hydrogen, geothermal(this will kick the world economy into high gear as a secondary effect.) then: stop mining and pumping fossil fuels. Go back to returnable reusable bottles, compost able packaging. Build durable(1,000+ yr) infrastructure(like the Romans did. Some of their aquiducts, roads bridges, sewers, and buildings are still in use.). Use bicycles and walking for routine, local, travel. Replant the forests. Invest in research in sustainable farming and living. Stop dumping chemicals into the environment. Stop human population growth through education and economic incentives. Back off from the natural world. Have a smaller footprint. Love thy neighbor as thyself. That would be a reasonable start. Its a twelve step program for fossil fuel addiction.
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THIS IS NOT GOOD. “It is High Time to Warn People”
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methane oxidizes in the atmosphere to make CO2. hence the mildly elevated CO2. Oxidation of methane involves the hydroxyl radical (·OH) which is highly reactive with hydrogen, hence the mildly lower H2. " Oxidation by hydroxyl radicals Because of its hydroxyl radicals-mediated oxidation reaction, H2 is seen as an indirect greenhouse gas. Indeed, H2 oxidation exerts indirect incidences on methane and ozone concentrations, the latter being two greenhouse gases. Having a hydroxyl radicals-mediated oxidation rate similar to methane," http://www.eoearth.o...hydrogen_budget These readings are consistent with each other: Elevated methane, elevated methane oxidation product(CO2), co-oxidation of hydrogen. Since they have similar rate constants the CO2 gain and the H2 loss should be equal, they are. Nothing is out of whack.
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I'm showing that there is nothing wrong with the equipment at Barrow. SF6 is the least noisy gas they monitor. Barrow is in perfect agreement with the Greenland station. By the way mass spec is one of the most accurate measurements in science, it counts molecules. You get as many significant figures as you want.
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The barrow mass spec is clearly bonkers.
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More elevated methane measurements at Barrow. It still has'nt shown up else where, but AO+ traps air in the arctic.
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Have to give TerryM the credit, he linked to the article first, I missed his post.
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Thank you so much for the post. Well reasoned article. There is a good laugh at the end. But it is graveyard humor...
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There has been independent widespread measurement of elevated methane in the arctic. "Something too new to fully understand (although a report on it is being prepared for publication), Wofsy says, is a finding of notable concentrations of methane in the Arctic’s atmosphere that trace back to the sea. “Oceanographers have known for some time that there is production of methane in surface waters of the Arctic,” he says, but “it’s never been observed in the atmosphere.” Those oceanographic data, he says, suggest a source for this methane other than sediments or the melting of icy gas hydrates. The phenomenon also appears very widespread. “We observed that the ocean surface releases methane to the atmosphere all over the whole of the Arctic Ocean,” Wofsy says." http://www.sciencene...imate_surprises This is not good.
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Did you read the article? " the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years." " Igor Semiletov, of the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. "Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing,"
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In order be published now this article had to be submitted last spring i.e. It is based on last years data. So, what this article is stating is that the 8 megatons emitted last year, was not primarily the result of warming. But that is 0.01% of what is being observed this year. What is causing the other 99.99%? Also, this study is a model based. This model indicated that eruptions like the ones reported can't happen. Either the model is in error, or someone is telling a career ending whopper of a lie. Who is Colin Shultz? "I am a science journalist" http://colinschultz....ress.com/about/ We have run into him before. Remember "No tipping point for Arctic Ocean ice" He does have a masters in journalism. No post graduate science degree.
