Vergent
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Geologic methane seeps along boundaries of Arctic permafrost thaw and melting glaciers http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1480.html
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The central arctic farted.
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Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82° north http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n5/full/ngeo1452.html Old news, but its the peer reviewed paper.
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http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf This is from the article you cited. Why do you keep asking questions you have already answered?
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Methane jumps up to 700ppm, with radiative forcing of 16w/m^2 http://forecast.uchicago.edu/Projects/methane.html
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From the paper you link to. Do you actually ever read anything? This paper is from 2008. The first ebullition was observed in 2009, patches tens of meters in diameter. In 2011, they observe patches over a kilometer across, a 2,500 fold increase in area. Do you have some sort of crystal ball that tells you a 50GT release is not starting?
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Please back this statement up with some facts, or peer reviewed papers. And who said that the majority of the arctic methane was going to be released? An abrupt 1% release would be devastating. S&S have stated that a 50GT release is possible. That would look like this:
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Arctic Methane Flux from Wet-Sedge Tundra: Impact of Fe (III) additions, Spatial Heterogeneity and Season K Miller, D Lipson… - AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2011 - adsabs.harvard.edu Abstract Arctic wetlands release significant volumes of methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than CO2, to the atmosphere. However, the mechanisms governing methane emissions are not fully understood. This research asks the following two questions: Will ... Permafrost and gas hydrate related methane release in the Arctic and its impact on climate change-European cooperation for long-term monitoring: COST Action … J Greinert, T Treude - EGU General Assembly 2010, held 2- …, 2010 - adsabs.harvard.edu Abstract The Arctic is a key area in our warming world as massive releases of terrestrial and oceanic methane could increase atmospheric methane concentrations much faster than expected. The vast Arctic shelf might become a major emitter of methane in the future. ... All 3 versions The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain Arctic methane emissions and to locate and identify major sources. EG Nisbet, RE Fisher, D Lowry… - AGU Fall Meeting …, 2011 - adsabs.harvard.edu Abstract Arctic and boreal methane emissions come from various sources, most of which will respond strongly and rapidly both to year-on-year meteorological variations and to sustained climate warming. These sources, which may have played a major role both in ... Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions [TXT] from mblwhoilibrary.org ISA Isaksen, M Gauss, G Myhre… - 2011 - darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future ... Cited by 3 - Related articles - All 11 versions Rising Arctic Ocean temperatures cause gas hydrate destabilization and ocean acidification LH Rüpke, A Biastoch, T Treude, U Riebesell… - 2012 - eprints.ifm-geomar.de ... Here we present the results of a recent comprehensive study of the future fate of Arctic methane hydrates [5]. Our multi-disciplinary analysis provides a closer look into regional developments of submarine Arctic gas hydrate deposits under future global warming scenarios and ... Cached [PDF] Arctic methane sources: Isotopic evidence for atmospheric inputs [PDF] from nilu.no RE Fisher, S Sriskantharajah, D Lowry… - Geophysical …, 2011 - zardoz.nilu.no [1] By comparison of the methane mixing ratio and the carbon isotope ratio (d13CCH4) in Arctic air with regional background, the incremental input of CH4 in an air parcel and the source d13CCH4 signature can be determined. Using this technique the bulk Arctic CH4 ... Related articles - View as HTML - All 8 versions High methane flux from an arctic floodplain (Indigirka lowlands, eastern Siberia) J Van Huissteden, TC Maximov… - Journal of geophysical …, 2005 - europa.agu.org Methane fluxes from arctic tundra soils on a river terrace and floodplain in northeastern Siberia, measured with flux chambers, show a high spatial variability. The methane fluxes on the river terrace compare well with fluxes reported in other studies on tundra methane ... Cited by 31 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 7 versions Microbial perspectives of methane fluxes from melting permafrost D Wagner - 2009 - epic.awi.de ... This hampers prediction of the effects of climate warming on arctic methane fluxes, in particular when these predictions are based on models that do not take into account the specific nature of microbial populations in permafrost soils and sediments. ... Cached - All 6 versions Arctic Methane Workshop: An assessment of threats to Arctic and global warming; and an evaluation of techniques to counter these threats J Nissen - AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2011 - adsabs.harvard.edu Abstract This is a report from a workshop especially convened in order to identify means to reduce the threat of methane being emitted from sources in the Arctic in such quantities as to have a major impact on global warming. Major factors in the assessment of this threat are ... Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf [PDF] from instrument.com.cn N Shakhova, I Semiletov, A Salyuk, V Yusupov… - Science, 2010 - sciencemag.org Abstract Remobilization to the atmosphere of only a small fraction of the methane held in East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments could trigger abrupt climate warming, yet it is believed that sub-sea permafrost acts as a lid to keep this shallow methane reservoir in ... Cited by 82 - Related articles - All 22 versions http://scholar.googl...%2C5&as_sdtp=on Is that enough or do you want more?
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This is not bad.
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We seam to have missed discussing this. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/methane-in-the-twilight-z_2_b_1256215.html
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The energy is emitted from the surface then absorbed by GHG. It is then re-emitted in a random direction, half of which are down. If it hits a high albedo, it is reflected with another chance to escape into the universe. If it hits low albedo it is re-absorbed by the surface. You have lived up north, in winter, when it gets cloudy it warms up. On clear nights, temperatures drop rapidly. The clouds act in the same way as GHG.
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http://www.nature.com/ismej/journal/v4/n10/full/ismej201057a.html It only needs to be a few watts/M^2 to equal the green house effect locally. Something is melting the ice in the Kara.
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By all accounts the vast majority of methane from these vents goes into solution, where it is metabolized by bacteria. Some energy is released immediatly and some when it is eaten or rots. So, methane should be contributing to warming the arctic, through it's chemical energy.
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The percentage change is small so far. so I would suspect the gulf stream.
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AND ALL THE METHANE IS JUST HANGING OUT AT 400Mb FOR SPRING BRAKE?
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And exactly how do you know that? 90% of the arctic and Siberia are in the 1870+ category. You seem to be assuming that 1870+ = 1870.
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The SOLAS regulations pertaining to muster drills are fairly short and straightforward. They require that the drill take place within 24 hours of embarkation. The regulations differentiate between a muster and a "safety briefing." According to SOLAS rules, whenever new passengers embark, a safety briefing must be held "immediately before sailing, or immediately after sailing," consisting of at least a PA announcement. This may be supplemented with other info -- by written materials contained within each cabin, for instance. Regulations require that the safety briefing provides "clear instructions" that "detail the actions each person on board should follow in the event of an emergency." But a muster, where passengers are physically assembled, is required only within 24 hours of sailing. (In Concordia's case, the muster drill was scheduled to take place after additional passengers boarded on Day 2 in Savona, Italy, which would have been within the required 24-hour window.) As for life jackets, the rules don't specifically say that passengers must don them during the drills -- but they must be shown how to put them on. In recent years, lines with bigger ships, including Royal Caribbean and Carnival, have concluded that moving upward of 5,000 passengers, outfitted in bulky life jackets, to their muster stations had become unmanageable. These lines have instituted a new version of the muster drill. According to Bud Darr, director of environmental and health programs for the Cruise Line International Association (CLIA), a membership organization that represents the major cruise lines, passengers now assemble in large public rooms, instead of on the open decks, where they await further instructions.
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This is not good.
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If this turns into an emergency, the ice losses can be reversed quickly by keeping the pacific waters out of the arctic, eliminating 1/3 of the melt. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BS2007Heat.html The problem is, we have opened Pandora's box. http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2011/12/50-doomiest-graphs-of-2011.html As a species, we haven't realized it yet.
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http://www.biogeosci...-9-649-2012.pdf Hope they are right, but every model so far under predicts the arctic warming. This would not be bad.
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http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2012/01/gary-housers-rebuttal-realclimates.html Sorry, I posted the wrong link before.
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The in-sito data is not working for this year yet. I thing the graph rescaled to ppm because the data went over 2000, the label didn't change, is all.
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Thanks for pointing that out. There is a good discussion there about this model. The current article is about this cartoon explanation of weather vs climate, should be required viewing for this forum.
