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Deck Pic

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Everything posted by Deck Pic

  1. as far as jacks and bands, I don't trust this GFS run at all. But the beefing up of qpf is a good sign. Euro does a really good job with QPF even if it is off on timing or details.
  2. latest run is a broad 2-4" over whole area at 10:1
  3. 4-6 hour event. 0.30-0.35 qpf is a good bet for us. I'd go no higher than 12:1 because we might burn a little on rain/mix at the beginning, and temps will be borderline. I'd probably go 3-4" for you. 2-3" for me with my surface temp issues.
  4. lol no. More. March is a winter month for us, especially you.
  5. This one could be good, and we won't have to be up all night. It scoots out. I think your backyard looks pretty good for 3-5".
  6. hell yeah it is. It's probably overdone. But not by much.
  7. Here's the 1.33k at 36 hours - not sure how skilled it is toward the end of the run.. It precips lightly after this. But 90%+ over.
  8. no need...the models are holding or trending better.
  9. No way we could ever know. The idea of models beefing up QPF does seem to have some validity based on past experience
  10. 0z Canadian has the same feature of a precip minima over my house. Dry is the problem. It's basically 1-3".
  11. Yeah...NBM is a good conservative resource. So many models ingested. And the spread around lag seems to keep it from swinging much from run to run https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm
  12. Lying to oneself, delusional thinking, and cognitive dissonance are often comorbid with the masochism that comes with being a mid-atlantic snow lover.
  13. FINAL CALL 2-4" W of line from Leesburg to Westminster with 4-6" lollies 1-3" W of line Manassas to BWI T-2" ESE of that
  14. we know where the meso bands will be (Parr's Ridge) No reason to wait.
  15. Part of it is the duration. It's like a 5 hour storm. It would be nice to enhance QPF and duration
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