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Deck Pic

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Everything posted by Deck Pic

  1. Deck Pic
    It's a 4 hour storm. I'm worried you and I waste too much time dropping to 33. Euro is 36 at DCA at 1 am...yikes...I think it's wrong, but still.
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  3. Deck Pic
    Cool story
  4. Deck Pic
    It's fine. ~0.35-0.4" for me and you.
  5. Deck Pic
    Not sure if anyone posted 0z ICON
  6. Deck Pic
    as far as jacks and bands, I don't trust this GFS run at all. But the beefing up of qpf is a good sign. Euro does a really good job with QPF even if it is off on timing or details.
  7. Deck Pic
    GFS smokes me.
  8. Deck Pic
    latest run is a broad 2-4" over whole area at 10:1
  9. Deck Pic
    4-6 hour event. 0.30-0.35 qpf is a good bet for us. I'd go no higher than 12:1 because we might burn a little on rain/mix at the beginning, and temps will be borderline. I'd probably go 3-4" for you. 2-3" for me with my surface temp issues.
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  12. Deck Pic
    lol no. More. March is a winter month for us, especially you.
  13. Deck Pic
    This one could be good, and we won't have to be up all night. It scoots out. I think your backyard looks pretty good for 3-5".
  14. Deck Pic
    hell yeah it is. It's probably overdone. But not by much.
  15. Deck Pic
    Here's the 1.33k at 36 hours - not sure how skilled it is toward the end of the run.. It precips lightly after this. But 90%+ over.
  16. Deck Pic
    It's a quick hitter...like 11 pm to 6 am
  17. Deck Pic
    It's a pretty run
  18. Deck Pic
    no need...the models are holding or trending better.
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  20. Deck Pic
    Here's the Ukie
  21. Deck Pic
    euro was a solid run. 3-4" over my house.
  22. Deck Pic
    bleh
  23. Deck Pic
    No way we could ever know. The idea of models beefing up QPF does seem to have some validity based on past experience
  24. Deck Pic
    0z Canadian has the same feature of a precip minima over my house. Dry is the problem. It's basically 1-3".
  25. Deck Pic
    Yeah...NBM is a good conservative resource. So many models ingested. And the spread around lag seems to keep it from swinging much from run to run https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm
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