as far as jacks and bands, I don't trust this GFS run at all. But the beefing up of qpf is a good sign.
Euro does a really good job with QPF even if it is off on timing or details.
4-6 hour event. 0.30-0.35 qpf is a good bet for us. I'd go no higher than 12:1 because we might burn a little on rain/mix at the beginning, and temps will be borderline. I'd probably go 3-4" for you. 2-3" for me with my surface temp issues.
Yeah...NBM is a good conservative resource. So many models ingested. And the spread around lag seems to keep it from swinging much from run to run
https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm