1234snow

I’m curious to see today if short range models back down on QPF after the changeover. It’s happened a few times before leading up to an event lol.

So far the 12z NAM holds serve. Solid 2-3 inches across entire area.

0z NAM with its beefiest run yet! Widespread 2-4 across the state. High totals out west but may be mixed with a good amount of sleet. Backside snow is stronger this run 10-12z in the valley.

Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are dropping big highs out of Canada late in their runs, into the front range of the Rockies, and then southeastward.  Some of those highs are 1045s.  That is significant early cold if that verifies.  I normally don't talk about stuff that far out...but the 500 pattern would support a major cold outbreak for the eastern 2/3s of the country for the first half of November(edit...it did say February...LOL).  There were places in Wyoming that smashed record lows this AM - not the same air mass as I am discussing...just illustrates the impressive early season cold.  Both models bring a system out fo the GOM that ride the Arctic front's boundary as either a northern Miller A or a Miller B.  I know it is out there in terms of time...but man, those are some big highs.  If those keep showing up, they will be the antithesis of what happened to begin October and a heckuva a lot more fun to talk about.  LOL.

Flash Flood Emergency issued for Knox County.

Camp Creek gust of 123mph was ruled erroneous after quality control. Gust was revised to 81mph.

I think you are correct to ignore the red data on that chart. It is unreliable.  The peak gust data (green) is probably accurate, so nearly 90mph.

This morning’s rains have already brought .75 to over an inch for much of SWVA.

Breaking news: It’s raining again.

0z GFS does not back down with the heavy rain totals.

Just received some lighting and thunder. Pouring out of buckets right now.

Light flurries have created a dusting in some side roads this morning.

Just takes one big storm imo make the season a memorable one.

Very chilly night watching the lunar eclipse but it was worth it. Down to 14 currently.

The NAM is not onboard with the midweek system. I’m afraid the FV3 is on a lonely island.

18z FV3 was wave after wave of snow and cold in the long range.

I’ll share a few different graphics from the 12z Euro.

850 mb temps got to a rare -30 degrees C at the end of the run. -35 values as you get into Ohio Valley



Also pushing 8” of QPF in southern areas. Widespread AN precip across Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

The RGEM pretty much saw it 40+ hours out and I believe the NAM 12km sort of sniffed it out around 30 hours in advance. The NAM 3km on the other hand never really did grasp it. I believe as one of the posters here described it, the 3km sometimes seems to try too hard on the terrain features and elevation. With all that considered, the actual event overperformed all models at least for me.

Picked up around an inch at the house. Very pleasant surprise today. Gets me pumped for the back half of winter.

I think the short range models may of been a little too warm the past few days with the leading edge. Just now running into snow heading into Abingdon.

Something I’ve been eyeing the past few days. Glad it planned out.

Perhaps a quick burst before a quick transition? I love it when these surprise events are shown but they rarely pan out.

I’m guessing similar to last Saturday morning. Quick burst of snow. Models have trended ever so slightly colder tomorrow. Still holding around freezing mark today in SWVA.

Edit: RGEM had freezing rain as far south as Chatty in the morning.

Starting to see some potential for some flakes or a mix tomorrow morning and afternoon for NE TN and SWVA. The NAM, RGEM, and FV3 all show the possibility for some mixed precip before the warm air pushes in.

0z RGEM still giving some in East TN hope with about an inch on the front end Saturday morning.

Pretty good snow in Chilhowie.

Ping reports show switch over in Wise and Boone. Very crudy day